HEAD OF NORTHERN ELDERS SPEAKS ON 3RD TERM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000596

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: HEAD OF NORTHERN ELDERS SPEAKS ON 3RD TERM


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4(b)
and (d).


1. (C) Summary. Former presidential aspirant and father of
the Kwara State Governor, Sola Saraki, told the Consul
General (CG) President Obasanjo is determined to remain in
power by any means. Saraki emphasized that the 2007 election
will go to one of Nigeria's more established figures--the
next generation of politicians will have to wait for the next
election. He said the Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC) is ill-prepared to hold an election,
violence would ensue if proper elections are not held, and
the military could step in. He lamented the country's
failure to discuss social and economic issues other than the
constitutional amendment and Niger Delta development. End
summary.


2. (C) The dean of Kwara State politics and an important
Nigerian power-broker, Saraki told Consul General (CG) in
April that President Obasanjo is determined to remain in
power even if the proposed constitutional amendment does not
pass through the National Assembly. Saraki emphasized the
President would find "other" means to stay beyond 2007.
Obasanjo has illegally siphoned large sums of money from the
Nigerian bursary and he wants to stay in power to protect his
"checkered" past, Saraki claimed.


3. (C) When asked about potential opponents to Obasanjo,
Saraki reeled off the usual suspects: Vice President Atiku,
Ibrahim Babangida, and Muhammadu Buhari. Saraki, however,
discounted Atiku's chances because Atiku played too closely
for too long with Obasanjo. Despite Atiku's very acrimonious
public break with Obasanjo, many Northern leaders would not
forgive him for sacrificing overall Northern interests to
Atiku's prior tactics of backing Obasanjo in hopes he would
be selected as heir apparent. Moreover, the Economic and
Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) continued to tightly
monitor Atiku's financial activities, threatening his ability
to campaign effectively. As for Buhari, he has strong grass
roots support in the north, but has virtually no support in
the south, Saraki opined. That leaves Babangida as the
candidate with the greatest chance to defeat Obasanjo, Saraki
estimated.


4. (C) More fundamental than identifying potential
candidates, stressed Saraki, the Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC) must be prepared to hold an
election. Saraki said INEC was ill-prepared, poorly funded
and already behind schedule.


5. (C) Saraki said if proper elections were not held,
violence would occur and the military could intervene to
restore order. In order to prevent such a scenario, Saraki
stated there needed to be the "right" mixture of winners and
losers to allow for greater representation. He said if
opposition parties like the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and
the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) are not adequately
represented, violence would likely ensue in the areas where
these parties have a strong ethnic support base. However,
Saraki claimed Obasanjo would rather see the Army come back
to power if he couldn't extend his tenure.


6. (C) Saraki lamented the lack of debate on social and
economic issues. "This man has so divided the country" that
no one is talking about anything else except the
constitutional amendment, Saraki moaned. As far as the Niger
Delta, he said Nigeria could benefit from international
assistance in managing and auditing funds earmarked for
developmental projects at the national level. He declared he
was not opposed to a greater amount of oil revenue allocated
to the Niger Delta States, provided safeguards were placed on
spending to prevent pilferage. At the state level, the
amount has to be allocated for certain social and economic
projects aimed at improving living standards, employment, and
education. He emphasized that it is to everyone's advantage
to have the Delta peaceful and prosperous.


7. (C) Comment: Saraki is ardently anti-Obasanjo but
publicly has to hedge to protect his son, the current
governor of Kwara State. Nevertheless, Saraki is working
behind the scenes to mobilize Northerners and their elder
politicians to thwart Obasanjo. For an old war horse who
has harbored his own presidential ambitions, in the back of
Saraki's mind lies the belief that if Obasanjo is out of the
running, anything is possible, including Saraki's emergence
as a dark horse. While a remote possibility, it is one that
Saraki's ambition cannot help but entertain. In the end and
given his age, 2007 might be his last active stab in
electoral politics. Thus he will work to see Obasanjo leave,

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position himself as well as he can, and try to situate his
son for the future, should his national ambition again be
foiled. End Comment
BROWNE