IJAW CHIEF: WARRI IS A POWDER KEG

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAGOS 001305

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: IJAW CHIEF: WARRI IS A POWDER KEG


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (B) and (
D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. On September 18, national Ijaw leader Chief
Edwin Clark told the Consul General that, due to the eruptive
mixture of poverty, ethnic rivalry and imminent electoral
politics, Warri, Delta State, has become a powder keg waiting
to ignite. Clark strongly advocated Nigeria,s next
president should come from the south-south geopolitical zone.
Additionally, Clark and other Ijaw leaders highlighted the
difficulties of voter registration and their concerns
surrounding the upcoming elections. Chief Clark raised Ijaw
concerns regarding the offshore monitoring teams recently
discussed at the Gulf of Guinea talks. END SUMMARY.

--------------
POWDER KEG
--------------


2. (C) Holding forth with a score of subordinate Ijaw
traditional leaders as his retinue, Chief Edwin Clark
received the Consul General and political officer in his
Warri abode. Warri is Delta State's most important entrepot
and also the home of Chevron's Escravos facility. Meeting
with Chief Clark is usually an educative if sometimes
boisterous affair. Politics in Nigeria's south-south can be
theatric and Chief Clark is one of the zone's preeminent
actors. Ijaw political culture lends itself to exaggerated
language. Subtlety is not the preferred fare. Clark is an
accomplished rhetorician in this school of political
discourse.


3. (C) Clark bluntly told the Consul General that "Warri is
a powder keg." Electoral competition was compounding
long-simmering ethnic discord to produce an explosive
mixture. The peace that Warri was now experiencing was a
cold one. It could be defined as the absence of fighting but
not as the existence of an accord, he explained. An increase
in tension could ignite the politically toxic fumes that fill
the Warri air, he said. Chief Clark pointed to the Delta
State gubernatorial race as the likely detonator. Although
there were nearly 30 candidates for the seat, incumbent
Governor Ibori has signaled his support for his first cousin
and fellow Itsekiri, the Secretary of State Government.
Clark saw this as ethnic arrogance that had the collateral
effect of sidelining Ijaw aspirations. He warned the Ijaws
would not sit still while Governor Ibori sought to create a
family dynasty. Ijaws are the largest group in Warri and
Warri is the economic jugular of the state, he proclaimed.
Consequently, Ijaws had a right to claim the governorship or,
at least, have a major voice in determining the State,s next
boss, Clark groused.

--------------
2007 ELECTIONS
--------------


4. (C) Chief Clark's comments on the feud between President
Obasanjo and Vice President Atiku were surprisingly
restrained. Usually animated by the sheer mention of
Obasanjo's name into a torrent of invectives, Clark opined
the feud between the two was unfortunate and bad for
Nigeria's international image. He opposed any move to
impeach either man claiming impeachment, especially a dual
impeachment, would severely complicate the electoral picture,
perhaps retarding the electoral timetable. He preferred more
attention be focused on electoral preparation and less on the
feud in the presidency. Clark then proposed that traditional
leaders from across Nigeria get together in order to moderate
between Obasanjo and Atiku. (COMMENT: Clark,s relative
benevolence to Obasanjo was not vintage Clark. Perhaps Clark
is trying to help maintain a degree of civility because he
has helped facilitate the informal ceasefire between the GON
and the Delta-based Ijaw group, FNDIC. More cynically, there
are rumors that Obasanjo has shuffled hush money to these
Warri-based militants and Clark may have been an indirect
beneficiary of this subvention. END COMMENT.)


5. (C) Clark turned his attention to the issue that
currently piques his interests, the presidential campaign.
Back to the fiery rhetoric he usually hurtles at the
President, the Ijaw leader declared that Obasanjo would be
sorely mistaken if he thought he could hand pick his
successor. Moreover, the successor could not be a
northerner. Northerners have ruled too long and have
exploited the south-south's oil revenue too much, he
complained. Clark felt that a Northern President would be
retrogressive, seeking to reestablish the northern political
elite as the ruling class over all Nigeria.


6. (C) Clark then squarely aimed at his objective, a
south-south presidency. Clark asserted only a president from
that region could ensure that sufficient revenue and
development efforts would be delivered to the area. Carried
away by his own rhetoric and feeling comfortable with his
minions sitting around him, Clark asked for USG support for a
south-south candidate. At this point, Clark,s plea for a
south-south candidate and USG support was joined by Admiral
Mike Akhigbe, second in command in the Abdulsalam government
and also a current presidential candidate.


7. (C) The Consul General responded that it would be wholly
inappropriate for the US or any diplomatic mission to accede
to such an unconventional request and that it was wholly
inappropriate for them to have asked it. Instead of
insisting on a regional favorite son, the CG continued, they
should be focused on a candidate who could address some of
the nation,s pressing issues, including economic development
in the Niger Delta. However, if politics was played solely
at the level of regional or ethnic bias, the elections will
be a fractious, ultimately unsatisfactory affair. Politics
should be an enterprise based more on ability than on
ethnicity or regional affinity, he said.


8. (C) Chief Clark highlighted many Ijaw leaders' concerns
over the confusing voter registration process. A recently
passed electoral law has confused many people as to whether
or not they can still register to vote, Chief Clark lamented.
To remedy the confusion, Clark suggested the law be
clarified and for voter registration to be constitutionally
defined before the upcoming elections.

--------------
GULF OF GUINEA AND SOUTH-SOUTH CONCERNS
--------------


9. (C) Chief Clark pressed discussion on the recent Gulf of
Guinea talks. Clark feared that U.S. and U.K. involvement in
these talks meant the U.S. or U.K. would channel lethal
military assistance to the GON which would eventually be used
against Ijaw groups in the Delta. (NOTE: Nigerian media
reports suggested that during recent Gulf of Guinea talks the
U.S. offered to send Marines to the Niger Delta to help the
GON secure the region. END NOTE.) The CG explained to Clark
that provision of lethal equipment was not on the table nor
in the cards at the Gulf of Guinea talks. Prevention of
bunkering and piracy in the blue water were important topics
of discussion but since both these activities cheat the
people of the Delta, the CG stated that Clark and other Ijaw
leaders should support the talks.


10. (C) Chief Clark referred to the recent UNDP report on
the Niger Delta as an embarrassment to Nigeria. Peace in the
Niger Delta would lead to peace in the country, Clark
claimed. Akhigbe said national greed is responsible for
holding money in the country,s center and attributed lack of
Niger Delta,s development to the malevolent force. Further
berating the government, Chief Clark said much of the recent
hostage taking was the joint enterprise of errant militants
and unscrupulous government officials who siphoned sums from
the ransom moneys they had been entrusted to pay to obtain
the release of hostages. Clark also inveighed against the
GON and the military for the killing of several Ijaw youths
during the late August release of a Shell employee.
Resorting to his incendiary norm, Clark referred to the
incident as proof the GON wanted to exterminate the Ijaw
people.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) Despite his penchant for the dramatic, Chief Clark's
comments that Warri is combustive should not be disregarded.
Recent conversations with other tribal chiefs in Warri paint
a picture of a city troubled by itself. Immediate and
substantial development efforts may be the city's best if not
only protection against denizens of differing ethnic groups
setting upon each other. END COMMENT.
BROWNE