COUNTDOWN TO CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 001597 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/AND L.PETRONI E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2016 TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL SUBJECT: COUNTDOWN TO CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTION REF: A. LA PAZ 1322 ¶B. LA PAZ 1414 Classified By: Amb. David N. Greenlee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: With three weeks to go before the July 2 Constituent Assembly elections, polls in La Paz, Cochabamba and Santa Cruz, together representing 70 percent of the population, indicate Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party will win approximately 45 percent of the vote, with Podemos and the National Unity (UN) party grabbing 10 percent each and the National Revolutionary Movement (MNR) taking around 5 percent. Much of the population remains undecided due to voter fatigue and lack of information about the Constituent Assembly. While voters generally seem to favor departmental autonomy in the national referendum also scheduled for July 2, the department-by-department results will leave the Constituent Assembly the unenviable role of putting referendum results into practice. With polling even less reliable than that available in December and increased voter apathy, election results are impossible to foretell, although all signs still indicate the MAS will win less than the 2/3 necessary to control the Assembly. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) With three weeks to go before the July 2 Constituent Assembly elections, polls in La Paz, Cochabamba and Santa Cruz, together representing 70 percent of the population, indicate Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party will win approximately 45 percent of the vote, with Podemos and the National Unity (UN) party grabbing 10 percent each and the National Revolutionary Movement (MNR) taking around 5 percent (data from May 29 Apoyo poll). Because of the expense involved, no political party is polling in all 70 electoral districts; instead parties are conducting private polls in limited districts where interest is high or competition fierce. ¶3. (SBU) Twenty to twenty-five percent of the population remains undecided due to voter fatigue and a lack of information about the Constituent Assembly. The National Electoral Court (CNE) is running a series of supplements in the major daily newspapers offering party-by-party position statements on a variety of topics -- to date covering the major issues the Assembly will address, possible forms of government, and the role of the legislative branch. The CNE has also launched an educational campaign called "Road to the Constituent Assembly," in which six persons representative of Bolivian society travel together in a bus which breaks down. In the story, released via a series of TV spots and cartoon pamphlets, the travelers jointly decide what path they will choose, thus serving as a teaching point for the mechanics of the Constituent Assembly election, how the Assembly will function, and the types of issues it will address. ¶4. (C) Voters seem to favor departmental autonomy in the national referendum also scheduled for July 2. To this point, President Morales and Vice President Garcia Linera have allowed other MAS officials to take the lead opposing autonomy, given their previous declarations favoring it, but that appears to be changing. On June 12, Morales stated that he opposes "the autonomy proposed by Santa Cruz." In the La Paz department's altiplano, the MAS has purchased radio ads encouraging the party loyal to "vote no." Autonomy continues to be a high priority for the "media luna" departments of Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando and Tarija, setting the stage for a possible east-west split on the issue. Because the referendum results will be enforced by department (some departments can opt in favor, while others may opt out),the Constituent Assembly will have the unenviable role of structuring the new government in accordance with the results of the referendum. ¶5. (C) Comment: With polling even less reliable than that available in December and increased voter apathy, election results are impossible to foretell, although all signs still LA PAZ 00001597 002 OF 002 indicate the MAS will win less than the 2/3 necessary to control the Assembly (reftels). Morales' popularity remains high, but he faces discontent from Santa Cruz and the business sector and increasing conflicts over land. His economic plan, due out later this week, could generate additional criticism from the business community, but regardless of content, it is not likely to have a negative effect on his popularity with the masses. End comment. GREENLEE