UKRAINE: LITHUANIAN MFA U/S PAVILIONIS AND A/S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 004305 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV BO UP RS GG TU PL LH SUBJECT: UKRAINE: LITHUANIAN MFA U/S PAVILIONIS AND A/S FRIED DISCUSS REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Lithuanian MFA Under Secretary Zygimantas Pavilionis and A/S Fried discussed developments in the region and measures needed to address recent Russian assertiveness. Paviolionis said that the Lithuanian, Polish, and Ukrainian Presidents formed an effective "troika" in working together for common goals. He was pessimistic about prospects for change in Belarus, concerned about Moldovan "irrationality." A/S Fried suggested Lithuania and other Baltic states could provide useful perspective and support to Georgia, which would face years of pressure from Russia. End Summary Poland -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Pavilionis said there was excellent chemistry between Presidents Kaczynski, Adamkus, and Yushchenko, who formed a "troika." Pavilionis was optimistic about Lithuanian cooperation with Poland in the energy sector, despite Russian meddling. He complained that Russia had tried to destroy the deal to sell the Mazeikiu Nafta oil refinery to Polish firm PKN Orlen. Pavilionis looked forward to Polish cooperation in construction of a new nuclear power plant and access to a planned Polish LNG terminal. ¶3. (C) Pavilionis expressed frustration, however, by Polish positions in the EU regarding Russia. Poland was "blocking everything," while the "Russians are laughing." As Poland finds itself isolated in the EU, the Russians are accomplishing what they want through bilateral agreements with EU member states. Pavilionis said that while Vilnius was in agreement with Poland on substantive issues, it had urged Warsaw to behave more effectively, building a coalition within the EU instead of isolated blockage. ¶4. (C) Pavilionis characterized the Polish floated idea of imposing sanctions on Belarus as a manifestation of a Polish tendency to solve its internal political problems by fighting with its neighbors. He predicted that this idea would be dropped after the Polish municipal elections. Belarus -------------- ¶5. (C) Pavilionis was pessimistic about the prospects of a change in attitude on the part of the Belarusian government. He noted that there had been recent suggestions that Minsk would like Vilnius to "lead us to Europe." However the Belarusian government had not taken any steps, even symbolic, to demonstrate that they were serious. He mentioned that several Lithuanian diplomats faced criminal charges in Belarus; he was disappointed that they not been dropped. Transnistria - Moldova -------------- ¶6. (C) Pavilionis suggested that the Moldavians were so scared that they could "become irrational." Pavilionis was interested in recent Russian suggestions, recounted by A/S Fried, that they considered Transnistria the "frozen conflict" with the best prospects for a solution. Lithuania was interested in establishing a multinational peace-keeping force, possibly under the auspices of the OSCE. Pavilionis suggested a meeting on December 4 in Brussels on the margins of the OSCE Ministerial. Georgian Crisis -------------- ¶7. (C) A/S Fried told Pavilionis that the Russians were "not in a good place" vis-a-vis Georgia, that they "love a continuing crisis" but "do not want war." A/S Fried also said that Georgia needed a group of nations that would support its strategic aims as Georgia will face years of pressure from the Russians. The Baltic States had been in a similar situation in the 1990s and could provide useful advice and support to the Georgian government. Pavilionis noted that Lithuania will push for free trade between Georgia and the EU and with Turkey. Turkey -------------- ¶8. (C) A/S Fried remarked that the Turks are reluctant to challenge Russia on Georgia, but should realize that their prospects of becoming a regional energy hub would be thwarted if Georgia fell under Russian sway. Pavilionis asked how to prevent a "train wreck" between Turkey and the EU in December. A/S Fried told him that the U.S. had been approached by the Finns and was willing to work with KYIV 00004305 002 OF 002 the Turks when the time was right. Adamkus' POTUS Meeting Request -------------- ¶9. (C) Pavilionis asked about the prospects of a meeting between President Bush and Lithuanian President Adamkus when the latter visits the U.S. in February 2007. A/S Fried responded that the NSC has the request under consideration. ¶10. (U) A/S Fried has cleared this cable. ¶11. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. Taylor