IJAW CHIEF: WARRI IS A POWDER KEG

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAGOS 001305 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W STATE FOR INR/AA E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV NI SUBJECT: IJAW CHIEF: WARRI IS A POWDER KEG Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (B) and ( D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On September 18, national Ijaw leader Chief Edwin Clark told the Consul General that, due to the eruptive mixture of poverty, ethnic rivalry and imminent electoral politics, Warri, Delta State, has become a powder keg waiting to ignite. Clark strongly advocated Nigeria,s next president should come from the south-south geopolitical zone. Additionally, Clark and other Ijaw leaders highlighted the difficulties of voter registration and their concerns surrounding the upcoming elections. Chief Clark raised Ijaw concerns regarding the offshore monitoring teams recently discussed at the Gulf of Guinea talks. END SUMMARY. -------------- POWDER KEG -------------- ¶2. (C) Holding forth with a score of subordinate Ijaw traditional leaders as his retinue, Chief Edwin Clark received the Consul General and political officer in his Warri abode. Warri is Delta State's most important entrepot and also the home of Chevron's Escravos facility. Meeting with Chief Clark is usually an educative if sometimes boisterous affair. Politics in Nigeria's south-south can be theatric and Chief Clark is one of the zone's preeminent actors. Ijaw political culture lends itself to exaggerated language. Subtlety is not the preferred fare. Clark is an accomplished rhetorician in this school of political discourse. ¶3. (C) Clark bluntly told the Consul General that "Warri is a powder keg." Electoral competition was compounding long-simmering ethnic discord to produce an explosive mixture. The peace that Warri was now experiencing was a cold one. It could be defined as the absence of fighting but not as the existence of an accord, he explained. An increase in tension could ignite the politically toxic fumes that fill the Warri air, he said. Chief Clark pointed to the Delta State gubernatorial race as the likely detonator. Although there were nearly 30 candidates for the seat, incumbent Governor Ibori has signaled his support for his first cousin and fellow Itsekiri, the Secretary of State Government. Clark saw this as ethnic arrogance that had the collateral effect of sidelining Ijaw aspirations. He warned the Ijaws would not sit still while Governor Ibori sought to create a family dynasty. Ijaws are the largest group in Warri and Warri is the economic jugular of the state, he proclaimed. Consequently, Ijaws had a right to claim the governorship or, at least, have a major voice in determining the State,s next boss, Clark groused. -------------- 2007 ELECTIONS -------------- ¶4. (C) Chief Clark's comments on the feud between President Obasanjo and Vice President Atiku were surprisingly restrained. Usually animated by the sheer mention of Obasanjo's name into a torrent of invectives, Clark opined the feud between the two was unfortunate and bad for Nigeria's international image. He opposed any move to impeach either man claiming impeachment, especially a dual impeachment, would severely complicate the electoral picture, perhaps retarding the electoral timetable. He preferred more attention be focused on electoral preparation and less on the feud in the presidency. Clark then proposed that traditional leaders from across Nigeria get together in order to moderate between Obasanjo and Atiku. (COMMENT: Clark,s relative benevolence to Obasanjo was not vintage Clark. Perhaps Clark is trying to help maintain a degree of civility because he has helped facilitate the informal ceasefire between the GON and the Delta-based Ijaw group, FNDIC. More cynically, there are rumors that Obasanjo has shuffled hush money to these Warri-based militants and Clark may have been an indirect beneficiary of this subvention. END COMMENT.) ¶5. (C) Clark turned his attention to the issue that currently piques his interests, the presidential campaign. Back to the fiery rhetoric he usually hurtles at the President, the Ijaw leader declared that Obasanjo would be sorely mistaken if he thought he could hand pick his successor. Moreover, the successor could not be a northerner. Northerners have ruled too long and have exploited the south-south's oil revenue too much, he complained. Clark felt that a Northern President would be retrogressive, seeking to reestablish the northern political elite as the ruling class over all Nigeria. ¶6. (C) Clark then squarely aimed at his objective, a south-south presidency. Clark asserted only a president from that region could ensure that sufficient revenue and development efforts would be delivered to the area. Carried away by his own rhetoric and feeling comfortable with his minions sitting around him, Clark asked for USG support for a south-south candidate. At this point, Clark,s plea for a south-south candidate and USG support was joined by Admiral Mike Akhigbe, second in command in the Abdulsalam government and also a current presidential candidate. ¶7. (C) The Consul General responded that it would be wholly inappropriate for the US or any diplomatic mission to accede to such an unconventional request and that it was wholly inappropriate for them to have asked it. Instead of insisting on a regional favorite son, the CG continued, they should be focused on a candidate who could address some of the nation,s pressing issues, including economic development in the Niger Delta. However, if politics was played solely at the level of regional or ethnic bias, the elections will be a fractious, ultimately unsatisfactory affair. Politics should be an enterprise based more on ability than on ethnicity or regional affinity, he said. ¶8. (C) Chief Clark highlighted many Ijaw leaders' concerns over the confusing voter registration process. A recently passed electoral law has confused many people as to whether or not they can still register to vote, Chief Clark lamented. To remedy the confusion, Clark suggested the law be clarified and for voter registration to be constitutionally defined before the upcoming elections. -------------- GULF OF GUINEA AND SOUTH-SOUTH CONCERNS -------------- ¶9. (C) Chief Clark pressed discussion on the recent Gulf of Guinea talks. Clark feared that U.S. and U.K. involvement in these talks meant the U.S. or U.K. would channel lethal military assistance to the GON which would eventually be used against Ijaw groups in the Delta. (NOTE: Nigerian media reports suggested that during recent Gulf of Guinea talks the U.S. offered to send Marines to the Niger Delta to help the GON secure the region. END NOTE.) The CG explained to Clark that provision of lethal equipment was not on the table nor in the cards at the Gulf of Guinea talks. Prevention of bunkering and piracy in the blue water were important topics of discussion but since both these activities cheat the people of the Delta, the CG stated that Clark and other Ijaw leaders should support the talks. ¶10. (C) Chief Clark referred to the recent UNDP report on the Niger Delta as an embarrassment to Nigeria. Peace in the Niger Delta would lead to peace in the country, Clark claimed. Akhigbe said national greed is responsible for holding money in the country,s center and attributed lack of Niger Delta,s development to the malevolent force. Further berating the government, Chief Clark said much of the recent hostage taking was the joint enterprise of errant militants and unscrupulous government officials who siphoned sums from the ransom moneys they had been entrusted to pay to obtain the release of hostages. Clark also inveighed against the GON and the military for the killing of several Ijaw youths during the late August release of a Shell employee. Resorting to his incendiary norm, Clark referred to the incident as proof the GON wanted to exterminate the Ijaw people. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) Despite his penchant for the dramatic, Chief Clark's comments that Warri is combustive should not be disregarded. Recent conversations with other tribal chiefs in Warri paint a picture of a city troubled by itself. Immediate and substantial development efforts may be the city's best if not only protection against denizens of differing ethnic groups setting upon each other. END COMMENT. BROWNE