UTOMI: WHO IS THE CLEVEREST POLITICAL PLAYER?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 001352

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: UTOMI: WHO IS THE CLEVEREST POLITICAL PLAYER?


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (B) and (
D)


1. (C) Summary. During an October 19 conversation with the
Consul General, Presidential aspirant and Lagos Business
School Director Pat Utomi asserted that President Obasanjo
masterminded the impeachment crisis in Ekiti State as part of
his strategy to sow political confusion in order to postpone
the election and extend his term in office. Utomi also
contended that Minister for Federal Capital Territory Nasir
El-Rufai has been taken prisoner by his own presidential
ambitions and that EFCC Chairman Ribadu is abetting El-Rufai
by attempting to discredit the Vice President and several of
the more visible governors who stand in the way of El Rufai's
goal. If the elections do not produce a south-south
sensitive candidate, Utomi hypothesized the Niger Delta will
quickly deteriorate. While recognizing that he does not have
much of a political structure now, Utomi believed he had done
sufficient spadework to get the majority of Christian
organizations on his side. He beamed optimistically about
his chance of getting the endorsement of Lagos State Governor
Bola Tinubu and Tinubu's new party, the Action Congress. End
Summary.

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Ekiti Crisis: A Smokescreen for Term-Extension?
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2. (C) On October 19, presidential aspirant Pat Utomi
confided to the Consul General that he feared President
Obasanjo masterminded the Ekiti impeachment crisis.
Declaring a state of emergency in Ekiti was another link in a
dubious concatenation that Obasanjo hopes will cause such
confusion that holding elections on schedule would become
untenable. As part of this benighted project, President
Obasanjo also has intentionally pauperized INEC so that it
would not have sufficient logistical assets to conduct
elections, believes Utomi. Last, Utomi hypothesized that the
quest for a third term constitutional amendment was dormant,
not dead. Utomi expected it would soon be revived.


3. (C) Utomi believed that Obasanjo's combative personality
and his thrawn penchant for converting friends into enemies
and enemies into political untouchables has pasted the
President into a corner. Obasanjo feared the retribution
that might be exacted should an unfriendly capture the 2007
elections, Utomi contended. Utomi believed Obasanjo's
friends should find the President a graceful way to exit.
For example, an unprecedented United Nations/African Union
special envoy position might be attractive enough to
peacefully draw Obasanjo away from Aso Villa. However, such
an opportunity would need to be delicately suggested to
Obasanjo as a prestigious position worthy of his person.

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Is the Ball Out of Ribadu and El-Rufai's Court?
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4. (C) According to Utomi, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, Minister
for Federal Capital Territory, has been secretly nursing
presidential ambition for a long time. Claiming that
El-Rufai may be as manipulative as he is intelligent, Utomi
said El-Rufai had a conscious plan to set Obasajo and Atiku
at each other. With a foot in both camps, El-Rufai played on
the insecurities of both men in a way that would make
Shakespeare's Iago jealous. In the end, El-Rufai played a
leading role in the Obasanjo-Atiku estrangement. This was
all part of El-Rufai's plan to eliminate wholesale potential
rivals for the 2007 PDP nomination, Utomi offered.


5. (C) The other main cog in El-Rufai's design is Economic
and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) Chairman Mal Nuhu
Ribadu's apparent crusade against state governors. El-Rufai
knows he does not have the financial war chest or political
structures and visibility of some of these governors, several
of whom also eye the Presidency. Thus his close friend
Ribadu is attempting to corral as many governors as possible.
In exchange, Ribadu has been promised the slot of National
Security Advisor or Inspector General of Police should

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El-Rufai ascend to the top of the pole. However, El-Rufai's
plans are beginning to backfire, Utomi indicated.


6. (C) First, Ribadu's moves have generated too much
friction. This is causing Ribadu and El-Rufai a loss of
goodwill in many important political quarters. Perhaps more
importantly, President Obasanjo has an inkling of El-Rufai's
desires and is not altogether pleased by machinations that do
not dovetail with those of his own. According to Utomi,
El-Rufai and some of "the reformers" in the President's
cabinet, including the Education Minister and Ribadu, held a
meeting in London to map out their 2007 strategy, with
El-Rufai succeeding Obasanjo. President Obasanjo learned of
this unauthorized meeting after the fact and from sources
other than the participants, continued Utomi. This
apparently has created some distance between Obasanjo and his
reformers, Utomi maintained.

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Disillusionment Towards 2007 Elections
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7. (C) The constitution is honored in the breach, the census
is a political albatross, and INEC is being consumed by the
enormity of the task it faces, Utomi lamented. He doubted
INEC's competency and denigrated the idea of computerizing
the electoral process at this late stage. The 2003 elections
were flawed, Utomi said, and he predicted little better in

2007.

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Presidential Aspirants Foiling Each Others' Chances
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8. (C) Pat Utomi did not postulate who will win the 2007
presidency, suggesting he considers himself a strong
candidate. Aides of General Ibrahim Babangida asked Utomi to
become Babangida's running mate, Utomi recalled. He thought
Babangida's camp wanted his Igbo and south-south background
to balance the ticket. However, given Babangida's mephitic
antecedents, Utomi said his reaction was but to grimace at
the suggested association. Not yet affiliated with a party,
Utomi is considering running under the Action Congress with a
northern running mate. He stated he has had several
conversations with AC leader and chief financer, Lagos
Governor Tinubu, in this regard. Utomi thought he would
augment his candidacy through the eventual backing of
Christian associations throughout the country. Further,
Utomi thought he could get the Vice President,s backing once
Atiku recognizes that he is out of the Presidential race.


9. (C) As for other presidential aspirants, Utomi commented
that Buhari is easily the most popular candidate in the north
but was being out maneuvered in his own party and had only de
minimus support in the south. Rivers State Governor Peter
Odili will be the first to go to jail if EFCC Chairman Ribadu
has any say, Utomi laughed.

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Niger Delta Nightmare
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10. (C) Utomi described the Niger Delta as "still at war,"
suggesting youth will be armed for political gain as they
were in 2003. Utomi noted that during a recent visit to
jailed Ijaw leader Mujahid Dokubo-Asari, Asari was surrounded
by members of the Ijaw Youth Council. When Utomi joked that
he has no campaign funds for the upcoming elections, the
youth said they could simply take hostages for money. If the
south-south does not see the next president as sympathetic to
their plight, things will further deteriorate and fast, Utomi
warned. Utomi speculated that Asari,s release would help
stem violence in the Delta.

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Comment
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11. (C) Utomi's assessment of the political landscape echoes

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what others have said. What Utomi saw is a President who is
hesitant to leave, an electoral body that is lazy and
uninspired, political aspirants doing their best to destroy
their opponents and a Niger Delta that is turbid and
gradually approaching its boiling point. Through this much
and more, Utomi thinks he can navigate a course that will
lead him to the Presidency. He has a positive image, name
recognition, and many Nigerians pine for change. Yet without
a party and a large pocketbook, his quest remains a steep
climb. End Comment.
BROWNE