BOLIVIAN GLACIERS RECEDING RAPIDLY

UNCLAS LA PAZ 002674 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/AND LPETRONI BRASILIA FOR JSTORY SAN JOSE FOR BLINK USAID/LAC FOR JBISSON USAID/EGAT FOR DMULLER AND CELRON USAID/COLOMBIA FOR BBAYLE COMMERCE FOR JANGLIN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON PGOV BL SUBJECT: BOLIVIAN GLACIERS RECEDING RAPIDLY ¶1. (U) Summary: Bolivian glaciers are receding so rapidly, say scientists, that most could disappear within the next ten to 15 years, with alarming implications for potable water and hydroelectric energy supplies. Scientists tie the last two decades' acceleration in glacial melt to the greater intensity and frequency of El Nino events, which in turn are linked to gradually rising global temperatures. GOB officials are aware of the glaciers' recession but appear ill-equipped to cope with what may be serious consequences. End summary. ¶2. (U) The small glaciers of the Bolivian Andes are receding so rapidly, say Bolivian and French scientists, that the majority could disappear within the next ten to 15 years. According to a 14-year study conducted by the Bolivian Institute of Hydrology and the French Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement, glacier melt has nearly tripled since the early 1980s, with glaciers receding more quickly than at any time since the mid-19th century, when the Little Ice Age ended locally. Institute of Hydrology Deputy Director Etson Ramirez told Econoff October 3 that melting accelerated particularly quickly in the last five to ten years, ultimately resulting in the near total disappearance of the Chacaltaya glacier (representative of 80 percent of Bolivian glaciers, which typically have surface areas of less than one square kilometer) and significant reductions in the size of two others. Chacaltaya alone shrunk more than 40 percent between 1992 and 1998; today only traces remain. ¶3. (U) Scientists tie the last two decades' acceleration in glacial melt to the greater intensity and frequency of El Nino events, which in turn are linked to gradually rising global temperatures. Ramirez pointed out that El Nino events now occur approximately once every two years, as opposed to once every 12 or more years, and appear to be related to higher average global temperatures and corresponding shifts in weather patterns. He explained that Andean glaciers are particularly sensitive to climatic fluctuations due to their position in the tropics and to the mechanisms by which they function. In contrast to glaciers in the Alps and other northern hemisphere mountain ranges, which undergo long accumulation periods in winter, Andean glaciers undergo relatively short accumulation periods in summer, when precipitation increases; at the same time, the summer's high radiation levels accelerate melting, so that Andean glaciers typically accumulate mass less rapidly than their northern counterparts. ¶4. (U) Ramirez and other scientists point to alarming implications for potable water and hydroelectric energy supplies, noting that declining glacial runoff will seriously affect the cities of La Paz and El Alto, which together rely on run-off for an estimated 80 percent of potable water and 70 percent of the hydroelectric power generated by the region's ten plants. Scientists predict significant water and energy shortages by 2009, when demand for both resources will likely far outpace supply. The cities' two million inhabitants will be sorely affected, as will the many rural communities relying on glacial run-off to replenish rivers and watersheds and to provide water for crops, irrigation projects, and livestock. ¶5. (U) Comment: According to Ramirez, GOB officials are aware of the glaciers' rapid recession but appear ill-equipped to cope with what may be serious consequences. As recently as a few years ago, officials refused to accept the scale of the problem; today, while they recognize it, they are far from figuring out how to manage it. Funding for feasibility and engineering studies is scarce, and officials have little understanding of the scale of potential consequences. Equally alarming, perhaps, is that Bolivian glaciers' recession is not unique: glaciers in Ecuador and elsewhere in the Andes appear to be undergoing the same phenomenon. End comment. GOLDBERG