FINAL ELECTION RESULTS: "MAS" OF THE SAME

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001891 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/AND L.PETRONI E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2016 TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL SUBJECT: FINAL ELECTION RESULTS: "MAS" OF THE SAME Classified By: Amb. David N. Greenlee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Final July 2 Constituent Assembly election results gave the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party 137 of 255 seats and ensured several opposition parties, including Podemos and National Unity (UN),a significant presence in the Assembly. In the week following the election, political hardball has intensified as the MAS looks for ways to reach the still-elusive two-thirds vote necessary to control Bolivia's constitutional process. It remains far from certain, however, that the MAS will reach that pivotal two-thirds majority. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Final July 2 Constituent Assembly election results gave the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party 137, or 53.7 percent, of 255 seats and 50.72 percent of the national vote (just below the 53.74 percent the MAS won in December 2005). The MAS won seven of nine departments: Chuquisaca (54 percent of the vote),La Paz (64 percent),Cochabamba (60 percent), Oruro (60 percent),Potosi (54 percent),Tarija (40 percent), and Santa Cruz (26 percent). The MAS' anti-autonomy position prevailed in the departments of La Paz, Oruro, Chuquisaca, Cochabamba, and Potosi, with the "media luna" departments (Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando, and Tarija) supporting departmental autonomy. ¶3. (SBU) Several opposition parties will have a significant presence in the Assembly. Podemos won 60 seats, followed by the National Revolutionary Movement (MNR) (comprised of the MNR, Camino al Cambio, and the A3-MNR) with 18, and by the UN and the Free Bolivia Movement with eight representatives each. Potosi Mayor Rene Joaquino's Social Alliance (AS) won six seats, and the National Concertation (an evangelical Christian citizens' group) won five. Seven other parties/citizens' groups won three or fewer seats each. ¶4. (SBU) Unlike in December, no voting centers will be required to conduct a re-vote due to irregularities. Final voter turnout was 83.65 percent, almost identical to December's rate of 84.51 percent. ¶5. (C) Comment: Post-election political hardball has intensified as the MAS tries to reach the still-elusive two-thirds vote necessary to control Bolivia's constitutional process. Opposition party operators told us the MAS is attempting to "pick off" their delegates by offering employment or other incentives and said persons refusing such offers are "black-balled." The MAS is also continuing attempts to weaken its opposition, even offering one non-MAS mayor Bolivia's Embassy in Japan. Because the MAS and social sectors were calling for La Paz Prefect Jose Luis Paredes' resignation for supporting autonomy, he canceled his scheduled trip to the United States, fearing he would be replaced if he left the country. Likewise, Potosi Mayor Joaquino believes if he travels to organize his party's Assembly delegates, MAS loyalists will accuse him of failing to discharge his duties and demand his resignation. In short, the MAS machine is moving full steam ahead. While Morales convened his Assembly representatives last week in Cochabamba, opposition parties have done little to defend their ranks, much less organize any real "offense." It remains far from certain, however, that the MAS will pick off enough delegates to reach the two-thirds majority it needs. End comment. GREENLEE