OPPOSITION PROSPECTS ARE WEAK FOR THE CONSTITUENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 001317

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL SOCI
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PROSPECTS ARE WEAK FOR THE CONSTITUENT
ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS


Classified By: Charge D'Affaires David Robinson for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The opposition to President Evo Morales,
Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party enters the campaign for
the Constituent Assembly elections on July 2 even weaker than
before the general elections in December 2006. The
best-known opposition leaders--Podemos, Jorge Quiroga and
UN,s Samuel Doria Medina--have been largely absent from the
political scene, and their parties have no clear agenda other
than opposition to Morales. The parties have fractured into
more groupings than competed in December, which could further
splinter the non-MAS vote and weaken their electoral chances.
Nevertheless, the rules of the electoral game and the
opposition,s strong support in eastern Bolivia boost its
hopes somewhat. In short, the opposition has little hope of
winning a majority of the 255 delegates, but appears
sufficiently competitive to win at least one third--or 85
delegates--the amount needed to block constitutional
amendments and curb unfettered MAS control of the Assembly.
END SUMMARY.

Lacking Strong National Leadership
--------------

2. (SBU) The opposition to President Morales is weak and
divided as campaign season begins for the July 2 Constituent
Assembly elections. The most serious deficiency is in
national leadership. After the December general elections,
Morales, main challenger, Jorge Quiroga, virtually
disappeared from the political scene. One analyst compared
Quiroga to a ghost, appearing to make brief statements and
then disappearing again. Most observers believe his
post-election performance makes him all but irrelevant, and
leaves his Podemos party struggling to find a coherent
message or program to appeal to voters. Podemos contacts
also tell us they lack funding, and that newly approved
government resources will barely cover their debts from the
last campaign.


3. (SBU) National Unity (UN) leader Samuel Doria Medina has
stayed more involved with his party since the election but
has also adopted a low profile. The UN caucus leader in the
lower house complained to poloff that the opposition cannot
directly challenge MAS programs like hydrocarbons
nationalization because they are so popular and therefore
must weakly criticize how they are implemented rather than
their content. UN contacts say Doria Medina is more focused
on building his party for the future than on competing with
Morales right now.

Divided They Fall
--------------

4. (SBU) Opposition parties approach the Assembly elections
even more fractured than when they faced the general election
last year. Of the 70 total congressional districts,
Podemos, the UN, and the MNR in December lost 15 districts
where they, together, would have beaten the MAS, including
five districts in Santa Cruz. For the upcoming election, the
MIR and ADN broke their alliance with Podemos and will
compete in various departments. In addition, several small
new citizen groups ("agrupaciones") are registered to compete
across the country. Opposition contacts have acknowledged
the risk of dividing the non-MAS vote, and say they have
tried and failed to cooperate because no party is willing to
give up their chance for a bloc of delegates. As a result,
the parties could lose several districts they won in
December; the five seats they won in the MAS-leaning
departments of La Paz, Potosi, Oruro, Cochabamba, and
Chuquisaca are in particular jeopardy.

Favored by the Electoral Rules
--------------

5. (SBU) The enabling legislation passed in March to govern
the Constitutional Assembly election should offset some of
the opposition,s weakness. The law gives one delegate to
the second-place party in each of the 70 districts, with two

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for the winner. In separate department-wide voting, the
second through fourth place parties receive one delegate
each, again with two for the winner. In December, Podemos,
UN, and the MNR together won 25 districts and finished second
in 54; the parties are well positioned to finish second in
many of these districts even if they lose a handful of those
they had won in December, according to electoral data and
early polling. Likewise, the opposition is positioned to win
four department-wide votes--Santa Cruz, Tarija, Pando, and
Beni--and to capture at least third and fourth place in the
other five.

Still Strong in Eastern Bolivia
--------------

6. (SBU) Opposition parties continue to dominate the eastern
"media luna" departments of Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni, and
Pando, despite their relative weakness nationwide. In the
absence of national direction, regional leaders--particularly
in Santa Cruz--have stepped forward to challenge the Morales
government on various policy issues in a continued eastward
gravitation of the political opposition. Oscar Ortiz,
Podemos Senator from Santa Cruz, criticized Quiroga and told
poloffs that he and other regional figures would lead
Podemos, national Assembly campaign. He speculated that the
MAS would do less well in Santa Cruz this round than it did
in December.


7. (SBU) Most observers believe the opposition can win a
strong delegate block in eastern Bolivia. Podemos, MNR, and
UN won 20 of 26 "media luna" districts in December, and the
winning party in all but two of these districts beat the MAS
by an average margin of 30 percent, even with the non-MAS
vote divided three ways. This data suggests the MAS has a
steep climb to win more than a couple additional eastern
districts, and many analysts believe the party will fail to
make further inroads there.


8. (SBU) Ironically, divisions within the opposition could
even help it pick up additional delegates in the "media luna"
by allowing competing parties to take both first and second
place in several districts. Podemos, the MNR, and UN won
first and second in 15 of 26 eastern districts in December
and hope to repeat the feat in July. Senator Ortiz and MNR
leader Michiaki Nagatani separately told poloffs that, unlike
in the rest of the country, the opposition is coordinating in
Santa Cruz to support the best candidate in each district
while enabling a second place victory as well.


9. (SBU) In the smaller departments of Pando and Beni, the
MAS performed very poorly in December, finishing third or
fourth in all districts. Some analysts believe the
opposition could win all the delegates in these regions in
July. One MAS deputy from Pando told poloff that her party
chose weak candidates in the department after neglecting to
coordinate with local social groups, and faced an uphill
battle. She also partly blamed the opposition,s continued
regional dominance on a near-feudal electoral system where
large landowners controlled their employees, votes.


10. (C) COMMENT: Although the opposition enters the new
campaign season far weaker nationally than last December, the
electoral rules as well as the parties, continued strength
in eastern Bolivia suggest that they could win at least the
one-third of the seats needed to help curb MAS control of the
Assembly. Based on a district-by-district analysis of
December,s election results, cross-checked with the limited
available current polling data and the views of local
analysts, the parties could win as many as 100 delegates, or
about 40% of the Assembly, barring unforeseen political
developments. The parties, next challenge would be to
organize delegates to offset MAS power within the Assembly, a
difficult prospect for groups prone to infighting. END
COMMENT.
ROBINSON