OONI & MINISTER KAYODE: ODILI IS STRONG, NEXT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001371

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: OONI & MINISTER KAYODE: ODILI IS STRONG, NEXT
PRESIDENT NEEDS DIVERSE CABINET


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (B) and (
D)


1. (C) Summary. On October 23, the Consul General met then
Minister of Culture and Tourism (now the Minister of
Aviation) Chief Fani Kayode, and the Ooni of Ife, the
Yoruba's most prominent traditional leader and a close ally
of President Obasanjo. The Ooni said President Obasanjo was
prepared to leave office but was not prepared to relinquish
national power to the North. The Ooni believed Governor
Peter Odili of Rivers State was the strongest southern
candidate and thus the Ooni supported him. Both the Ooni and
the Minister recommended that the next President not only
have a northern running mate but a geographically diverse
cabinet as well. End Summary.

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South-South Odili Is the Strongest Candidate
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2. (C) If the Niger Delta fails to claim the 2007
Presidency, that region could detonate, exclaimed traditional
Yoruba leader and close ally of President Obasanjo, the Ooni
of Ife, in an October 23 meeting with the Consul General.
The south-south has never controlled Nigeria and has been
clamoring for its turn, the Nigerian Minister of Culture and
Tourism, Chief Fani Kayode echoed. Governor Peter Odili of
Rivers State is the southern candidate with the most
political muscle and sufficiently hardened temperament to win
an election and govern a nation as difficult as Nigeria, the
Ooni postulated.


3. (C) Assessing other presidential/vice presidential
candidates' weaknesses, the Ooni said Cross River's Donald
Duke was Odili's main southern competitor but ultimately was
a novice who needed more seasoning before aspriing for the
top office. Turning north, he said Governor Ahmadu Adamu
Mu'azu of Bauchi has done well but is from a small state.
Governor Alhaji Ahmed Mohammed Makarfi of Kaduna has talent
but is physically frail.

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Need Regionally Diverse Cabinet
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4. (C) While reinforcing the Ooni's support of Odili, Kayode
stressed the importance of geopolitically diverse cabinet
appointments. Minister Kayode said that the election of a
President and Vice President would only satisfy two of
Nigeria's six geopolitical zones. The only way to take the
sting out of not getting one of the top posts is to ensure
that the other zones get key cabinet positions of significant
interest to those zones. Kayode said he would stress to
President Obasanjo the need to incorporate representatives
from other zones in the cabinet.


5. (C) The Ooni described the selection of Nigeria's next
group of leaders as a negotiation process. Care must be
taken to make sure all important interests were satisfied.
Right now, given the problems in the Niger Delta and the
cardinal importance of that region to Nigeria's salubrity, it
made sense to give that region the Presidency. Conversely,
the Ooni warned that returning the Presidency to the North
would be retrograde. A northern president would fall
eventually under the spell of an atavistic northern elite
intent on smiting the reforms of the Obasanjo administration,
the Ooni asserted. According to the Ooni, a president from
the Niger Delta would have a greater affinity for the United
States than a northerner would. A south-south president
would be more amenable to U.S. influence and recommendations,
the Ooni gesticulated.

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Comment
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6. (C) The Ooni believes Governor Odili is the best choice
as the President's successor and the Ooni also believes the

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President sees Odili in the same light. That Minister Kaydoe
endorsed the Ooni's position reveals, in part, the extent to
which a younger Yoruba must act almost diffident around a
traditional elder. However, it also indicates that Odili is
in the good books of the President's insiders. While perhaps
not the most popular aspirant, Odili is thus far the
south-south's most visible one. Having allies like the Ooni
will only help Odili in the backroom give-and-take that will
likely produce the next PDP presidential candidate. End
Comment.
BROWNE