TRADITIONAL RULER SHARES OPINIONS ON 3RD TERM,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000053

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: TRADITIONAL RULER SHARES OPINIONS ON 3RD TERM,
PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION

REF: 05 LAGOS 1865

Classified By: Acting Consul General William Howe for Reason 1.4 (D)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) In a recent meeting with the Consul General and PAO,
the Ooni of Ife, traditional ruler of the Yorubas and
influential power broker, said that President Obasanjo was
planning on leaving office after 2007 rather than undertake
the arduous task of amending the constitution. The Ooni
ruled out popularly-perceived front runners Ibrahim
Babangida, Peter Odili, and Orji Kalu, but indirectly
identified Buba Marwa as the current favorite. According to
the Ooni, Marwa's military experience and tenure as governor
in two states make him a desirable candidate, and with Peter
Odili of the oil-rich Rivers State as vice presidential
candidate, a Marwa ticket checks all the necessary boxes.
End summary.

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PRESIDENT READY TO LEAVE, BUT WHO WILL FOLLOW?
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2. (C) In a candid January 11 meeting with the Consul
General and PAO, the Ooni of Ife, traditional ruler of the
Yorubas and longtime friend and confidante of President
Obasanjo, painted a very different political picture from the
one he described in our last audience with him in November
(reftel). The Ooni downplayed the recent talk about a third
term for the President, saying instead the President is ready
to leave office. Despite pressure from business leaders for
him to stay on, the President respects the two-term
constitutional limit. (NOTE: Some (unnamed) business
leaders are, according to the Ooni, very supportive of
Obasanjo's reform agenda and thus receptive to the idea of a
third term. End note.)


3. (C) The key point, continued the Ooni, is finding a
suitable successor. The next President should be younger, of
the new generation of politicians, and have a proven track
record of good governance and discipline, which the Ooni
insisted meant someone with a military background. Nigerians
lack discipline, said the Ooni, and military experience
instills that quality. President Obasanjo's shoes will be
hard to fill, for "...he is a bloody worker!" stressed the
Ooni, citing the President's noted work ethic stemming from
his farming and military background. The Ooni also said that
a national meeting of traditional rulers will be held soon to
discuss the way forward.

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PRESIDENTIAL THUMBS DOWN TO BABANGIDA, DUKE, ODILI AND KALU
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4. (C) When the Consul General asked who the leading
successor candidate might be, the Ooni commented on a number
of the popularly-perceived contenders. Former military ruler
Ibrahim Babangida is a non-starter. While he is a close
friend of President Obasanjo, the President does not believe
he is a suitable candidate to succeed him and maintain the
reforms started during this administration.


5. (C) Governor Donald Duke of Cross River State has done a
good job, continued the Ooni, but he is not from a major oil
producing state. Rivers State Governor Peter Odili, who is
close to the President, is a possibility from an oil-rich
state, but "...the Igbos are not ready," said the Ooni.
"Give them one chance and they will take ten." The Ooni also
discounted Abia State governor Orji Kalu's suitability.
"That man..." chuckled the Ooni, shaking his head.

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MARWA / ODILI TICKET CHECKS ALL THE BOXES
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6. (C) The Ooni went on to describe the leading candidate.
This man has the desired military background along with
demonstrated ability to govern. The Ooni said this candidate
is a northerner who, during the Abacha years, visited
President Carter and later delivered a letter to Sani Abacha
interceding on then-General Obasanjo's behalf. (Comment:
The candidate the Ooni described, without identifying him by
name, is retired General Buba Marwa. End comment.)


7. (C) Following the Ooni's lead, PAO asked about the
prospects for retired General Buba Marwa. The Ooni cagily
continued that Marwa had a good record as governor of Borno
and Lagos States and had the desired military background. He
is also popular in the north and his election would fulfill
the purported deal made at Obasanjo's re-election in 2003 to
shift power back to a northerner in 2007, the Ooni continued.
This would quiet the clamor in the northeast, and because
Marwa is not perceived as beholden to the Sokoto / Kano
group, his candidacy has less risk of alienating the southern
elite. However, he is not from an oil-producing state, so
his Vice President would have to fill that gap, said the
Ooni. Governor Odili, with his experience governing an
oil-producing state, southern roots to offset Marwa's
northern background, and close relationship to President
Obasanjo, would be a strong vice presidential complement to
Marwa. (Comment: Interestingly, Odili is also Igbo, but
apparently suitable for a vice presidential role. End
comment.)


7. (C) The Ooni granted that Marwa's recent detention and
ongoing investigation by the EFCC appeared troublesome, but
said because the investigation was not directed by President
Obasanjo but was instead probably engineered by some of
Marwa's rivals, he expected Marwa to emerge relatively
unscathed and still a viable candidate.


8. (C) Consul General then asked how this proposed 2007
ticket would fly given the clamor from two recent summits of
southern leaders held in Lagos and Enugu calling for rotating
the Presidency among the six geo-political zones, beginning
with southeast or south south in 2007. The Ooni downplayed
the difficulty of obtaining support from southern leaders.
"Most of them are my subjects," said the Ooni, so they would
follow his direction. The Ooni also said he has a personal
stake in fulfilling the 2003 deal to return the Presidency to
the north, as he was directly involved in brokering the
arrangement.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) The Ooni has close ties to the President and other
traditional and political elites, and as we found in our
November audience with him, he knows the current political
landscape. The Ooni's statement that the President is
leaning against a third term tracks with the messages we have
received from other informed sources. Additionally, the
Marwa / Odili combination is indeed a strong one, for the
reasons the Ooni listed. The outcome of the upcoming meeting
of traditional rulers, who are very influential with their
own subjects as well as politically, will be telling.
However, just as the current landscape painted by the Ooni is
different from that he described just two months ago, the
picture of two months from now will most probably differ from
today's. Although the Ooni is very influential, most of the
southern leaders are in fact not his subjects, and gaining
their acceptance to his direction will be more difficult than
he describes. End comment.
HOWE