BOLIVIAN ECONOMY HUMS ALONG DESPITE UNCERTAINTY

UNCLAS LA PAZ 002638 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/AND TREASURY FOR SGOOCH ENERGY FOR CDAY AND SLADISLAW E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV ENRG EPET ETRD BL SUBJECT: BOLIVIAN ECONOMY HUMS ALONG DESPITE UNCERTAINTY REF: LA PAZ 2599 ¶1. Summary: Bolivia's GDP grew by 4.5 percent during the first semester of 2006 due to high international prices for the country's main exports: hydrocarbons and minerals. Exports grew by 52 percent in the first six months compared with the same period in 2005, contributing to an increase in international reserves to record amounts. However, investment prospects are poor due to legal uncertainty and statist GOB economic policies. Inflation increased slightly during the first eight months, while the boliviano appreciated marginally. The government had a fiscal surplus in mid-September, with a projected year-end surplus of 1.5 percent. Bank deposits and loan portfolios increased slightly during the first eight months. Although the short-term picture is positive, several risk factors threaten long-term growth. End summary. Positive Growth Trend Continues -------------- ¶2. Bolivia's GDP grew by 4.5 percent in the first half of 2006, surpassing projections of 4.1 percent. (Note: 2005 GDP was USD 8.7 billion. End note.) This growth was due mainly to high international prices for the nation's principal exports -- hydrocarbons and minerals -- and an increase in domestic consumption of cement and electricity. During the first semester of 2006, the hydrocarbons sector grew by 12.4 percent, while the mining sector grew by 18.7 percent. Silver prices increased by 55 percent, gold by 38 percent, zinc by 114 percent, and natural gas by 58 percent in the first half of 2006 compared with the same period in 2005. Bolivia signed an agreement with Argentina in June that increased the price of Bolivian gas exports to its neighbor from USD 3.2 per million BTU to USD 5 per million BTU between July 15 and year-end 2006. Exports Increase -------------- ¶3. In the first half of 2006, Bolivia had a USD 498 million trade surplus. During that period, the value of exports increased by 52 percent in comparison with the first half of 2005, reaching USD 1.71 billion. The value of natural gas exports increased by 75 percent, zinc by 145 percent, and silver by 109 percent in the first six months. Gas export value increases were due to both higher prices and higher volumes resulting from greater demand by Argentina and Brazil. Mineral export value increases were driven mainly by rising prices. Export growth, along with a 67 percent increase in remittances from outside the country in the first semester of 2006 compared with the same period in 2005, contributed to the increase in net international reserves held by the Central Bank to USD 2.77 billion at the end of August 2006. But FDI Prospects are Poor -------------- ¶4. Net Foreign Direct Investment reached USD 103.5 million in the first semester of 2006, compared with negative 23.3 million during the same period in 2005. Although the total amount of FDI received in the first semester of this year (USD 210.5 million) was only a slight increase over 2005 (USD 206.9 million),the amount of capital flight in the first half of 2006 (USD 107 million) was significantly less than that of the same period last year (USD 230 million). The mining sector received the largest amount of FDI (USD 118 million),followed by hydrocarbons (USD 47 million) and industry (USD 25 million). Although the investment picture has improved compared with 2005, long-term prospects are not rosy. The GOB's policy of nationalizing hydrocarbons and tightening state control over several other strategic sectors has deepened uncertainty and weakened the investment climate. Inflation Increases, Boliviano Appreciates -------------- ¶5. The inflation rate decreased from 3.7 percent at the end of first quarter 2006 to 3.5 percent by the end of June, within the 3 to 5 percent target range established by the Central Bank for inflation at year-end. However, inflation increased to 4.4 percent at the end of August. The Bolivian Economics Center predicts that inflation will stay fairly low, around 4 percent, for the year if the GOB manages public finances well and the currencies of Bolivia's principle trading partners depreciate. During the first semester of 2006, the Bolivian national currency, the boliviano, appreciated nominally by 0.25 percent. Money supply (M2) increased dramatically during the first six months of 2006, growing by 10.2 percent. Bolivians absorbed the increased liquidity, sharply increasing their holdings of bolivianos. First Semester Fiscal Surplus, Public Debt Reduced -------------- -------------- ¶6. The GOB had a surplus of USD 437 million during the first semester, which reached USD 578 million by mid-September 2006, according to government sources. The surplus resulted mainly from high prices received for the country's main exports and increased tax (including hydrocarbons taxes) and customs collections. Press reports indicate that the National Tax Service collected USD 600 million more during the first semester of 2006 than in the same period of 2005. Treasury contacts told Econoff that Bolivia's fiscal deficit will narrow to zero by year-end, while the press quoted the Finance Minister on September 27 saying that he projects Bolivia to have a fiscal surplus of around 1.5 percent at year-end. Bolivia's original projection of a 3.4 percent deficit was revised due to higher than expected tax revenues and lack of institutional capacity for executing spending plans. Foreign external debt was reduced significantly by IMF and World Bank debt forgiveness during the first seven months of 2006 to USD 3.15 billion on July 1, compared with USD 4.7 billion at the end of the first quarter. Internal debt increased by 17 percent compared with year-end 2005 to USD 2.99 billion as of June 30. Banking System Sound in First Semester -------------- ¶7. Total bank deposits remained stable during the second quarter of 2006 and increased slightly between June and August from USD 3.15 billion to USD 3.26 billion. Loan portfolios grew marginally during the second quarter and increased from USD 2.65 billion to USD 2.71 billion between June and August. Loans in default decreased by almost two percentage points during the second quarter. Bank liquidity remained high at USD 1.2 billion as of August 31. Economic Indicators March 31 June 30 Aug 31 -------------- -------------- Inflation rate 3.72 pct 3.5 pct 4.4 pct Local currency appreciation 0.38 pct 0.25 pct 0.12 pct Bs/USD exchange rate 8.07 8.06 8.05 Exports (USD) 798.2 mn 1.71 bn Net International Reserves (USD)2.014 bn 2.47 bn 2.77 bn Public Sector surplus (USD) 220.8 mn 437 mn 578 mn Public Debt (USD) 7.002 bn 7.66 bn 6.14 bn Public Debt (pct of 2005 GDP) 80.2 pct 88 pct 70 pct Bank deposits (USD) 3.15 bn 3.15 bn 3.26 bn Bank loan portfolio (USD) 2.60 bn 2.65 bn 2.71 bn Portfolio in default 12.1 pct 10.4 pct 10.3 pct Bank liquidity (USD) 1.20 bn 1.11 bn 1.20 bn Sources: Bolivian Central Bank, UDAPE, INE Comment: Risks to Growth Projections -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Although macroeconomic conditions remained positive during the first semester of 2006, many risk factors threaten mid and long-term growth. Bolivia stands to lose its U.S. trade preferences under ATPDEA in December, which implies a decrease in exports and a loss of thousands of manufacturing jobs. The GOB's policies of increasing state control in the hydrocarbons and other key sectors likely mean that private investment will remain low. Also, the increasing politicization of the Central Bank could threaten macroeconomic stability (reftel). End comment. GOLDBERG