ASSEMBLY MEMBER RECOUNTS THIRD TERM DEFEAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000866

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: ASSEMBLY MEMBER RECOUNTS THIRD TERM DEFEAT


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Representative Temi Harriman (PDP - Delta State) of
the National Assembly told the Consul General bribes and
strong-arm tactics whittled at but did not break the
opposition that defeated the President's third term push.
Harriman suspects there will be additional attempts to extend
Obasanjo's term and conceded the opposition coalition
remained vulnerable to financial seduction. Harriman claimed
the President's domineering style of governance and his
arrogance led to the defeat. Predicting a major exodus from
the PDP, she stated she would leave the party to seek a
Senatorial seat under the Advanced Congress of Democrats
(ACD) banner in 2007. Moving closer to home, Ms. Harriman
said there was sympathy even among her Itsekiri kith for
recent Ijaw militant action in the Delta. End summary.

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CREATIVE MANEUVERS TO PUSH THIRD TERM
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2. (C) Representative Temi Harriman, National Assembly
member from Warri South, Delta State, recounted the events
leading to the demise of the third term amendment. Harriman
said large sums of money were offered to both Senators and
Representatives in exchange for votes for the amendment. At
first, she said she was offered 50 million naira (390,000
USD) by the President's minions in the House. When she
declined and as the Obasanjo team grew desperate for votes,
Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Group Managing
Director Kupolokun called offering her partial ownership of
an oil block. When she declined, Harriman was finally
threatened, but again refused to budge.


3. (C) Ms. Harriman said rumors that Vice President Atiku
and former military head-of-state Babangida offered equally
large payoffs to buy votes against the President were not
true. However, she stated that significant lesser amounts
were passed to many anti-third term legislators to fortify
them in the face of the onslaught of enticements and
invectives coming from the President's corps.


4. (C) While fully enjoying the defeat of the amendment,
Harriman conceded the coalition against Obasanjo was fragile.
She estimated 143 opposition representatives in the National
House of Assembly, but was not sure of the number because a
formal vote count was not taken. (Note: The third term
amendment failed to garner enough voice votes to continue
debate. The amendment was never formally voted on. End
note.) There were even more in opposition but Harriman said
the coalition lost ten members the week before the vote when
bribes were delivered to some of the lawmakers. She claimed
that of the 143 who stood firm in the House, 109 were ANPP
representatives, mostly from the North. Given the animus
against Obasanjo in Northern Nigeria, these lawmakers could
not be enticed to vote for the third term. To a certain
extent, the choice was between Obasanjo's money or their
status in their local community, even their physical
well-being. Most of them chose to protect their status and
well-being, she postulated. Shortly after the amendment
failed, Tony Anenih, a longtime Obasanjo loyalist known for
his coarse methods of persuasion, invited many leaders of the
anti-third term group in the House to dinner. Harriman
declined the invitation, seeing it as an attempt to break
their ranks. She was upset that many of the other opposition
members cozied up to the President's men so soon after the
vote. Although some opposition members feel Obasanjo's
ambitions are blunted for good, concluded Harriman, others
are certain there will be further attempts at term extension
and she saw Anenih's prandial invitation as part of such a
scheme. Because of these, Harriman stated some of the
anti-extensionists have discussed giving 2-3 million naira
each to members of the coalition who seem to be flagging and
who might be susceptible to inducements from the Obasanjo
camp. She suggested the funds would come from the same
source that paid some of the anti-third termers before the
vote - namely Vice President Atiku and former head-of-state
Babangida.

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"ENTITLED" PRESIDENT MISLED, PDP NOW IN DISARRAY
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5. (C) Ms. Harriman said she supported the President in the
past, and fought against moves to impeach him in 2002.

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However, over time he seemed to have acquired a messiah
complex, she said. This arrogance, and underestimating the
sentiment against term extension, managed to do what the
various opposition factions could not do without identifying
a common enemy -- unite them. Obasanjo's people were afraid
to tell him the truth about the mounting opposition against
the third term. A few days preceding the bill's demise, 41
senators stood against the amendment. Obasanjo's men who
were lobbying the National Assembly became frantic and were
working hard to persuade members their way. Obasanjo's men
were openly talking about defeat while at the National
Assembly but apparently they never told Obasanjo. One
Obasanjo insider, according to Harriman, told her that none
of his aides dared to tell Obasanjo the whole truth. No one
dared to tell him that he did not have the numbers although
they knew the measure would not pass, said Harriman. Not to
incur his displeasure, they intentionally told him that they
could win. Because of his aides' mendacity, Obasanjo let
the measure go to the floor. He still thought he would win
while his aides remained silent, knowing the measure was
doomed, Harriman claimed.


6. (C) Representative Harriman predicted the People's
Democratic Party (PDP),stressed to the point of fracture by
the struggle over term extension, would ultimately divide.
She said no reconciliation was possible. Harriman said the
PDP National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting that closely
followed the defeat did not even acknowledge the attempt at
term extension, let alone explore ways to mend the Party's
internal differences. The PDP would split, predicted
Harriman, with most opposition members joining the new
Advanced Congress of Democrats (ACD). She planned to run for
a Senate seat from Delta State under the ACD banner.


7. (C) Harriman said Obasanjo's reverse and the resultant
damage to the PDP has buoyed Vice President Atiku's political
fortunes, as those disenchanted with the President's
maneuvers are turning to the Vice President. Obasanjo is
likely to back a southern candidate in an attempt to block
Atiku and Babangida, but the South-South and South-East are
disorganized and will be hard-pressed to block the
northerners' ambitions.

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GROWING IJAW SYMPATHY IN HARRIMAN'S HOME DISTRICT
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8. (C) Harriman, an Itsekiri from Warri SW, Delta State,
then turned to ongoing strife in the Niger Delta. The
Itsekiris are not actively militant like the Ijaws.
Itsekiris lack the economic capacity, the numbers, and do not
have the cultural inclination for sustained militant action,
Harriman claimed. However, she has noted a growing sympathy
for the Ijaw militant actions among her Itsekiri
constituents. More ominously, the Itsekiris are realizing
the Ijaw militants are profiting from their misbehavior.
Despite the recent establishment of President Obasanjo's
Niger Delta commission, Harriman questioned whether anything
would be done to repair the damage in the Delta soon enough
to stave another round of significant militant action.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Representative Harriman was relaxed and candid as she
recounted the third term battle. Her characterization of the
opposition coalition as a fragile amalgam of various
interests indicates that this coalition may not survive long
in the absence of a common threat. Her remarks about the
health of the PDP seem accurate. Conflict within the party
is tumescent and shows no sign of abating. As things stand
now, the third term attempt and Obasanjo's distaste for his
Vice President loom as coffin nails for the party. We also
share Harriman's concern for the Niger Delta and her
constituency, Warri, Delta State. Warri was the scene of
electoral violence in 2003. The city is more turbulent now
than it was three years ago. It will become even more so as
election season gets underway. End comment.
BROWNE