GOVERNOR KALU BELIEVES OBASANJO THIRD TERM IS SUNK

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAGOS 000607 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W STATE FOR INR/AA E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS NI SUBJECT: GOVERNOR KALU BELIEVES OBASANJO THIRD TERM IS SUNK Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Abia State Governor Orji Kalu recently told the Consul General that opponents of the third term amendment have sufficient votes in the National Assembly to block Obasanjo's ambitions. Nevertheless, Kalu stated former military chiefs of state Ibrahim Babangida and Muhammadu Buhari and Vice President Atiku have agreed to support Kalu for President if the third term amendment is passed. Kalu predicted President Obasanjo, refusing to accept lame duck status, would likely and immediately intensify his attacks against political opponents should he lose the third term bid. On recent developments in the politics of southeastern Nigeria, Kalu claimed the President had engineered the removal of former Anambra State Governor Chris Ngige. End summary. -------------- -------------- 3RD TERM AMENDMENT STILL LACKING REQUIRED SUPPORT -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Abia State Governor Orji Kalu met the Consul General recently to discuss the 2007 electoral landscape, particularly it's most prominent feature -- the Presidential third term amendment. Although looking tired from what he called a marathon of late-night meetings, the Governor seemed relaxed and confident. Kalu claimed the amendment lacked sufficient support to pass the National Assembly. Forty-nine senators and over 150 representatives opposed the measure, he gauged. In both houses, the measure could not claim the required two-thirds supermajority, boasted Kalu. (Comment: The Senate has 109 members, meaning 73 affirmative votes are needed for passage. The House has 360 members, and 240 are needed for a two-thirds majority. End comment). ¶3. (C) Kalu asserted that Obasanjo's camp was getting desperate and using both intimidation and pecuniary enticement to lure votes the President's way. However, the anti-Obasanjo camp had not dwindled and may have gained a few Assembly members in recent days. He attributed this steadfastness to the anti-Obasanjo collaboration among former heads of state Babangida and Buhari, VP Atiku, Lagos Governor Tinubu, and Kalu. Babangida, Buhari, and Atiku had acted to keep many of the Northern assembly members from being drawn into the President's orbit. Likewise, Governor Tinubu influenced the Alliance for Democracy (AD) senators from the Yoruba southwest and Kalu influenced the independent-minded Igbo assembly members from the East to oppose Obasanjo. ¶4. (C) Conflicting interests of National Assembly members and current state governors represented a Gordian knot in fulfilling Obasanjo's third term aspirations. On one hand, many Assembly members were eyeing their states' gubernatorial posts in 2007. Thus, they did not mind a third Obasanjo term but opposed a similar extension for the governors. These senators are vital to the passage of the amendment in the National Assembly. However, the amendment must also pass in the state assemblies and this is where the governors reign supreme. If Obasanjo yielded to the senators, he would lose the support of the governors, and vice versa. But a choice had to be made. Consequently, the amendment as initially prepared reserved another term solely for the President. However, this maneuver aroused the ire of the governors who concluded that Obasanjo purposefully omitted them so that they would have to relinquish office and the constitutional immunity that accompanies it in 2007. To quell the fury, the governors were later added to the amendment, but this episode has heightened the mistrust the governors already harbored about Obasanjo, according to Kalu. The Abia governor called Obasanjo's calculations to initially side with the Assembly members a strategic blunder. In the end, Obasanjo had to pressure the Assembly to include the governors in the amendment. However, the President's clumsiness on this point scared the governors. Now many governors, although publicly supporting or remaining mute about the third term, are now active in furtive opposition to it. -------------- THIRD TERM PASSAGE CONTINGENCY PLANNING -------------- ¶5. (C) Kalu described a series of meetings with other opposition leaders in December 2005. As a result of these sessions, the other opposition leaders, including Atiku, Babangida and Muhammadu Buhari, agreed if the third term was ratified, they would not seek the presidency themselves but would back Kalu. By supporting Kalu, a southerner and the first contender to openly throw his hat in the ring, they avoided the dangerous north-south polarization that would be likely should a Northern candidate vie against Obasanjo. These three northerners saw Kalu as a compromise person whom each member of the trio knows and trusts. Conversely, no member of the trio would agree to step aside for one of the other two. Also, neither Atiku nor Babangida relished the prospect of running against Obasanjo head-to-head. Their prestige would suffer too greatly if they lost, but Kalu was young and brash enough to take the risk. Last, they consider Kalu a more viable "changing of the guard" than the other possibility, Lagos Governor Tinubu. While Tinubu has been nearly as truculent against Obasanjo's third term designs, Tinubu is hurt by the fact that he is Yoruba like Obasanjo. ¶6. (C) However, Kalu confessed there was no agreement among the opposition leaders on how to proceed if the third term amendment failed. Kalu voiced concern that, if the third term bid imploded, President Obasanjo would refuse to become a lame duck. Obasanjo would instead employ "scorched earth" tactics to bring down as many of his opponents as he could, while continuing to seek alternative methods to extend his time in power. ¶7. (C) Kalu noted the opposition leaders agree on the likelihood that they would resort to civil unrest should President Obasanjo take unconstitutional steps to prolong his tenure. Kalu said the group, augmented in recent meetings by Tinubu, has been in constant contact, and they might provide financial backing to counter unconstitutional maneuvers by the President. Likewise, they are preparing to counteract what Kalu described as the inevitable "cooking" of the election results, including inserting their supporters into the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and exerting their influence on the State Security Service (SSS) and the police. ¶8. (C) Should Obasanjo's extension be thwarted, a graceful exit needed to be found or Obasanjo could bring down Nigeria's still-fragile democracy edifice in a fit of sustained rage, predicted Kalu. He stated he would try to contact UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, South African President Mbeki and other African leaders to see if Obasanjo could be offered a face-saving sinecure. -------------- ANAMBRA SIDELIGHT -------------- ¶9. (C) Kalu also shared his views on gubernatorial machinations in Anambra State last year. Kalu explained that President Obasanjo was behind the eventual removal of former Governor Chris Ngige because of Ngige's feud with Chris Uba, a close Obasanjo ally. Chris and his brother Andy, who is Obasanjo's de facto right-hand man, decided to ask Obasanjo to support All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) Party's Peter Obi in his electoral tribunal challenge against Ngige. They saw Obi as the lesser and also the weaker of two evils. Kalu predicted that Obi would eventually migrate to the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP),openly revealing his allegiance with the President. While currying the President's favor, the move will backfire on Obi. Kalu predicted one of the Uba brothers would become Anambra governor in 2007. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) Kalu seemed weary, but confident that opponents of Obasanjo's third term aspirations have the votes to defeat the attempt. Perhaps this confidence explains why Kalu appeared unfazed by the continued freeze of his personal accounts by the Code of Conduct Bureau (CCB) and Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). While Governor Kalu dismisses the President's messianic belief that only he can steer the Nigerian ship of state, Kalu is guilty himself of a similar affliction -- Kalu likewise thinks he is predestined to rule Nigeria. Thus, Kalu's belief the other opposition leaders would back him for president might have come more from his own mind than from their mouths. Nevertheless, should the third term amendment fail, Kalu's stock will likely rise because of his early emergence as a presidential contender and his sustained, publicized opposition to a third term. End comment. BROWNE