POLITICAL INSIDER: MU'AZU & ODILI ATTEMPT YAR'ADUA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001424 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W STATE FOR INR/AA E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM NI SUBJECT: POLITICAL INSIDER: MU'AZU & ODILI ATTEMPT YAR'ADUA UPSET LAGOS 00001424 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Saleh Ahmadu, part owner of IRS Airlines and friend of Governor Alhaji Adamu Mu'azu of Bauchi State, told the Consul General during a December 13 conversation that Rivers Governor Odili and others are engaged in a late round attempt to discredit PDP Presidential frontrunner Katsina Governor Yar'Adua by alleging that Yar'Adua has a history of mental instability. This attempted character assassination of Yar'Adua is not aimed at putting Odili in the spotlight. Perhaps resigning himself to the reality of the strength of the opposition against him, Odili appears to have thrown his support to Governor Mu'azu of Bauchi State, according to Ahmadu. If successful, Odili would not only have made himself a kingmaker, he would have placed someone in the chair who, as part of the political debt owed, would likely dissuade the EFCC from its current vetting of the Odili politico-financial empire. End Summary. Adversaries Seek to Derail Yar'Adua -------------- ¶2. (C) Although Katsina Governor Yar'Adua entered the nomination campaign later than most, his status as the frontrunner still may have come too early, Saleh Ahmadu declared. Everyone loves a winner but a frontrunner who has yet to win can expect his adversaries to congregate against him as the day of decision approaches, mused Ahmadu. While Yar'Adua has been touted in the press during the past two weeks, his adversaries have been delving into his background in hopes of finding an Achilles heel, revealed Ahmadu, co-owner of IRS Airlines. ¶3. (C) It appears Yar'Adua's Achilles heel might be his head. Ahmadu contended that investigators hired by Yar'Adua's competition have discovered he spent time in a mental institution as a youth or young adult. In a traditional society like Nigeria's where even the suggestion of mental instability is bete noire, Yar'Adua's detractors hope that disseminating this information about Yar'Adua in the right quarters will turn Yar'Adua's currently attractive campaign into a mephitic one. ¶4. (C) Ahmadu identified Rivers Governor Odili as being one of the chief architects of the attack on Yar'Adua. In part, Odili is embittered that his efforts and hefty expenditures have come to naught save for attracting the unwanted attention of the EFCC. Meanwhile, Yar'Adua who barely has spent a dime because he has few dimes to spend, appeared to be waltzing to the finish line upon a red carpet laid out by none other than President Obasanjo himself. (Note: Ahmadu's account dovetails with information from another source. In a telephone conversation on December 13, Professor Ukande Damachi, an established Mission contact, told the Consul General that Odili was hurt at being snubbed by the President and was inclined to "fight back" by "rubbishing Yar'Adua." End Note.) Odili Courts PDP Presidential Hopeful Mu'azu -------------- ¶5. (C) Although his ego is bruised and his finances are somewhat depleted because of his prodigal campaigning, Odili seemed to have resigned himself with surprising quickness to the fact that his chances at the Presidency or Vice Presidency are slim and slipping. Evidently, Odili is cognizant of the array of personalities and forces against his candidacy. Also, aggressive EFCC inquiries into his state and private dealings, areas heretofore left untouched, seemed to have pealed the bells of a charring reality for Odili, Ahmadu observed. Instead of being in a contest to elevate himself to the presidency, Odili discovered that his ambitions might have attracted an ambush, putting him in a fight for his very political and economic existence, particularly with the EFCC breathing down his back. To protect his future, he seemed willing to jettison his presidential aspirations, gauged Ahmadu. However, he would begin working privately to upstage the putative nominee and the growing coterie of supporters around him, such as Delta State Governor Ibori. (The animosity between the two south-south governors is as strong as it is mutual.) ¶6. (C) To protect his future, Odili has decided to become a LAGOS 00001424 002.2 OF 002 kingmaker, Ahmadu asserted. First he reached out to Presidential hopeful Kaduna Governor Makarfi but found out that Makarfi had been tarred by the very same brush that ruined Odili's chance. In the past week Odili has been courting Bauchi Governor Adamu Mu'azu. According to Ahmadu, Mu'azu has flown to Port Harcourt four or five times recently to confer with Governor Odili. ¶7. (C) At the beginning of the year, Mu'azu's star was ascendant. However, his waffling on the third term amendment pleased no one, least of all President Obasanjo. Because Obasanjo had withdrawn his favor, Mu'azu was not seen as an early favorite. In fact, he formally entered the race after methodical Yar'Adua. Still, with some help from the other gubernatorial friends, it appears that Mu'azu will pass the preliminary screening. Mu'azu and Odili hope that if Yar'Adua is sufficiently discredited by the news of his mental history, the doors of convention would be thrown open, Ahmadu explained. At this point, Mu'azu would be advanced as the ideal compromise candidate. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Intrigue within intrigue continues and will intensify in these last hours before the December 16 PDP convention. This plot to soil Yar'Adua and to elevate Mu'azu seems far-fetched. Given the protean character of Nigerian politics, there is likely more than a grain of truth to this strange account. However, we find it hard to believe Odili has given up hope of being on the PDP ticket. He has gone very far and spent a handsome amount just to let go so quickly. Odili is probably courting Mu'azu and others in an attempt to also keep his name in play, at least for the vice presidency slot. The scheme and counterplots will get stranger and even more desperate as these last hours tick away. End Comment. BROWNE