PRESIDENT MORALES FOCUSED ON POPULISM AT 100 DAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 001245

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2016
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL SOCI ETRD BL
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT MORALES FOCUSED ON POPULISM AT 100 DAYS


Classified By: Amb. David N. Greenlee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In his first 100 days in office, Evo Morales
has focused almost exclusively on political goals with
short-term domestic appeal and negative long-term
consequences. At home, his efforts to consolidate power in
the executive appeal to Bolivian demands for stability and
jobs after years of turmoil, but entail serious potential
costs for democracy and economic growth. Abroad, his
relations with foreign governments increasingly appear
limited to issues that score quick political points, but
endanger Bolivia,s long-standing ties. This shortsighted
pattern of populism suggests Morales is unlikely to be
enticed by the dangling of US carrots that offer longer-term
gains, such as new aid or expanded trade relations. END
SUMMARY.

Populism at Home
--------------

2. (SBU) President Morales has spent his first 100 days
focused on building popular support while ignoring the
eventual consequences of his actions. Morales, efforts to
consolidate power in his office, for example, appeal to a
broad Bolivian demand for stability after years of turmoil,
regardless of the impact on democracy. According to various
contacts, many people voted for Morales not because they
supported his ideology but because they thought his election
would bring an end to the cycle of protests, roadblocks, and
failed presidents. Many Bolivians may be inclined to
overlook Morales, undemocratic behavior to the extent that
he can arrest this cycle of instability, as polling shows
broad dissatisfaction among Bolivians with the way their
democracy works.


3. (SBU) Morales, risky economic plans have the same
short-term domestic popular appeal. Morales has cut all
government salaries as a symbol of austerity in a country
plagued with corruption, while disregarding the impact of
this act on the productiveness and morale of the bureaucracy,
and the increased temptation of corruption for poorly paid
employees. His recent nationalization of hydrocarbons has
created a broad euphoria that local analysts believe will
boost his support before the July Constituent Assembly
elections, but entails potentially dire economic costs.
Other economic proposals, such as a minimum wage hike and
protection for workers from firing, fit the same mold.

Populism Abroad
--------------

4. (SBU) Morales has likewise followed a politically
opportunistic foreign policy designed to appeal to Bolivian
frustration with centuries of alleged foreign exploitation by
highlighting his independence from "imperial powers."
Morales, pre-election world tour suggested he might
moderate, but even this now looks to observers like a ploy to
portray Morales domestically as an important world leader.
During the trip, Morales promised Brazil, Spain, and France
that he would protect their Bolivian hydrocarbon investments,
a promise he appears to have broken dramatically with his
nationalization decree. Morales has also attacked the
Presidents of Peru and Colombia, his trading partners, for
their decision to pursue Free Trade Agreements with the
United States. Vice President Garcia Linera has publicly
slighted Peru's President Toledo--who Morales says betrayed
Peru's indigenous with the FTA--by referring to Morales as
the first indigenous President of Latin America, a title
claimed by Toledo. Morales has approached the US with the
same pattern of rhetorical attack for domestic gain.


5. (SBU) By contrast, Morales, flourishing relations with
Cuba and Venezuela offer his supporters the promise of
"revolutionary" change, of dismantling the widely despised
"neoliberal" model, and perhaps ironically, of reinforcing
Bolivia's "independence." Morales' association with these
leaders symbolizes for many Bolivians the rejection of
centuries of a political and economic model they believe was
imposed from abroad and has kept them poor. While

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comparatively privileged Bolivian doctors may criticize their
Cuban competition, large banners praising the Cuban doctors
hang across El Alto, and people line up for treatment. For
the average poor Bolivian, say local observers, Cuban and
Venezuelan tutelage of Morales does not reflect a new
dependency--or the ambitions of President Chavez for regional
dominance--but the elimination of old dependencies and the
hope of a better life.


6. (C) COMMENT: Morales, populist approach to governing may
buy him short-term support as he consolidates his government
and seeks to extend his power. In the longer term, however,
it creates the real prospect that he will leave Bolivia with
weakened institutions, a depressed economy, and few foreign
allies apart from Venezuela and Cuba. Morales, disregard
for these factors suggests he will be unwilling to soften his
populist attacks on the United States in return for promises
of economic aid that offer only diffuse, long-term benefits.
END COMMENT.
GREENLEE