BUSINESS INSIDER PROMOTES THIRD TERM AGENDA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000597

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: BUSINESS INSIDER PROMOTES THIRD TERM AGENDA


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Prominent Yoruba businessman and Obasanjo insider
Otunba Funso Lawal recently told the Consul General that the
business community, particularly leading companies in the
modernized sectors such as banking and telecommunications,
support President Obasanjo for a third Presidential term.
Should the third term bid get doused, Lawal claimed the
President was determined not to turn over to a northerner.
Obasanjo might reluctantly consider succession by Rivers
State Governor Peter Odili with a northerner like Katsina's
Governor Yar'Adua as Vice President. Although no logistical
preparation has begun for the 2007 election, Lawal claimed a
sizable contract for election support is coming his way. End
summary.

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BUSINESS SUPPORTS THE THIRD TERM AMENDMENT
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2. (C) Prominent Yoruba business figure Funso Lawal, a
member of Transcorp, the mega-corporation formed at
Obasanjo's behest, has close access to President Obasanjo.
Notwithstanding Obasanjo's studied public silence, Lawal
claims President Obasanjo was actively working to get the
third term amendment ratified. He stated the President was
adamant about this project. Lawal was confident Obasanjo
would gather the needed votes by emoluments or extortion if
necessary.


3. (C) Lawal portrayed the business community, particularly
the more modernized sectors, as having fared well under
Obasanjo. Thus, this very powerful and monied portion of the
economy generally supported a third presidential term. Many
businesspeople were privately encouraging the tenure
extension with both their moral and monetary support, he
confided. The business community worried if another member
of the old guard succeeded Obasanjo, the economic reforms and
the advantages gained as a result thereof might quickly
dissipate, continued Lawal. (Comment: A growing cry in some
business circles is not that Obasanjo is reforming the
economy, but that, under the guise of reform, he is merely
substituting one economic elite for an elite of his making.
End comment.)

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OBASANJO VEHEMENTLY AGAINST NORTHERN SUCCESSOR
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4. (C) While northern leaders are clamoring for the
presidency to return to their region, the President is
determined that this should not happen, Lawal stated.
Obasanjo does not believe the "feudalistic northerners,"
especially the older ones, have the cultural and
philosophical background to continue his modernization
efforts. While northern support was instrumental in his
reelection in 2003, the President does not feel beholden to
northern politicians. After all, continued Lawal, it was a
northerner, Sani Abacha, who imprisoned Obasanjo in the
1990s. Obasanjo was viscerally opposed to making way for
another northerner who might again hold the south hostage,
Lawal asserted.


5. (C) Should the third term amendment fail, Lawal described
"Plan B" as Obasanjo stepping aside for Rivers State Governor
Peter Odili, with the north being quieted by the nomination
of a northern vice presidential candidate like Katsina State
Governor Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, who has an unassailable
northern pedigree.

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NO DOUBT ABOUT OBASANJO INSIDE TRACK ON ELECTION MACHINERY
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6. (C) Lawal also claimed to have the inside track on a
large procurement contract for election and voting materials
for the 2007 election. He had a similar contract in 2003.
Lawal said he has been assured large orders for electoral
materials and machines will be coming his way in about a
month. (Comment: With Lawal being an unabashed Obasanjo
supporter, that he might also control a large share in INEC's
procurements smacks of a conflict of interest and undermines
the credibility of INEC. End comment.)

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LAGOS 00000597 002 OF 002


COMMENT
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7. (C) A long-time supporter of President Obasanjo, Lawal
was more ardent about the third term than in past
conversations. The edge in his voice made us wonder if the
third term was as attainable as he describes, or if his
statements represent a figurative "circling of the wagons"
around a position facing more legislative and popular
resistance than anticipated. However, if Lawal's portrait is
accurate, President Obasanjo is placing all his eggs in the
third term basket, with scant thought given to any
alternatives. End comment.
BROWNE