OPPOSITION PROSPECTS ARE WEAK FOR THE CONSTITUENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 001317 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2016 TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL SOCI SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PROSPECTS ARE WEAK FOR THE CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS Classified By: Charge D'Affaires David Robinson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The opposition to President Evo Morales, Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party enters the campaign for the Constituent Assembly elections on July 2 even weaker than before the general elections in December 2006. The best-known opposition leaders--Podemos, Jorge Quiroga and UN,s Samuel Doria Medina--have been largely absent from the political scene, and their parties have no clear agenda other than opposition to Morales. The parties have fractured into more groupings than competed in December, which could further splinter the non-MAS vote and weaken their electoral chances. Nevertheless, the rules of the electoral game and the opposition,s strong support in eastern Bolivia boost its hopes somewhat. In short, the opposition has little hope of winning a majority of the 255 delegates, but appears sufficiently competitive to win at least one third--or 85 delegates--the amount needed to block constitutional amendments and curb unfettered MAS control of the Assembly. END SUMMARY. Lacking Strong National Leadership -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The opposition to President Morales is weak and divided as campaign season begins for the July 2 Constituent Assembly elections. The most serious deficiency is in national leadership. After the December general elections, Morales, main challenger, Jorge Quiroga, virtually disappeared from the political scene. One analyst compared Quiroga to a ghost, appearing to make brief statements and then disappearing again. Most observers believe his post-election performance makes him all but irrelevant, and leaves his Podemos party struggling to find a coherent message or program to appeal to voters. Podemos contacts also tell us they lack funding, and that newly approved government resources will barely cover their debts from the last campaign. ¶3. (SBU) National Unity (UN) leader Samuel Doria Medina has stayed more involved with his party since the election but has also adopted a low profile. The UN caucus leader in the lower house complained to poloff that the opposition cannot directly challenge MAS programs like hydrocarbons nationalization because they are so popular and therefore must weakly criticize how they are implemented rather than their content. UN contacts say Doria Medina is more focused on building his party for the future than on competing with Morales right now. Divided They Fall -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Opposition parties approach the Assembly elections even more fractured than when they faced the general election last year. Of the 70 total congressional districts, Podemos, the UN, and the MNR in December lost 15 districts where they, together, would have beaten the MAS, including five districts in Santa Cruz. For the upcoming election, the MIR and ADN broke their alliance with Podemos and will compete in various departments. In addition, several small new citizen groups ("agrupaciones") are registered to compete across the country. Opposition contacts have acknowledged the risk of dividing the non-MAS vote, and say they have tried and failed to cooperate because no party is willing to give up their chance for a bloc of delegates. As a result, the parties could lose several districts they won in December; the five seats they won in the MAS-leaning departments of La Paz, Potosi, Oruro, Cochabamba, and Chuquisaca are in particular jeopardy. Favored by the Electoral Rules -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The enabling legislation passed in March to govern the Constitutional Assembly election should offset some of the opposition,s weakness. The law gives one delegate to the second-place party in each of the 70 districts, with two LA PAZ 00001317 002 OF 002 for the winner. In separate department-wide voting, the second through fourth place parties receive one delegate each, again with two for the winner. In December, Podemos, UN, and the MNR together won 25 districts and finished second in 54; the parties are well positioned to finish second in many of these districts even if they lose a handful of those they had won in December, according to electoral data and early polling. Likewise, the opposition is positioned to win four department-wide votes--Santa Cruz, Tarija, Pando, and Beni--and to capture at least third and fourth place in the other five. Still Strong in Eastern Bolivia -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Opposition parties continue to dominate the eastern "media luna" departments of Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni, and Pando, despite their relative weakness nationwide. In the absence of national direction, regional leaders--particularly in Santa Cruz--have stepped forward to challenge the Morales government on various policy issues in a continued eastward gravitation of the political opposition. Oscar Ortiz, Podemos Senator from Santa Cruz, criticized Quiroga and told poloffs that he and other regional figures would lead Podemos, national Assembly campaign. He speculated that the MAS would do less well in Santa Cruz this round than it did in December. ¶7. (SBU) Most observers believe the opposition can win a strong delegate block in eastern Bolivia. Podemos, MNR, and UN won 20 of 26 "media luna" districts in December, and the winning party in all but two of these districts beat the MAS by an average margin of 30 percent, even with the non-MAS vote divided three ways. This data suggests the MAS has a steep climb to win more than a couple additional eastern districts, and many analysts believe the party will fail to make further inroads there. ¶8. (SBU) Ironically, divisions within the opposition could even help it pick up additional delegates in the "media luna" by allowing competing parties to take both first and second place in several districts. Podemos, the MNR, and UN won first and second in 15 of 26 eastern districts in December and hope to repeat the feat in July. Senator Ortiz and MNR leader Michiaki Nagatani separately told poloffs that, unlike in the rest of the country, the opposition is coordinating in Santa Cruz to support the best candidate in each district while enabling a second place victory as well. ¶9. (SBU) In the smaller departments of Pando and Beni, the MAS performed very poorly in December, finishing third or fourth in all districts. Some analysts believe the opposition could win all the delegates in these regions in July. One MAS deputy from Pando told poloff that her party chose weak candidates in the department after neglecting to coordinate with local social groups, and faced an uphill battle. She also partly blamed the opposition,s continued regional dominance on a near-feudal electoral system where large landowners controlled their employees, votes. ¶10. (C) COMMENT: Although the opposition enters the new campaign season far weaker nationally than last December, the electoral rules as well as the parties, continued strength in eastern Bolivia suggest that they could win at least the one-third of the seats needed to help curb MAS control of the Assembly. Based on a district-by-district analysis of December,s election results, cross-checked with the limited available current polling data and the views of local analysts, the parties could win as many as 100 delegates, or about 40% of the Assembly, barring unforeseen political developments. The parties, next challenge would be to organize delegates to offset MAS power within the Assembly, a difficult prospect for groups prone to infighting. END COMMENT. ROBINSON