UKRAINE/BELARUS: PLANNING A POSSIBLE PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 004647 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/UMB E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2016 TAGS: PREL PBTS MNUC PINR BO UP SUBJECT: UKRAINE/BELARUS: PLANNING A POSSIBLE PRESIDENTIAL MEETING REF: A. KIEV 2039 ¶B. KIEV 1444 ¶C. KIEV 1062 ¶D. 05 KIEV 4302 Classified By: The Ambassador for reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary/comment: According to the MFA, Ukrainian Presidential Secretariat Chief of Staff Baloha's December 14 visit to Minsk was intended to maintain momentum toward a possible meeting between the Ukrainian and Belarusan presidents in the February-March 2007 timeframe. The meeting, if it occurs, would take place in the Ukraine-Belarus border region near Chornobyl, confirming DFM Veselovskiy's comment to us that there were no plans for "a major bilateral state visit." In exchange for the meeting, Ukraine hopes to obtain an agreement to facilitate the transfer of workers across a strip of Belarusan territory as they commute from Slavutych to the Chornobyl nuclear power plant. The MFA official cited the cost savings from an agreement and the growing importance of trade with Belarus, with trade turn-over reaching U.S. $2 billion and growing. The renewed impetus to hold the meeting reflects the Ukrainian government's emphasis on economic and trade factors rather than a reversal of foreign policy views vis-a-vis the government in Minsk. End summary/comment. An Uptick in Contacts -------------- ¶2. (U) A range of Ukrainian and Belarusan officials have recently met, generally in a Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) context, after a period of minimal contact. According to the Ukrainian Presidential press service, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, Belarusan President Aleksandr Lukashenko, and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev met on the margins of the November 28 CIS heads of state summit in Minsk and agreed to create a working group of the three countries' ministers of economy to consider transportation of Caspian petroleum to Europe. Earlier, Prime Minister Yanukovych met with his Belarusan counterpart, Prime Minister Sergey Sidorsky, and Lukashenko during the November 24 CIS heads of government summit in Minsk. On November 23, Ukrainian Defense Minister Hrytsenko and Belarusan Defense Minister Leonid Maltsev signed a memorandum for military cooperation in 2007 in Brest, Belarus, on the margins of the CIS Defense Ministers' council. ¶3. (U) There was also a recent trilateral meeting involving Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia. New Ukrainian Interior Minister Vasily Tsushko met December 7 with his Russian and Belarusan counterparts in Minsk to discuss law enforcement cooperation. Presidential Administration Meetings -------------- ¶4. (U) Meetings between Presidential Secretariat Chief of Staff Viktor Baloha and Belarusan Presidential Administration head Gennadiy Neviglas, however, have been strictly bilateral. Neviglas first traveled to Kyiv to meet with Baloha November 30, then Baloha met with Neviglas in Minsk December 14. According to press reports, Baloha indicated that "a new agenda for Ukrainian-Belarusan relations" needed to be formed on the basis of openness and pragmatism. He also said Ukraine was ready to cooperate with Belarus to strengthen both countries' energy security. One news article implied that Baloha's meeting with Neviglas had been prompted by Yushchenko's November 28 meeting in Minsk. Both sides were planning to hold a Yushchenko-Lukashenko meeting sometime in February or March of 2007. A New Opening? -------------- ¶5. (C) When asked whether the Baloha meetings were intended to pave the way for a policy change and a major state visit, DFM Veselovskiy told us that the Ukrainian focus was on border issues. There was no plan to change Ukrainian policy toward Belarus. MFA Desk officer for Belarus Ihor Kavetski echoed Veselovskiy's comments, noting that Ukraine had two primary items on its agenda with Belarus: ratification of the Ukraine-Belarus border demarcation agreement and facilitation of workers' transit across Belarus territory from the town of Slavutych to Chornobyl. Ukrainian officials believe that they need to engage Lukashenko to obtain Belarusan cooperation on the two issues and now see an opening. Belarus was locked in contentious negotiations with Russia on KYIV 00004647 002 OF 002 gas supply arrangements and Lukashenko appears to be seeking reinforcements against Russia. In particular (during a November 23 interview with representatives of 30 Ukrainian media outlets),Lukashenko had suggested that a Ukraine-Belarus union state might be preferable to one with Russia and that Ukraine and Belarus might coordinate their gas-supply and transit negotiations with Russia. ¶6. (C) In Kavetski's view, the border agreement took second place to arrangements to facilitate transit of Chornobyl workers. The current set-up, in which some workers are required to make a lengthy detour around Belarusan territory, was costly, and would get even more costly once the Chornobyl workforce ramped up to build a new shelter over the existing Chornobyl sarcophagus. (Note: Even if existing pre-contract negotiations with the French consortium proceed as planned, actual construction would take at least a year to start, although the workforce could begin to increase in the run-up to actual construction. An agreement with Belarus might also include provisions to facilitate transfer of equipment and construction material from the customs warehouse in Slavutych across the Belarusan border.) If Minsk agreed to facilitate the worker transit, then Yushchenko could agree to meet with Lukashenko. As with previous plans, the meeting would be a low-profile event near the Ukraine-Belarus border around Chornobyl. ¶7. (C) Ukraine was also prepared to act as a mediator between Belarus and "international society," according to Kavetski (note: presumably along the lines of former Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Anatoliy Kinakh's sponsoring of a trilateral meeting with his Polish and Belarusan counterparts to ease Polish-Belarusan tensions, ref E). Nevyglas had agreed in principle to hold the presidential meeting in the proposed timeframe and so the actual details would be worked out through "diplomatic channels." Kavetski added Baloha had been scheduled to meet with Lukashenko, but the Belarusan president canceled at the last minute in order to fly to Moscow for a meeting with Russian President Putin on gas supply arrangements. ¶8. (C) Kavetski claimed not to know anything about the details of Ukrainian energy agreements with Belarus, except to note that the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy had recently signed a contract specifying the price for electricity that Ukraine would supply to Belarus. He repeated a statistic carried in media stories of Baloha's visit that Ukraine-Belarus trade turn-over was approaching U.S. $2 billion per year, and growing. The Earlier Failed Attempt -------------- ¶9. (C) Note: As reported reftels, the Ukrainian MFA tried once before to set up a Yushchenko-Lukashenko meeting along the same lines in conjunction with the April 26, 2006, 20th anniversary of the Chornobyl disaster. The earlier attempt foundered, however, due to the Belarusan government's egregious violations during the March 19 Belarusan presidential election, including detentions and arrests of Ukrainian citizens and impeding the movements of Ukrainian journalists. In ref C, MFA 2nd Territorial Department Director Andriy Ponomarenko said that, in addition to a Belarusan commitment in writing to simplify the transit arrangements, the Ukrainian government was considering pressing for a Belarusan commitment to improve the domestic political climate. Ponomarenko noted another possible condition might be the opening of a Ukrainian cultural center in Minsk (to which the Belarusan government subsequently agreed). ¶10. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. Taylor