CONNECTED OILMAN'S TAKE ON THE PRESIDENTIAL OUTLOOK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000802 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W STATE FOR INR/AA E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV NI SUBJECT: CONNECTED OILMAN'S TAKE ON THE PRESIDENTIAL OUTLOOK Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Politically attuned oilman Leno Adesina predicted Vice President Atiku and his allies in the National Assembly will launch impeachment proceedings against Obasanjo in an effort to keep the shaken President on his defensive haunches. However, Adesina claims unity among Obasanjo opponents Atiku and former military heads-of-state Babangida and Buhari is dissipating in the aftermath of the third term defeat. End summary. -------------- -------------- ATIKU MOVING TO OFFENSIVE, BUT BABANGIDA IN BEST POSITION -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Politically-connected Lagos-based oilman Leno Adesina shared his current snapshot of Nigerian Presidential politics for the Consul General in a late May conversation. Adesina is related to President Obasanjo by marriage, but is an ally and former business partner of Vice President Atiku and has dealings with former military head-of-state Babangida. ¶3. (C) Adesina said Vice President Atiku will soon huddle with his votaries in the National Assembly and put into motion impeachment proceedings against President Obasanjo, a maneuver more intended to keep the President on his heels than to actually remove him from office. The defeat of the third term attempt showed Atiku that there was a significant number of anti-Obasanjo members in the lower house and perhaps a majority of senators were against Obasanjo. Thus, they will attempt to start the impeachment proceedings in the more receptive Senate. Adesina stated that Atiku's camp wanted to replicate 2002 when impeachment proceedings helped soften and weaken Obasanjo in the lead-up to the PDP national convention. The impeachment indictment will be a jeremiad of alleged Obasanjo transgressions but the most poignant charges will be alleged corruption in approving bribes to buy a third term and for dipping into government coffers to pay those bribes. Atiku's strategy is to hold the sword of impeachment over Obasanjo's head to keep the President so preoccupied with his political survival that he will sue for peace or at least be too busy to launch effective reprisals against political opponents, especially the Vice President. ¶4. (C) Despite the third term setback, Obasanjo remains a potent force who controls INEC, the Police and a portion of the PDP. Although no longer capable of fulfilling his dream of a third term, Obasanjo was still well-positioned to scuttle Atiku's desire for a first term. Obasanjo would do whatever it took to throttle Atiku's drive for the Presidency, contended Adesina. ¶5. (C) Because of this Obasanjo - Atiku animus, Adesina contended Babangida or Babangida ally former NSA Alihu Muhammed would emerge as the beneficiary of a cynical political compromise between the President and Vice President. However, Adesina noted the unity between Babangida, Atiku, and former military head-of-state Buhari, built upon a shared desire to foil Obasanjo's third term ambitions, had begun to fray now that the deed was accomplished. Before settling on Babangida or Gusau, Obasanjo will try to exploit these divisions, predicted Adesina. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Adesina joins the growing number of politically-connected Nigerian business and political leaders in the South seeing the third term rebuff as a nearly mortal wound to President Obasanjo. He also joins a small choir of Atiku supporters who see impeachment as the next move to keep Obasanjo from seizing the offensive. However, some anti-Obasanjo figures will fidget because, while opposing Obasanjo, they do not want to elevate Atiku, who would be the clearest beneficiary of any serious impeachment attempt against Obasanjo. Thus, Atiku now has to apply pressure with a delicate hand. If he presses too heavily, others will recoil and may actually take their eyes off Obasanjo and begin to see Atiku as a larger threat. Meanwhile, Obasanjo, though wounded and nonplused, will begin to probe the opposition lines in hopes of identifying a weak spot that he can breach and regain the political initiative. If Adesina is correct about the anti-Obasanjo unity among opposition LAGOS 00000802 002 OF 002 leaders wavering with the demise of the initial term extension push, can the crumbling pieces of the anti-third term coalition withstand the formidable carrots and sticks wielded by the President's stunned but still standing administration? End comment. BROWNE