CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY- VOTING ON VOTING

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 003061 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2016 TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL SUBJECT: CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY- VOTING ON VOTING Classified By: Ecopol Counselor Andrew Erickson for reason 1.4 (b). ¶1. (SBU) After months of stalemate, the Constituent Assembly (CA) will take up its final pending rule of order-- its voting mechanism-- November 14-15. Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party has publicly declared that if it cannot reach consensus with the opposition on its "mixed proposal," which purports to give the opposition a two-thirds vote on controversial measures, it will go forward with approval of a majority vote for all constitutional changes. ¶2. (SBU) Six opposition political parties support a two-thirds vote, including Podemos and the National Unity (UN) parties. Several opposition party representatives have already filed an action with the Constitutional Tribunal questioning the legality of articles 1 (which declared the CA plenipotentiary) and 71 (which deals with the voting mechanism, based on the MAS' use of a simple majority for procedural votes to date) of the rules of order. The civic committees of the "media luna," the departments of Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni and Pando, have declared their support for the lawsuit. ¶3. (C) Comment: The MAS has given its CA representatives through mid-week to reach consensus with the opposition. However, at the MAS party congress this weekend (septel), President Morales criticized MAS CA delegate Raul Prada for negotiating with the opposition, and removed him as the party's leader for the La Paz department in the Assembly, thus calling the MAS' true intentions into question. The vote on the voting mechanism for constitutional changes is critical-- it may be the opposition's last real chance to impact Bolivia's new constitution. If the MAS pushes through its "mixed proposal," which essentially provides for a majority vote, it could gain carte blanche for defining Bolivia's political, economic and social future. At the very least, a MAS win on the voting mechanism will undermine the legitimacy of the Constituent Assembly, and risks generating further civil unrest from a disgruntled and disenfranchised opposition. End comment. GOLDBERG