MORALES' RHETORIC LEADS TO INCREASED CRITICISM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 002111

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR A/S T.SHANNON AND PDAS C.SHAPIRO
STATE ALSO FOR WHA/AND P.FRENCH AND L.PETRONI
MCC FOR A.KIRSCHENBAUM
NSC FOR D.FISK
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: MORALES' RHETORIC LEADS TO INCREASED CRITICISM

REF: A. LA PAZ 1337


B. LA PAZ 1517

Classified By: Amb. David N. Greenlee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: President Morales launched his "agrarian
revolution" August 2 in Ucurena, Cochabamba, declaring that
if Congress does not approve the executive's land reform
bill, indigenous communities will close Congress for its
"ineffectiveness." Opposition parties from eastern Bolivia
claim that Morales made the announcement in a town which
symbolizes east-west conflict in order to provoke the east,
and have criticized Morales' hard line approach. While
Morales might have sufficient indigenous support on land
reform issues to pressure Congress, other indigenous groups
are beginning to dampen their enthusiasm for the MAS. These
conflicts, along with recent clashes with the prefects, the
church, and intra-party squabbles over organization of the
Constituent Assembly, are creating significant pressure for
Morales, who is beginning to show signs of stress. End
summary.


2. (C) President Morales launched his "agrarian revolution"
August 2 in the department of Cochabamba, declaring that if
Congress does not pass the executive's land reform bill,
indigenous communities will close Congress for its
"ineffectiveness." (Note: As reported in reftels, Morales'
land reform involves the redistribution of government-owned
lands and privately-owned "unproductive" large landholdings.
The proposed reforms are extremely unpopular in eastern
Bolivia, where the bulk of the land would be redistributed.
End note.)


3. (C) Opposition parties from eastern Bolivia claim that
Morales made his August 2 announcement in a town which
symbolizes east-west conflict in order to provoke the east.
(Note: In the 1950's, western Bolivians organized in Ucurena
for an attack on Santa Cruz, ultimately killing many men,
women and children of that department. End note).
According to a Santa Cruz journalist, Morales' frustration
with the east is increasing. In a recent interview, the
president displayed overt hostility towards Santa Cruz.
Morales asked his personal secretary why he had granted a
Santa Cruz journalist an interview, refused to answer any
questions about the department, and after ten minutes,
stormed out.


4. (C) In response to Morales' threat to close Congress, the
opposition criticized his hard line approach, publicly
blasting him for relying on force instead of consensus and
for his lack of respect for democracy. On August 3, the
opposition said if Morales closes Congress, his own
resignation should follow. An opposition senator told the
Ambassador August 3 that Morales and the MAS congressional
leadership have been increasingly resorting to threats to
close the Congress to achieve the results they want.
Separately, two members of Congress told poloff August 4 that
Morales' Ucurena attack is "typical," and that GOB officials
are already trying to soften the negative public impact by
charging the press with misquoting him. They also said the
executive's land reform bill will not pass Congress without
significant changes based on consensus.


5. (C) While Morales might have sufficient indigenous support
on land reform to pressure Congress, other indigenous groups
are beginning to show less enthusiasm for the MAS. Several
indigenous organizations have complained to poloff that
Morales has excluded them from the MAS project. One analyst
said several indigenous organizations are collaborating on
their own draft constitution, which they plan to use to
challenge the MAS' draft later this year.

LA PAZ 00002111 002 OF 002




6. (C) Comment: These conflicts, along with recent clashes
with the prefects, the church, and intra-party squabbles over
organization of the Constituent Assembly, are creating
mounting pressure for Morales, who is beginning to show signs
of stress. We nonetheless have yet to see any concerted or
significant opposition response to what may be emerging as
vulnerabilities that could be exploited to political
advantage. For now, the only real opposition to Morales is
that which he generates himself. End comment.
GREENLEE