GOVERNOR ODILI ANNOUNCES PRESIDENTIAL BID

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001373

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: GOVERNOR ODILI ANNOUNCES PRESIDENTIAL BID


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (B) and (D
).


1. (C) Summary. Due to his purported friendship with
President Obasanjo and the money at his disposal, Rivers
State Governor Peter Odili is currently the south's most
formidable candidate for the 2007 PDP presidential
nomination. His Igbo heritage and south-south background
serve to make him an attractive candidate in the eyes of
those party insiders who want the presidency to remain in
southern hands. However, Odili will have a difficult time
convincing the PDP's northern members of the need to delay
their quest for a geographic shift. Moreover, his closeness
to Obasanjo is a dality, the negative aspect of which is
that Obasanjo's unpopularity will become his. Also, Odili
will be dogged by accusations of corruption and his own
mediocre performance at his current station. Nevertheless,
if he continues in the President's good graces and the
President retains control of the powerful PDP election
machinery, Odili has more than a fair chance of being on the
PDP presidential ticket. End Summary.

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Odili's Loyalty Keeps Him in Obasanjo's Good Graces
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2. (C) Most interlocutors believe President Obasanjo's
preferred option is to extend his term. Should he fail in
this, many contacts believe the president's fall back will be
Rivers State Governor Peter Odili. Those who see Odili
emerging are generally proponents of the presidency remaining
in the hands of southern Nigeria and not returning to the
North. These southern chauvinists are less interested in a
candidate's substantive program. Their minds are almost
monopolized by thoughts of who has the clout and assets to
seize control of the PDP power structure in the south. They
also argue that although the PDP is a national party, it is
stronger below Nigeria's Mason-Dixon line than above it.
Thus, the next candidate should come from the party's locus
of strength. Additionally, they state that the south-south,
given it is the home of the country's oil revenue, is
Nigeria's most strategic region. Consequently, the new
President should be a son of the south-south's soil.


3. (C) Additionally, many contacts cite Odili's loyalty and
obedience to the President--some would say
obsequiousness--are qualities the President values. That
Odili has apparently been giving the President generous
dollops of money over the years has cemented the
relationship. That President Obasanjo and Governor Odili are
reported to be the hidden investors behind the recent
formation of Arik Airlines, the nation's second carrier,
indicates the bond may be getting even stronger, not fraying.
Because Odili purportedly is a partner in Arik and other
ventures, President Obasanjo can be sure Odili will not
conduct an adversarial financial post-mortem on his
administration. Many observers believe Obasanjo is
preoccupied with the thought of being returned to prison, and
is looking for a successor who will eliminate this concern.

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Odili: The Ideal South-South Candidate?
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4. (C) To many, Odili appears to be a strong south-south
candidate. Supporters such as Nigeria's Ambassador to the
United States, George Obiozor, mentioned that Odili is an
excellent selection because his ascendancy would douse
tension in the strategically important Niger Delta. The very
fact that he hails from Rivers State would provide a respite
to the instability in the area. Should the next president be
other than a south-south candidate, the Delta could quickly
combust, Obiozor predicted. South-south detractors claim
that Odili is venal and his performance has lacked luster.
Some attribute the rise of armed militias to his authorship.
In many south-south circles, Odili's name is not bandied with
much affection--his popularity is suspect. Other critics
bemoan that security conditions worsened during his tenure as
chief executive of his state, and that this is but a
harbinger of what would happen should he elevate to become
the nation's first citizen.


5. (C) Odili is an ethnic Igbo and that could win him points
in the mainly Igbo southeast. However, Odili has not been
considered a hero in the Igbo community. Until now, he has
downplayed his ethnicity, seeing it as a political liability
in the south-south. Now, with his eyes set on broader
horizons, his strategy is to portray himself as a proud Igbo
from the south-south, thus linking two of southern Nigeria's

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political zones.

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Odili Vulnerable on Rivers State Development
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6. (C) Governor Odili's bid for the presidency comes
ostensibly to give the south-south its first taste of
national power. However, Odili,s performance as governor
has received harsh reviews from within the region he
purportedly is championing. Although his state has done some
road construction and some power projects, Mission contacts
generally decry a lack of development in Rivers State,
especially outside of Port Harcourt. Ostensibly to spur
development, Governor Odili started the Rivers State
Sustainable Development Project (RSSDP). The RSSDP
identified twelve projects ranging from rural telephony to
aquaculture to community health services. Although intended
to be "quick results projects", more than one year will have
elapsed from the projects' announcement to the first
project's expected launch in January of 2007. In short, the
RSSDP has failed to deliver jobs, health care or basic
governmental services in the state.

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Odili's Campaign Funding: Rivers State Oil Revenue
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7. (C) Presidential campaigns cost money and this is
something Odili has in abundance. As Governor of Rivers
State, he controls the 13 percent share (derivation) that the
state receives every month from the Federal Government as its
portion of oil revenues. Most people believe Odili is
liberally using state funds as subvention for his
presidential campaign. While critics cry foul, most
politicians see this as an asset that makes Odili a strong
candidate. The funds can be used to attract support and
influence the party in a system where many politicians cast
their loyalty to whosoever can pay for it.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) One's assessment of Governor Odili's chances depends
on what type of electoral process that person envisions. The
more one sees this election and party nomination as an
exercise reflecting popular opinion, the weaker are Odili's
chances. However, the more the process looks to be an
exercise guided by elite interests, the more attractive Odili
becomes. His money will attract a crop of politicians. His
Igbo ethnicity and south-south political home links him to
two geo-political zones in the south. His closeness to
President Obasanjo will open the door to the third southern
zone. An attractive northern vice presidential candidate
would then provide linkage to another zone, giving Odili
significant connections in four of Nigeria's six zones. In
the equation of elite politics, this outcome is an impressive
one.


9. (C) While these calculations seem superficial to
outsiders, they hold significant meaning to many Nigerian
politicians. At the end of the day, Odili's chances of
gaining the PDP nomination hinge on his relationship to
President Obasanjo. After that, his chances of winning the
big prize will depend on his ability to campaign and to
explain his record, the quality of his opponents, and perhaps
most importantly, on whether the PDP can use the power of
incumbency to influence the election as it did in 2003. End
Comment.
BROWNE