CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY: TRUE MAS INTENTIONS?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 002683 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2016 TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL SUBJECT: CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY: TRUE MAS INTENTIONS? REF: LA PAZ 2636 Classified By: Amb. Philip S. Goldberg for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Poloff met with approximately twenty Constituent Assembly representatives in Sucre September 28-29 and observed the Assembly's chaotic operations. Following the MAS' approval of Article 1 of the rules of order by simple majority (reftel),the principal debate among opposition delegates was whether they could appeal the MAS' actions given the Assembly's now "original" and plenipotentiary nature. The next major question to be decided is whether approval of the constitution will require a two-thirds vote (as mentioned in the enabling legislation) or whether the MAS will unilaterally change procedure to allow for a simple majority-- and complete MAS dominance. While the Assembly will not likely debate this mechanism this week, opposition representatives worry that the MAS will impose its will in the end. If the MAS continues to approve the rules of debate by simple majority, there will be little doubt about the MAS' true intentions, and even less room for the opposition to influence the new constitution. End summary. -------------- CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY CHAOS -------------- ¶2. (C) Poloff met with approximately twenty Constituent Assembly representatives in Sucre September 28-29 and observed the Assembly's chaotic operations at close hand. To open the September 28 session, MAS President Silvia Lazarte called an hour-long roll call vote instead of using the electronic voting system. During the chaos that ensued, dozens of Assembly delegates competed for the floor while Lazarte attempted to drown them out. Throughout the session, MAS delegates grandstanded for the benefit of social sector leaders who stared down on the plenary from the upper balcony. The session dragged on for hours in confusion before delegates began debate on Article 1 of the rules of order, which pertained to whether the Assembly would be "original" and plenipotentiary to "refound" Bolivia. The list of speakers included 98 representatives, but after only 20 had spoken, Lazarte abruptly curtailed debate and called a vote. As reported reftel, the MAS approved Article 1 by simple majority. -------------- CHANGING THE RULES? -------------- ¶3. (C) Outside the Assembly, the principal debate among opposition delegates was whether they could appeal the MAS' use of a simple majority vote given the Assembly's now all powerful nature. Some in the MAS argue that because the Assembly is "original" and superior to the other state powers, the Constitutional Tribunal does not have the authority to review its decisions. Most legal experts assert that while the MAS is calling the Assembly "original," the Assembly cannot operate in a vacuum, as the current Bolivian constitution expressly recognizes the authority of the Constitutional Tribunal to review constitutional matters. One National Revolutionary Movement (MNR) delegate may appeal to the Constitutional Tribunal, but opposition delegates voiced concern that an appeal would be pointless. Some Podemos delegates discussed an appeal to the Interamerican Court in San Jose, Costa Rica, but admitted that process would take too long and any eventual ruling would be difficult to enforce. Virtually all of the delegates believed the MAS will pass its own rules of order, article by article by simple majority. (NOTE: On October 3, the Assembly approved eleven non-controversial articles of the draft regulations, each by a two-thirds vote. The MNR and the National Unity (UN) parties joined MAS delegates to LA PAZ 00002683 002 OF 002 approve each article by more than the 170 votes required for a two-thirds majority. END NOTE). -------------- COMPROMISE UNLIKELY; VOTING RULES KEY -------------- ¶4. (C) The next major question to be decided is whether the constitution will require a two-thirds vote (as mentioned in the enabling legislation) or whether the MAS will unilaterally change procedure to allow for a simple majority-- and complete MAS dominance. The MAS' latest proposal is for a simple majority vote, but gives the opposition a limited veto to force a two-thirds vote on certain constitutional measures and provides that if the two-thirds vote fails, the matter would be decided via popular referendum. Some small parties may support this proposal, but the larger opposition parties indicate they will reject it. ¶5. (C) While the Assembly will not likely debate this mechanism this week, opposition representatives worried that a compromise with the MAS is not likely. One delegate reported that MAS delegates are not allowed to negotiate or even interact with the opposition. (NOTE: In support of this point, a MAS delegate told poloff that he was afraid to meet in person, citing the culture of suspicion within his party and the MAS' strict party discipline. END NOTE). UN party delegates worried that because Morales raised his supporters' expectations regarding the Assembly, the president cannot now abandon the simple majority vote. They noted that the MAS had thwarted negotiations numerous times, commenting that the MAS seemed to want to generate conflict. Podemos delegates cited the MAS' passage of the index of the rules of order by simple majority, as well as the passage of Article 1, as evidence that the MAS has undemocratic and authoritarian designs on the Constituent Assembly. Small opposition party delegates shared that concern, but also worried about Podemos radicalizing its position. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) The MAS appears to be using its familiar syndicalist style to push forward its agenda in the Assembly. While the MAS' true colors may be beginning to show, the real test will come later. It is unclear what path the opposition will take-- challenging the MAS via 1) the domestic courts, 2) the international arena, 3) the creation of a extra-legal "parallel" Constituent Assembly, or 4) street protests. Eastern Bolivian civic committees are planning a "national meeting of democratic Bolivia" but have not yet specified a date. If the Assembly continues to approve the MAS' rules of debate by simple majority, there will be little doubt about the MAS' intentions, and little room for the opposition to influence the new constitution. Still, we assess that only by continuing to work within the Assembly can the opposition hope to expose the MAS' anti-democratic intentions. End comment. GOLDBERG