SOUTHERN NIGERIA POLITICAL TIDBITS THROUGH JUNE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000913 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W STATE FOR INR/AA E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV NI SUBJECT: SOUTHERN NIGERIA POLITICAL TIDBITS THROUGH JUNE 2006 Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D) ¶1. (U) Following is a roundup of political items from the Lagos Consular district, Southern Nigeria, through June 2006. -------------- -- National - Indictment to Block Atiku Candidacy? -------------- -- ¶2. (C) Prominent attorney Femi Falana, a close friend of Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) head Nuhu Ribadu, said President Obasanjo plans to use the EFCC as a vehicle for the indictment of Vice President Atiku in order to block Atiku's increasingly favorable Presidential aspirations. Under Nigerian law, a pending indictment would exclude that person from running for political office, according to Falana. -------------- -------------- National - Former ANPP National Chairman Quits the Party -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Chief Don Etiebet, former National Chairman of the All Nigeria Peoples' Party (ANPP),left the party amid speculation the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) offered him the gubernatorial nomination for Akwa Ibom State in 2007. Etiebet, a former Chieftain for the PDP, joined the ANPP in 2002 and eventually became its National Chairman. Although he gave no reason for his resignation, there are indications it resulted from an internal power play that divided the ANPP. His sister-in-law told PolCouns that "the family has been trying to get him out of politics for months." Efforts to reconcile the two ANPP factions have been unsuccessful. Etiebet has been excoriated by critics within the ANPP ever since the 2003 elections. Many of his critics believe he never truly left the PDP and was Obasanjo's trojan horse, sent to destroy the ANPP from within. An Etiebet return to the PDP fold would be viewed as evidence confirming these denunciations. -------------- -------------- South-West - High Court denies AD faction recognition -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) An Abuja High Court dismissed a petition filed by an Alliance for Democracy (AD) faction led by Senator Mojisoluwa Akinfenwa seeking a ruling on which of two AD factions is legitimate. On June 15, the court ruled the Akinfenwa faction did not meet the requirements for recognition as the legitimate AD party. However, the court also fell short of recognizing the Bisi Akande-led faction, leaving the issue for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to decide. After INEC then failed to endorse the Akande faction, Chief Bisi Akande accused INEC of favoring the Akinfenwa group and called the Akinfenwa faction a "branch of the ruling Peoples' Democratic Party." Akande had previously told PolSpec the PDP was bankrolling the Akinfenwa group in order to destabilize the AD. Akande vowed to go to court if INEC does not recognize his group. -------------- --- South-West - Oyo Lawmakers' seat declared vacant -------------- --- ¶5. (U) Another political crisis is looming in Oyo State following the State House of Assembly's expulsion of thirteen legislators absent from their seats since the January impeachment of Governor Rashidi Ladoja. The thirteen were allied to Ladoja. The House passed a resolution directing Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala to advise the INEC to conduct an election to fill the vacant seats. However, a spokesperson for the thirteen expelled legislators declared the resolution illegal, as there is a court order directing both parties to maintain the status quo. The thirteen legislators have not appeared in the House since their failed bid to block Ladoja's impeachment. -------------- South-East - Chris Uba shares Zonal and National Election Insights -------------- ¶6. (C) South-East political figure and Obasanjo insider Chris Uba told the Consul General his brother Andy Uba might stay in his current role if the President decides he wants the assurance of Andy's loyal eyes to watch over Obasanjo's successor should Obasanjo succeed in getting his candidate the Presidency; otherwise, Andy has his eyes set on being the LAGOS 00000913 002 OF 002 next governor of Anambra State. Chris Uba claimed the President's current scheme is to select a northern governor for president, a governor from the South-East as vice president, and to placate the South-South with an increased oil revenue derivation. Chris Uba said he is soon traveling to the U.S., and one stop is to visit a manufacturer of electronic voting machines. (Comment: The electoral bill and INEC backed away from the electronic voting option for 2007; Uba's visit to a voting machine manufacturer may be a signal that at least some figures within the president's informal kitchen cabinet have not discarded electronic voting for next year's elections. End comment.) -------------- -------------- South-South - Entertainers Share Plot to Foment Unrest -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Two popular musicians from Bayelsa State told the Consul General their uncle, an influential Ijaw spiritual leader in Bayelsa, belongs to a group blood-sworn to take action in the Niger Delta and foment further militant activity. The group reportedly includes Niger Delta Development Commission Executive Director for Finance and Administration Timi Alaibe. The musicians said that Alaibe, who covets the Bayelsa gubernatorial seat, wants to cause disturbances in the state to create the impression that current Bayelsa Governor Goodluck Jonathan can't control his state. Also, both Alaibe and the Uncle purportedly have proprietary interests in some of the local security companies hired by the oil firms. Additional militant activity will lead to more uneasiness among the oil companies, who will then pay a higher price to these firms. The musicians said their uncle now wanted to disassociate himself from the group because he supports Governor Jonathan. Their uncle claimed at one point Alaibe was trying to hire an assassin to kill Governor Jonathan, but their uncle forestalled the plot. Now their uncle is afraid to leave out of fear of becoming the group's next target. ¶8. (U) This cable was cleared by Embassy Abuja. BROWNE