VICE PRESIDENT ATIKU ON THE THIRD TERM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000261

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF NI
SUBJECT: VICE PRESIDENT ATIKU ON THE THIRD TERM


Classified By: Consul General Brian Browne for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) During a February 11 conversation with the Consul
General, embattled Vice President Atiku expostulated that
President Obasanjo was fixated on running for a third term
with a new running mate. Atiku said Obasanjo had no
successor in mind for the presidency and would seek to clip
the wings of either friend or foe who sought that role.
Nevertheless, Atiku predicted Obasanjo's plan to amend the
constitution would fail in the National Assembly. Atiku
planned to run in 2007, whether as the Peoples Democratic
Party (PDP) candidate or against Obasanjo as the
standard-bearer of an opposition coalition. Claiming
numerous indignities to him being committed by the
Presidency, Atiku declared he would not be tricked into
resigning office. He also asserted that polls conducted by a
US-based firm showed him to be more popular than the
President. End Summary.

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President Set on Third Term
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2. (C) In a February 11 meeting with the Consul General,
Vice President Atiku contended that President Obasanjo was
bent on seeking a third term via a constitutional amendment.
Not only did this quest pit Obasanjo and a few opportunistic
supporters against most of Nigeria, it had ethnic, regional,
and religious ramifications that Atiku described as
"potentially catastrophic." He lamented that Obasanjo,
purportedly seeking another term because he was the only man
who could reform Nigeria, may become the man to take Nigeria
to the brink of rupture. Ambition was blinding Obasanjo from
seeing the vast and ironic gap between what he claims is his
objective and what has been the deleterious impact of his hot
pursuit of another stint in office.

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President Faces Obstacles to a Third Term in the House
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3. (C) Atiku opined that Obasanjo's biggest hurdle to a
third term was the National Assembly. Intimating that he was
mobilizing his supporters in the Assembly, Atiku predicted
Obasanjo would fall short of cobbling together the two-thirds
majority needed for a constitutional amendment. Due to
strident anti-Obasanjo sentiment in the North, Atiku claimed
most northern legislators opposed the third term, regardless
of the pecuniary inducements he accused Obasanjo of offering
to Assembly members. Legislators in the Alliance for
Democracy (AD) party and maverick PDP lawmakers would also
ally with the mostly All Nigeria Peoples' Party (ANPP)
northerners to block Obasanjo's quest, Atiku predicted.


4. (C) Atiku claimed that Obasanjo soon would begin to
press hard to get National Assembly approval because time was
running against him. According to PDP guidelines, potential
candidates had to publicly declare their intentions to seek
the party's nomination by late March - early April. Thus,
Obasanjo would need the constitutional amendment in hand by
this expiry date. Atiku contended that his supporters in the
Assembly were poised to foil Obasanjo's timetable. According
to Assembly rules, each lawmaker has the opportunity to
comment on every proposed constitutional amendment. Also,
there is no time limit placed on a member's comments. This
liberal debating rule would be used by his supporters to
filibuster the amendment, asserted the Vice President.


5. (C) Should Obasanjo emerge victoriously from the
National Assembly, then his chances of a third term brighten
significantly, Atiku conceded. Cowed and frightened by the
Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC),most
governors are passive and will not actively oppose the
President. Nevertheless, some governors are walking a
tightrope between an agressive Obasanjo machine and an irate
public. The Governor of Kaduna State was recently attacked
in his private home as a result of his perceived support for
Obasanjo. The Governor of Bauchi, a known Obasanjo acolyte,
has begun to absent himself from the national governors'
forum meetings because of pressure to his mostly
anti-Obasanjo constituents, Atiku maintained.


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VP Sees Himself as Popular
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6. (C) Despite his troubles with Obasanjo, Atiku was
sanguine about his chances if he made it to an election. He
said he had hired an American public relations firm whose
clients include John Kerry and Bill Clinton. This firm was
helping to sculpt his campaign. He said the firm has taken
two polls in Nigeria, one in June and the other in December
2005, to assess his popularity. The first poll found
Nigerians split almost evenly in their support for the major
Presidential candidates: Obasanjo, Babangida, Buhari, and
Atiku. However, the second poll showed Atiku had distanced
himself from the other three. He attributed this increased
popularity to the clear pro-democracy statements he has made
that signalled his public "break" with Obasanjo. Atiku
expressed confidence he would beat Obasanjo in a fair
election, and he claimed no apprehension of a head-on contest
against his boss.


7. (C) The Vice President mentioned that he was working
with the AD, All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA),Movement
for the Advancement of Democracy (MAD) and other parties and
organizations to establish a coalition should Obasanjo
continue his bid for a third term. He also stated that
Buhari, Babangida and he, despite their conflicting
presidential ambitions, had reached a gentleman's agreement
to work together toward three goals: 1) No Obasanjo
third-term, 2) Return of the presidency to the North, and 3)
Free and fair elections.

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Problems in the Delta Take a Backseat to Party Politics
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8. (C) When asked for his view on stabilizing the Delta
region, Atiku criticized Obasanjo for mishandling the region
but did not offer any new solutions. The Consul General
warned him that Nigerian office-holders should be advised
against letting the jockeying for 2007 be their sole focus.
They needed to keep an eye on governance and nowhere was that
attention more necessary than in the Delta. Unless more
attention was focused on the Delta, the energy dissipated by
politicking would be for naught. Whoever emerged as
victorious might find himself the leader of a nation
suffering a significant degree of self-inflicted paresis due
to inattention to the Delta. It behooved everyone to assist
in resolving this problem, lest the Nigeria that everyone is
scrambling tooth-and-nail to lead become less than it already
is, the CG advised.

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Comment
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9. (C) Atiku's preoccupation with his political future is
understandable, given his recent battles, pitched or
otherwise, with the President. On February 10, CNN's Inside
Africa aired a scathing portrait of the Vice President,
claiming his blatant corruption hampers the administration's
ability to crack down on others. Despite the optimism and
firmness the Vice President tried to show, his position and
support are softening. His is an uphill battle that is
getting steeper by the day. But at this stage, he probably
feels he has little choice but to fight for his political
life -- and the only way he can survive is to become
President. Meanwhile, the GON is doing very little to tackle
the problems of the tumultuous Delta. With party nominating
conventions set for July - August and the Obasanjo camp in
hot pursuit of a third-term amendment, the political game is
heating up and becoming all-encompassing, drawing attention
away from some of Nigeria's most urgent problems of
governance, like the Delta. End Comment.
BROWNE