POLITICAL ADVISOR WARNS OF IMPENDING POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001406 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W STATE FOR INR/AA E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM NI SUBJECT: POLITICAL ADVISOR WARNS OF IMPENDING POLITICAL COLLISIONS Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 b and d ¶1. (C) Summary: In a meeting with Consul General, long-time advisor to former head of state Ibrahim Babangida (IBB), Ukandi Damachi, discussed the soured relations between IBB and President Obasanjo, suggesting the two heavyweights may be approaching a head-on collision because of their antagonism over the 2007 presidential race. Damachi claimed a presidential insider had confided in him that Katsina Governor Yar'Adua and Akwa Ibom Senator Udoma were the President's current favorites for the successor People's Democratic Party (PDP) ticket. Former NSA Gusau entered the PDP race to allow his mentor IBB a graceful exit before suffering an unceremonious defeat, according to Damachi. Despite his fabled closeness with President Obasanjo and his ample finances, Rivers Governor Odili appears to be a diminished factor in the presidency's latest political calculus. End summary. ¶2. (C) In a meeting with Consul General, long-time advisor to Ibrahim Babangida (IBB),Prof. Ukandi Damachi, said a rapprochement between IBB and President Obasanjo had been brokered about a month ago. However, the agreement collapsed almost as soon as it was christened. Even before the detritus was swept aside, IBB was visited by members of the PDP national secretariat. These functionaries informed the former military ruler that he should surrender all hope of receiving the party's presidential nomination. The reasons the delegates cited were a report holding IBB accountable for US$12bn oil windfall from the first Iraq war that escaped government coffers under his watch. Second, the delegation chastised IBB for his unwillingness to testify before the board of inquiry popularly known as the Oputa Panel, which was established to investigate human rights abuses during the years of military rule. ¶3. (C) The path IBB has selected has placed him on collision course with President Obasanjo, Damachi intimated. IBB said he would join forces with embattled Vice President Atiku and anyone else for that matter, to confront Obasanjo should the president fail to relinquish office at the end of his term. IBB vowed to precipitate a crisis if elections were not fair or if Obasanjo postponed elections to extend his stay beyond the constitutionally-mandated period. Given the slow gait of INEC electoral preparations and the frenetic pace of Obasanjo's political legerdemain, either one or both of IBB's conditions precedent would likely be fulfilled, Damachi exhaled. He continued that his conversation with IBB was quite animated. He recalled the former head of state's pique reached a level rarely exhibited by this usually reserved personality. Damachi concluded IBB had all but resigned himself to fight with Obasanjo. ¶4. (C) After the visit of PDP representatives to IBB, former National Security Advisor (NSA) Gusau entered the presidential campaign. Damachi claimed that Gusau, an IBB crony, entered the campaign for two reasons. First, Gusau's candidacy would be so publicly linked to IBB as to afford IBB a graceful way to exit the PDP fracas without admitting defeat. With Gusau chasing the grail, IBB would still be in the hunt by proxy. Also, part of Gusau's tack was to complicate matters for Obasanjo so that he could not steamroll his plans through the PDP. Gusau was sent to provoke dissension and inflict as many wounds on the PDP as possible in order to undermine Obasanjo's hopes of a smooth, unopposed annointment of a successor. ¶5. (C) As part of his bag of tricks, he said Gusau has a dossier on GON's ecological fund, estimated at US$80mn at the national level. Included in this dossier are checks signed by Obasanjo and Atiku to remove money from this account. Gusau plans to use this evidence to discredit both politicians, perhaps with the ultimate goal of dual impeachment, claimed Damachi. At the end of these parries, IBB will assess the damage wrought to the PDP. If the PDP is sufficiently damaged to the point of looking vulnerable, then he might decide to run for the presidency in another party, Damachi revealed. -------------- Presidential Candidate Manipulations -------------- ¶6. (C) Damachi, who is also close to Rivers State Governor Peter Odili, said IBB, during his brief rapprochement with the President, had considered Odili as a running mate because of the governor's ample war chest and loyalty to Obasanjo. Recently, however, IBB has dropped this idea in favor of Ebonyi State Governor Sam Egwu. According to Damachi, Odili's LAGOS 00001406 002 OF 002 stock has also fallen in other quarters, including the presidency. A factor in this has been the obloquies levelled at Odili by Albert Horsfall, himself a presidential candidate from the South-South. Horsfall's war chest is diminutive compared to Odili's. Thus, Horsfall cannot fight Odili naira for naira. To achieve his end of becoming the South-South's most plausible candidate, Horsfall must use guile to counterbalance Odili's money. (Comment: Damachi stated that IBB's preference for Egwu indicated that IBB had lost touch with political reality. Coming from Ebonyi State, Egwu is considered by most Igbos as only marginally a kingman. Egwu could not carry the Igbo Southeast and thus had no real value as a VP, according to Damachi. End comment.) ¶7. (C) Horsfall, IBB's State Security Services Director, has been making the rounds to inveigh behind closed doors against Odili. Damachi claimed Horsfall is sowing seeds with key decisionmakers that if Odili, an Igbo, is selected, the South-South will react in violent indignation at having an "outsider" assume their mantle. Only a true son of the region, such as an Ijaw like Horsfall, could hold the people together, is the former security chief's theme. Horsfall's invectives seem to have persuaded IBB and have also influenced Obasanjo, who has recently cooled toward Odili, observed Damachi. Well aware of Horsfall's strategy to undermine him, Odili intended to start his own dirty tricks against Horsfall, Damachi maintained. In the end, both might wind up destroying each other, allowing a third party to be the actual winner in this feud, laughed Damachi. ¶7. (C) Damachi offered an insider's view on the latest talk in the Presidential villa. Strangely, Delta State Governor and former presidential doghouse perennial, James Ibori, now figures prominently, after having angled himself into a close friendship with Obasanjo confidant Andy Uba. Ibori, Uba and others have been conferring and have also been effective at influencing the president's thinking. Damachi said the Uba-Ibori axis supported Katsina Governor Yar'Adua, with Kaduna Governor Makarfi a close second, for the presidential nomination. The governors of Bauchi and Nassarawa State remain in the running but at a fair distance behind these two, relayed Damachi. According to this insider, the South-South will be ceded the vice-presidential nomination. The group pushing for Yar'Adua is against Odili as VP because the latter is too ambitious and could likely overshadow, or seek to supplant, Yar'Adua. The group simultaneously discounted Horsfall as too eager a practitioner of dirty tricks. The group has written off Cross River Governor Donald Duke because he comes from a small ethnic minority. Two names mentioned by Damachi's source as the favorites were Akwa Ibom Senator Udoma Udoma and Andy Uba, though Uba, not from the South-South, would be a hard sell. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Comment: Given the velocity of meetings, shifting alliances, and the innate opportunism of many political figures, what is true today may be wrong tomorrow. Thus, what Damachi told us is, for the moment, fairly accurate but subject to sudden change or reversal. However, there are a few themes that might have acquired some permanence. First, Obasanjo seems intent on sidelining peers such as IBB, Gusau, and Atiku while these three seem equally intent on remaining relevant. If they cannot be the kings of Nigerian politics, they seek at least to remain kingmakers. As time passes, space for Obasanjo and these others to manoeuvr without colliding is quickly disappearing. Unless someone learns to turn the other cheek, Damachi's fear of a hot feud with Obasanjo on one side and IBB on the other is a strong possibility. Such a scenario has the potential to increase tension in Africa's most populous country. End comment. BROWNE