UKRAINE: YUSHCHENKO, YANUKOVYCH MAKE ONE MORE TRY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 004285 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL UP SUBJECT: UKRAINE: YUSHCHENKO, YANUKOVYCH MAKE ONE MORE TRY FOR COOPERATION REF: KYIV 4251 Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4(a,b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary. The Rada's November 15 decision not to vote for now on dismissing Foreign Affairs Minister Tarasyuk and Defense Minister Hrytsenko following an 8-hour marathon meeting between President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yanukovych November 13 suggests the two sides are still making a last-ditch effort to cooperate. However, the decision by the People's Union Our Ukraine party on November 11 to move into opposition to the government and continued comments by coalition members about the removal of the last two remaining Ministers on the Our Ukraine quota from the Cabinet, underscore the deteriorating relationship between the two leaders. Remaining "orange" minister Lutsenko is also under fire. Although Our Ukraine underscored that they still supported the President and Yushchenko said that he stills wants cooperation with Yanukovych, the lack of prospects for a broad coalition make cooperation difficult. End summary and comment. The Key Test: Tarasyuk and Hrytsenko -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The most important test of where the relationship between Yushchenko and Yanukovych stands is the status of the two presidentially-nominated ministers, FM Tarasyuk and DefMin Hrytsenko. Over the November 10-12 weekend, Yanukovych had publicly called for Tarasyuk's removal and questioned Hrytsenko's integrity, claiming publicly and privately that there was evidence of significant corruption in the MOD during Hrytsenko's tenure (reftel). In response, Yushchenko said that attempts to remove Tarasyuk would "deal a significant blow" to cooperation between the Presidential Secretariat, Cabinet, and Rada. On November 15, the Rada was SIPDIS scheduled to hear mandated performance accounts by the two ministers, with many predicting a follow-on vote on their removal. Instead, the Rada deputies listened to both ministers give twenty-minute performance reviews, engaged in more than two hours of debate, and then voted to have the Committees on Foreign Affairs and National Security and Defense draft a resolution on what to do with the ministers. The resolution will be tabled in the next plenary week, November 28-December 1. ¶3. (C) The postponement could be the result of a marathon meeting between Yushchenko and Yanukovych on November 13. Sources close to Yanukovych told us November 15 that the two had met for eight hours to try to work through some of their differences. Reportedly at least half of that meeting was focused on whether they could save the five remaining "orange" ministers (including Lutsenko). Yanukovych said that he was happy to have them remain in the Cabinet, but they needed to officially withdraw their resignation requests from the Rada. Yushchenko was not sure of the political viability of this. In the Rada debate, Regions MPs and their coalition partners the Communists attacked Tarasyuk for neglecting Russia in favor of the West and railed against Hrystenko's alleged destruction of the military, but the delay in the vote suggests that Yanukovych might still order his faction not to vote against the Ministers if he finds accommodation with Yushchenko. Party Congress -------------- ¶4. (C) If Yushchenko is still seeking compromise, a number of decisions made at People's Union Our Ukraine (PUOU)'s party congress on November 11 put the presidential party at odds with the government. They voted to go into opposition to the Anti-Crisis Coalition and the Yanukovych Cabinet; to authorize the Our Ukraine Rada faction to initiate a call of no-confidence in the Yanukovych government and to form a shadow cabinet; to amend constitutional reforms; and to start negotiations with Tymoshenko's bloc on a unified opposition. All of these actions tie Yushchenko's hands to some degree, if he wants to remain head of the party and pursue cooperation with Yanukovych. "Orange Ministers" Still Could be Removed -------------- ¶5. (C) Questions about the level of cooperation remain. Many Rada observers still believe that the last two ministers officially appointed on the Our Ukraine quota--Health Minster Polyachenko and Youth, Family, and Sports Minister Pavlenko--will still be removed in the near future. In addition, OU deputies are arguing that the Cabinet cannot initiate the removal of the two presidential ministers (Tarasyuk and Hrytsenko),which could turn this into a KYIV 00004285 002 OF 002 constitutional court issue that could drag on for months. (Note: In fact, Regions Faction Leader Bohatyreva told the media in the Rada lobby November 15 after the Tarasyuk/Hrytsenko session that one reason Regions is looking for compromise is to avoid having the issue tied up in the court for months.) And the press reported November 15 that Deputy Prosecutor General Kuzmin has announced that prosecutors have uncovered evidence of corruption against Internal Affairs Minister Lutsenko. Our Ukraine Losing Key Players -------------- ¶6. (C) On a side note to the broader political games, the firm control of the "dear friends" and Bezsmertniy over PUOU has caused at least one potential leader of the future, Mykola Katerynchuk, to resign in frustration. While he has left only the party, not the OU Rada faction, his resignation could portend a growing rift in the party. Katerynchuk had called for reform within the party and a more clearly-defined opposition stance, but he was not even allowed to speak at the November 11 Congress. Katerynchuk said November 13 that the time was near for a new political force and named other up-and-comers Yatsenyuk, Stetskiv, and Lutsenko as possible collaborators. Lutsenko, the only other to publicly comment, acknowledged that this was a possibility for the future. ¶7. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. Taylor