ATIKU CAMP COLLECTING SIGNATURES TO IMPEACH

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAGOS 000892 SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (PARA 6 TEXT) SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W STATE FOR INR/AA E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV NI SUBJECT: ATIKU CAMP COLLECTING SIGNATURES TO IMPEACH OBASANJO REF: LAGOS 807 Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons (B/D). ¶1. (C) Summary. On June 19, Special Assistant to Kwara State Governor Saraki, Babatunde Morakinyo, told Econoff the Atiku camp was secretly collecting signatures from House of Assembly members to begin impeachment proceedings against President Obasanjo. Morakinyo said Atiku was also collecting evidence to charge Obasanjo with stealing money from the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) excess crude oil account to fund his third term campaign and the 2007 presidential elections. End summary. ¶2. (C) Morakinyo, who also is related to Vice President Atiku, asserted to Econoff June 19 that Vice President Atiku had the best chance to win the 2007 elections. Morakinyo claimed Atiku had the support of the northern leaders and the majority of People's Democratic Party (PDP) governors. In order to advance Atiku's campaign and weaken Obasanjo, Atiku's camp was secretly collecting signatures from House of Assembly members to begin impeachment proceedings against Obasanjo. They had succeeded in gaining support from a substantial number of members, he said. ¶3. (C) According to Morakinyo, the emergence of the new People's Democratic Party (PDP) faction led by Solomon Lar was a strategic move orchestrated by Atiku and designed to weaken Obasanjo and allow Atiku to change parties and still retain his position as vice president. Under the Nigerian Constitution, if there is serious internal divisions within that official's original party, Morakinyo maintained an elected officer is allowed to change parties yet retain his current position. ¶4. (C) Morakinyo attended the National Executive Council meeting of the PDP in Abuja on June 15, and stated the conveners were trying to change the rules of the game by allowing for "open" zoning rather than zoning the Presidency to the North. This task would allow for a possible Southern candidate to succeed Obasanjo. Morakinyo said if the PDP changes the zoning procedures in favor of the South-South, the 12 PDP northern state governors would leave the PDP. ¶5. (C) Atiku would choose an ethnic Igbo as his runningmate and place Lagos State Governor Bola Tinubu as Senate President if he won the elections, Morakinyo predicted. He emphasized that "Obasanjo is the most unpopular president in Nigeria's history" and that most governors despise him. Despite his unpopularity, Obasanjo continued to harbor ambitions to remain in office post-2007. Morakinyo did not rule out the possibility of Obasanjo calling a state of emergency or otherwise canceling elections. ¶6. (C) Comment. In the aftermath of Obasanjo's third term defeat, Atiku has a new lease on his political life. Atiku's camp increasingly believes Obasanjo has lost significant power. They think now is the time to exploit Obasanjo's unpopularity and power shortage to the hilt. Consequently, they will pressure him in the National Assembly via impeachment proceedings while also attempting to scuttle the PDP by sponsoring internecine squabbles. Meanwhile, Atiku is building up the Advanced Congress of Democrats (ACD) Party, his likely political home once he departs the PDP. However, if we know this is Atiku's plan, Obasanjo must also surely know it and must be devising plans to counter it. Already Cross River State Governor Donald Duke has told us Obasanjo planned to indict Atiku on criminal charges. Under Nigerian law, a pending indictment could render a person ineligible to contest elections. Obasanjo could choose this or any number of other avenues. ¶7. (C) Comment continued. The players are all beginning to crowd onto center stage. The story that is the Nigerian elections is at the precipice of its most dramatic moments. End comment. BROWNE