KADUNA GOVERNOR BULLISH ABOUT PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001087

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: KADUNA GOVERNOR BULLISH ABOUT PRESIDENTIAL
PROSPECTS


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) During a late July conversation with the Consul
General, Kaduna State Governor Ahmed Makarfi predicted the
presidency would return to the north. Among the Northern
governors, Makarfi thought he had the inside track to getting
President Obasanjo's approval and clinching the PDP
nomination. Makarfi claims a majority of the PDP governors
favor a return to the north. Of the contending northern PDP
governors -- Adamu of Nassarawa, Mu'azu of Bauchi, Turaki of
Jigawa, and Yar'Adua of Katsina -- all have significant
handicaps except him. To strengthen his position, Makarfi
has been assiduously traversing the country, consulting with
key figures in all six of Nigeria's political zones. He has
also been careful to consult regularly with President
Obasanjo. However, recently Makarfi has gotten a little too
comfortable with the media about his presidential ambitions.
Attracting too much of the political spotlight could cause
the usually cautious Makarfi to run afoul of an irascible
President. End summary.

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A MAJORITY OF ZONES AGREE THE PRESIDENCY SHOULD GO NORTH
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2. (C) In a relaxed recent meeting in Lagos, Kaduna State
Governor Ahmed Makarfi, accompanied by Idi Farouk, Director
General of the National Orientation Agency, told the Consul
General he was leading the pack to be President Obasanjo's
chosen successor. Makarfi stated that a sitting governor was
the most likely successor given the power of the governors
within the PDP. He further explained that a majority of the
PDP governors favored a successor from the north. Governors
from the three northern zones obviously supported a northern
candidate, continued Makarfi. A bit more surprisingly, all
PDP southwestern governors supported a northern candidate.
The Southwest governors recognized the PDP must field a
northern candidate to counter Vice President Atiku or former
military head-of-state Buhari, contended Makarfi. If the PDP
did not field a northerner, it would yield the northern vote
to Atiku or Buhari, the southwesterners posit. Believing
they could win the North decisively would give Atiku or
Buhari greater latitude in selecting a vice-presidential
running mate for all that would be required would be to carry
one of the three southern geopolitical zones. Conceivably,
Atiku or Buhari could set their sights on the Southwest by
selecting Lagos Governor Tinubu as a running mate. Should
Tinubu be a VP candidate, the PDP Southwest governors fear
this could steer the Yorubas to back Tinubu and the slate of
gubernatorial candidates under him. This would be the
ruination of the PDP's electoral chance to retain the
governorships of the Yoruba Southwest. However, if the PDP
picked a northern candidate the north would also be a
battleground for votes and Atiku and Buhari would have less
of a margin of error when selecting a running mate. If the
PDP selected a running mate from the South-South or
Southeast, Atiku and Buhari would likely have to follow suit
because they would fear the loss of that zone. Thus Tinubu
would not rise to the stature of a VP candidate and would not
be a strong magnet attracting Yoruba votes away from the PDP
in the Southwest. Further buttressing his belief that the
presidential nomination will swing north, Makarfi cited
several other southern governors who favored a northern
president -- Delta State's James Ibori, Edo State's Lucky
Igbinedion, and Ebonyi State's Sam Egwu.

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...AND IF NORTH, I'M THE MAN, SAYS MAKARFI
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3. (C) Makarfi asserted there were few candidates who have
a realistic chance. The idea of reconciling the President
and Vice President Atiku is now anathema to both men.
Abdullahi Adamu of Nassarawa State was unpopular, "a northern
Peter Odili" minus the charm, Makarfi quipped. Bauchi
State's Adamu Mu'azu removed himself from contention by
fumbling the third term, and now was unpopular in his home
state. Jigawa State's Saminu Turaki only recently joined the
PDP, and has been an absentee governor, Makarfi charged.
Even Katsina State's Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, whom Makarfi called
a friend, was too unassertive and much too parochial in
outlook. Therefore, Makarfi concluded that he would be the
only man left standing.


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4. (C) Additionally, Makarfi claimed two other factors
bolster his cause with the President. Makarfi and Atiku
publicly tiffed several years back, and the encounter earned
him the President's favor. Obasanjo occasionally mentions
the episode, and congratulated the governor for showing his
mettle, revealed Makarfi. Additionally, the President
recognizes Kaduna is a complicated state, in some ways a
microcosm of Nigeria, with Muslims in the north and
Christians in the south. His experience as governor has
prepared him for the higher office, Makarfi asserted.


5. (C) Last, Governor Makarfi said he has kept close to the
President, consulting him regularly. Makarfi said he always
gets Obasanjo's approval before going to other parts of the
country or attending major events. Also, he makes sure he
gives Obasanjo a full brief of what he picks up during these
forays, Makarfi declared.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) Governor Makarfi was optimistic the PDP presidential
nomination would go north, and logically fall to him.
Makarfi has skillfully navigated the political currents to
remain close to the President. Makarfi is seen as an
Obasanjo man, but most people know that this is a matter of
strategy and not abject loyalty. However, Makarfi may be
inching into the limelight a bit too early. His increased
media attention could undo the careful behind-the-scenes
cultivation at which he has heretofore performed well. At
this stage it is unwise to assume Obasanjo is willing to
relinquish most of the spotlight. Perhaps realizing this,
Makarfi adjusted his media sights a bit lower over the
weekend, releasing a statement that he would be amenable to
being a VP to a southern candidate. Not only was that wise
because such a statement makes it hard to charge Makarfi with
being a northern chauvinist. It also opens the door for
Makarfi to supplant Atiku as VP should Obasanjo somehow
revive his third term quest. End comment.
BROWNE