AGIP AND RECENT NIGER DELTA ATTACKS DEMONSTRATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAGOS 000099 SIPDIS STATE PASS DOE FOR DAS JBRODMAN AND CGAY TREASURY FOR ASEVERENS AND SRENENDER COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION FOR MARAD STATE PASS USAID FOR GWEYNAND AND SLAWAETZ E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2016 TAGS: EPET PGOV ASEC PTER KHLS PINR ETRD CASC NI SUBJECT: AGIP AND RECENT NIGER DELTA ATTACKS DEMONSTRATE INCREASED VIOLENCE, SOPHISTICATION REF: A. LAGOS 98 ¶B. LAGOS 91 Classified By: Acting Consul General W. Howe for Reasons 1.4 (D & E) ¶1. (SBU) A Shell contact provided additional details on the AGIP attack today during the daily hostage crisis response group meeting (reftel B). He indicated the attackers approached the AGIP compound on the creek side at about 1400 hours in two speedboats. The boats docked at the jetty, where between 22-30 attackers disembarked. They encountered four mobile police ("mopol"),including the local Deputy Superintendent; they shot and killed all four. On their path to the compound's bank, they shot and killed four additional police. They entered the bank, where they remained for at least half an hour, killing one more policeman and two local AGIP employees as they exited. According to Shell, the attackers stole 30 million naira (about 231,000 USD),and were reportedly dressed in military fatigues. ¶2. (C) The crisis response group hosted by Shell today discussed the implications of the attack on AGIP. Shell contacts told us they believe the AGIP attack has significantly increased public perception of instability and lawlessness in the Delta, raising fears of a general "free for all." They related conversations with officers working under Joint Task Force Operation Restore Hope Commander General Zamani, in which they told Shell any additional attacks would increase pressure for the military to take action to control generalized lawlessness in the Delta. These contacts believe the hostages are in a fairly narrow arc between Warri, Jones Creek, Ogobo, and Nkerekoko. They believe if they avoid this area, they would have the rest of Bayelsa and Delta States to "give a lesson" to the militants. Crisis group participants are concerned with possible unforeseen consequences for the hostages. However, there appear to be no specific plans for military action at this point. The British reported their Defense Attache said no military units were on standby, and that the Chief of Defense Staff told him he would not plan any action without express authorization from President Obasanjo. Comment -------------- ¶3. (C) All hostage crisis group participants agree there is currently no evidence pointing towards a formal connection between perpetrators of the kidnapping of the four Shell expatriate contractors and perpetrators of yesterday's assault on AGIP. However, similarities among recent attacks in the Delta are evident, including the sheer scale of attack - specifically the ability to deploy thirty or more men - highly violent assaults carried out by water, and a willingness to mount a direct assault against security forces. The attacks also reflect increasingly sophisticated planning far ahead of yesteryear's Delta youth and community facility occupations. June, September, and October 2005 bank robberies in the Delta and Lagos were all carried out by boat, and all highly violent. Shell reports that during the January 11 assault on the Sea Eagle and Liberty Service, attackers took out a line-of-sight communication facility supporting EA field ships before carrying out a nearly two-hour attack on the vessels. After seizing their hostages, they circled the vessels slowly, calmly and deliberately displaying the prisoners. During the 15 January attack on the Shell Beneside flowstation, attackers took out multiple mounted machine guns before assaulting the flow station, and killed about half of the Joint Task Force personnel present. During yesterday's AGIP attack, mopol were killed immediately, without the warning and other random shots typical of a Delta-region bank heist. The military discipline and capability of these militias appears to be growing, and continues to shock even veteran Delta watchers. End comment. HOWE