CONNECTED BUSINESSMAN'S PRESIDENTIAL UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001082 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W STATE FOR INR/AA E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV NI SUBJECT: CONNECTED BUSINESSMAN'S PRESIDENTIAL UPDATE REF: LAGOS 802 Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) During a July 15 conversation with the Consul General, politically-connected businessman Leno Adesina asserted President Obasanjo was gearing up for another try at term extension. To counter this, Vice President Atiku was hatching plans to impeach the President in the early fall. Atiku hoped to time his move to preempt the President from moving decisively toward tenure extension. End summary. -------------- THE THIRD TERM THAT WILL NOT DIE... -------------- ¶2. (C) In a recent conversation with the Consul General, politically-connected Lagos-based businessman Leno Adesina said President Obasanjo's loyalists are gearing up to resurrect the third term amendment in the National Assembly. Debate on the constitutional amendment was shelved in May, stated Adesina. That six-month period ends in November. Adesina asserted the PDP convention, originally slated for the September/October period, was moved to December to accommodate the President's desire to have another chance at amending the constitution. If the convention occurred prior to the amendment, then the convention would have to select someone other than Obasanjo, Adesina explained. ¶3. (C) To pay for the renewed third term push and the anticipated need to buy support, key GON officials have been tasked to quickly consummate large-scale government contracts, Adesina asserted. In addition to these financial inducements, Adesina contended the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) would be used to persuade the more recalcitrant legislators to support the third term or risk losing the party's nomination for their seat and perhaps jail as well. ¶4. (C) In the event Obasanjo could not make the third term work, he would probably opt for a successor governor from the north, Adesina claims. However, Adesina warned that Obasanjo would not name a northern governor until the eleventh hour when it became clear all hope for term extension was lost. -------------- -------------- ...WHILE ATIKU CAREFULLY MANEUVERS FOR OBASANJO IMPEACHMENT -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Adesina said Vice President Atiku remained focused on impeachment of the President to keep Obasanjo off-balance (reftel). Atiku was trying to gather the required votes, and would not move until he was sure of sufficient support, Adesina stressed. Atiku understood the President had not discarded his third term ambitions, Adesina continued. Atiku wanted to begin the impeachment no later than October in order to preempt Obasanjo's rejuvenation of the third term amendment. ¶6. (C) Atiku realized to impeach Obasanjo would require Atiku's maintaining a delicate political balance. First he would have to find a way of assuring other contenders that he was not engineering the impeachment so that he could vault to the presidency and use his incumbency to determine the 2007 election. If other anti-Obasanjo figures thought Atiku was trying to pre-position himself thusly, then the effort to impeach was doomed, Adesina calculated. Additionally, Atiku does not want to be outmaneuvered by Northern figures who also want to douse his presidential ambitions. According to Adesina, some Northerners have been bruiting the notion that the only way to get Obasanjo to leave office is to guarantee that Atiku does not succeed him. Consequently, Atiku has to make sure that the impeachment effort he begins does not snowball to also consume its author, Adesina joked. ¶7. (C) Ultimately, Adesina concluded, the Northern power structure will ask Atiku to sacrifice his ambition if they believe that is the price to pay for Obasanjo to genuinely disavow tenure extension and allow the election to proceed. Adesina believed that Atiku, a sensible if venal man, would succumb to this pressure, as long as he was assured of having a say in who would succeed Obasanjo. -------------- COMMENT LAGOS 00001082 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶8. (C) Adesina has his feet in multiple political camps, related to President Obasanjo by marriage, but a business partner of Vice President Atiku as well as former military head-of-state Babangida. He is well-placed to provide insight into their maneuverings. Adesina's assertions of the President's renewed term extension efforts are hardly surprising. Atiku's strategy to tie Obasanjo up in impeachment proceedings is reminiscent of Atiku's strategy in the 2003 electoral season, when Obasanjo tried to jettison him. However, the stakes are even higher and the game more complicated this time. While each is trying to toss the other off the mat, very interested third parties are trying to see how they can use this intense rivalry to get both the President and Vice President out of the game. End comment. BROWNE