C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 004537

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2016
TAGS: PGOV NATO UP LH
SUBJECT: UKRAINE/LITHUANIA: ADAMKUS LOBBIES FOR
EURO-ATLANTIC INTEGRATION

REF: STATE 4305

Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4(b,d)


1. (C) Summary: Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus'
three-day state visit to Ukraine -- his fourth trip here this
year -- was intended to demonstrate a willingness to work
with the new Yanukovych government, promote bilateral trade
and investment ties, and facilitate cooperation in the energy
sector. His hosting of a business forum in Donetsk
highlighted, particularly to backers of Prime Minister
Yanukovych, the opportunities enhanced trade with the West
has to offer. The primary message, however, was the
importance of NATO membership for Ukraine. In the wake of
Adamkus' visit, however, our Lithuanian Embassy interlocutor
expressed concern over Yanukovych's attitude towards
Euro-Atlantic integration. The Lithuanian Embassy DCM said
Lithuania would send former Lithuanian President Algirdas
Brazauskas -- a person well regarded by Yanukovych -- to
Ukraine to impress the advantages of Euro-Atlantic
integration on Yanukovych. End summary.

The Itinerary
--------------


2. (U) Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus arrived for a
three-day state visit to Ukraine November 14 to mark the 15th
anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations.
According to Ukrainian MFA Lithuania desk officer Khrystyna
Orlovska, his delegation included the Ministers of Defense,
Culture, and Economy. Adamkus met with President Yushchenko,
Yanukovych, parliament (Rada) speaker Oleksandr Moroz, and
briefly with opposition politician Yulia Tymoshenko. While
in Kyiv he co-chaired with Yushchenko a meeting of the
Ukraine-Lithuania Council of Presidents. After a November 15
breakfast meeting with local business leaders, Adamkus laid a
wreath at the memorial to victims of the 1932-1933 Holodomor
famine and spoke to students at a local university and then
went to Lutsk for a six-hour visit. He then traveled to
Donetsk to meet local leaders and attend a
Lithuanian-Ukrainian business forum on November 16. Adamkus
also met with local university students and opened

Lithuania's honorary consulate before returning to Vilnius.

Strong Ties, Shared History
--------------


3. (U) The two countries enjoy strong economic ties. In 2005
total trade turnover in 2005 was $476 million, of which
Lithuanian exports to Ukraine constituted $282 million and
imports, $194 million. Orlovska noted a 40 percent increase
in trade volume in the first 9 months of 2006 compared to

2005. While the foreign direct investment from Ukraine to
Lithuania is a minuscule $0.4 million, direct investment from
Lithuania to Ukraine is $45 million. While the trade and
investment figures in absolute numbers are not large, they
are respectable, given Lithuania's population of 3.5 million.



4. (U) Ukraine and Lithuania have historically strong ties,
with large parts of western Ukraine once part of the Polish
Lithuanian Commonwealth. In his speech on November 15 at
Kyiv's Taras Shevchenko University, Adamkus said the fates of
the many peoples that lived between the Baltic Sea and the
Black Sea have intertwined and intersected over the
centuries; both Lithuania and Ukraine have lived through
famine, occupation and foreign oppression. Adamkus also
remarked that Ukraine's most famous poet Shevchenko spent
part of his youth in Vilnius and Lithuanian poet Jonas
Maironis studied in Kyiv. Love of national freedom, which
was the underlying theme of both these writers, was an
expression of a shared national trait made stronger by
centuries of historical challenges.


5. (U) Lithuania "knocked on the door to the European home of
nations" after the collapse of the Soviet Union, "thumping
heavily at times," Adamkus continued, eventually entering
NATO and the EU. Both Orlovska and Lithuanian Embassy
Counselor Darius Vitkauskas suggested that Lithuania would be
supportive of Ukraine's entry into the EU and noted that
Adamkus has a particular interest in political and economic
developments here. Vitkauskas said that Adamkus has been to
Ukraine four times this year and at least 11 times since
becoming President. While in Kyiv, Adamkus publicly stated,
"Lithuania cannot imagine Europe without Ukraine."

Support for Yushchenko
--------------


6. (C) Yushchenko, Adamkus and Polish President Kaczynski,
who share a common vision of a democratic Ukraine that is a

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member of NATO and the EU, form a "troika," according to
Lithuanian MFA Under Secretary Zygimantas Pavilionis who
traveled to Ukraine with Adamkus (reftel). According to
Vitkauskas, Adamkus and Yushchenko agreed NATO membership for
Ukraine is a goal. Yushchenko thanked Adamkus for supporting
Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic aspirations and recent GUAM
initiatives, and said that Ukraine's entry into WTO would be
independent of Russia's position. Adamkus asked that more
references to NATO be inserted into the political life of
Ukraine and stressed the importance of a NATO education
program. Adamkus suggested a joint fact-finding mission to
Transnistria in the context of the Council of Presidents.
The Ukrainian MFA agreed to study the idea. The two
presidents signed a declaration that characterized the
relationship between Ukraine and Lithuania as a 'dynamic and
close partnership.' There was also an agreement to expand
cooperation between the civil services of the two countries.


7. (SBU) Vitkauskas said that Yushchenko reacted favorably to
Adamkus' suggestion that Ukraine supply electricity to
Lithuania after the Ignalina nuclear power plant closes in
2009 but noted that Belarus' cooperation would be needed.
They also discussed the possibility of reversing the flow of
the Odesa-Brody pipeline and supplying the Lithuanian oil
refinery in Mazeikiai. Yushchenko and Adamkus agreed to
establish a committee of experts to study energy cooperation.

Skepticism about Yanukovych
--------------


8. (C) The Lithuanian Embassy's Vitkauskas said Yanukovych
told Adamkus that he expects the current government to be in
power until 2011 and that he (Yanukovych) is in favor of
Yushchenko remaining as president after 2009. Yanukovych
opined that the next presidential election "could be in
parliament." His position on NATO is "more positive" than
society as a whole but he had to avoid "hurried, rash steps"
and "we cannot run in front of a train." Adamkus said, if
Ukraine wanted to join NATO, it should "speak with a clear
voice."


9. (C) In our December 1 meeting with Vitkauskas, he
expressed considerable unease about Yanukovych's intentions.
He was concerned about reports in the press after the
just-completed Yanukovych-Putin meeting that Yanukovych
spoke about a single economic space with Russia and used a
Soviet era term in Russian ("Pribaltica") to describe the
Baltic region. He was also concerned about Putin's intention
to increase the volume of Russian goods shipped through
Ukraine to Black Sea ports, presumably at the expense of
Baltic ports.


10. (C) Vitkauskas said the Lithuanian government will take
steps to convince Yanukovych that "there cannot be two
integrations," and expressed hope that a similar point will
be made to Yanukovych when he travels to Washington. He
mentioned that Lithuania would take "concrete" steps to
impress upon Yanukovych of the advantages of Euro-Atlantic
integration including bringing former Lithuanian President
and Prime Minister, Algirdas Brazauskas -- a person well
regarded by Yanukovych, to Ukraine.


11. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Gwaltney