UKRAINE: GO SLOW APPROACH POSSIBLY COMPLICATING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 004229

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2016
TAGS: PREL KDEM MARR RS AZ GG MD UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: GO SLOW APPROACH POSSIBLY COMPLICATING
GUAM'S FUTURE

REF: A. KYIV 4062


B. KIEV 3490

Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4(b,d)


1. (C) Summary. Ukraine is increasingly willing to use the
Organization for Democracy and Economic Development - GUAM as
a policy coordination vehicle, covering everything from joint
declarations by GUAM members on regional issues to economic,
military and scientific cooperation. However, Ukraine, as
the host for GUAM's new secretariat is also fumbling with the
operational steps necessary to make the regional organization
an operating concern, delaying approval of the GUAM Charter
due to domestic political considerations -- a step that could
result in delaying the scheduled opening of the GUAM
Secretariat in January 2007. Uncertainty about the attitude

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of the new government toward GUAM, especially in light of
open hostility from the Communists (a member of the ruling
coalition),means that Ukraine will probably be cautious over
the next few months as it moves to operationalize the
organization. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment. Over the past two years, the Ukrainian
government (GOU) appeared to understand better than other
GUAM members the need to establish a Secretariat in order to
be seen as a credible regional organization, especially by
the EU. The GOU had also recognized that the lack of a
permanent headquarters impeded both the operational and
financial effectiveness of the U.S.-GUAM Framework Program.
As a result, Ukraine became the primary force behind
establishing a Secretariat by providing the building, initial
funding, and carrying the pen on drafting the required
protocols. However, recent reluctance to push ahead with
approval of the GUAM Charter and concerns about raising
GUAM's profile with the new government means that we may have
to nudge the Ukrainians to stay on track if they want to
realize the goal declared in the 2005 GUAM Chisinau
Declaration - to be an organization that stands for EU
integration, democracy and free markets. End Comment.

Multilateral Coordination
--------------


3. (SBU) Over the past two years, Ukraine has used GUAM more
actively as a policy coordination vehicle and an organizing
principle for cooperation with its fellow members. In
October, apparently to sidestep the issue of whether or not
to make a statement, the Ukrainian government prompted the
adoption of a joint GUAM statement on Russia-Georgia tensions
(ref A). However, according to GUAM Information Office
Executive Director Yevgen Koziy, the Ukrainian MFA had also
issued its own criticism of Russian actions in Georgia (note:
in fact, the latest statement we found concerning the
relations between Russia and Georgia on the MFA website was
dated August 2). The Ukrainian Government has been
instrumental in the effort to create a GUAM development bank
(ref B).


4. (C) Ukraine has also tried to use GUAM to help settle
"frozen conflicts." Andriy Beshta, of the MFA's UN
directorate, told us October 24 that GUAM countries were
close to finalizing an UNGA resolution on frozen conflicts.
According to Beshta, the resolution's text is being drafted
to be consistent with the suggestions EUR DAS Kramer made to
GUAM ministers at the U.S.-GUAM bilateral on the margins of
UNGA and in a manner as non-controversial as possible in
hopes of garnering U.S. support. Beshta told us "off the
record" that he is concerned about the current tension
between Georgia and Russia and fears Ukraine could face the
same type of pressure. (We subsequently forwarded the draft
text of the UNGA resolution, received October 27, to the
Department.)


5. (SBU) There has also been Ukrainian support for closer
ties between the Science and Technology Center (STCU) and
GUAM. SCTU Executive Director Andrew Hood proposed
development of a cooperative relationship between STCU and
GUAM. Hood noted that GUAM's membership closely matches
STCU's (Uzbekistan is also a member of STCU) and shared
similar goals in the spheres of science cooperation, high
technology development, and socio-economic and regional
security enhancement. STCU could be helpful in implementing
the science and technology aspects of the GUAM Charter. The
MFA is eager to discuss the concept. (Comment. The
multilaterally-funded, including by USG, STCU is casting
about for new programs and roles now that its primary mission
of finding employment for scientists and engineers formerly
working on WMD programs is declining. Arranging this
cooperation, however, would be facilitated once GUAM
establishes a Secretariat. End Comment.)


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PKO and Military Cooperation
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6. (SBU) Koziy told us that GUAM members have been discussing
the notion of giving GUAM a peacekeeping capability, but
stressed that any peacekeeping operations would only take
place under a UN or OSCE mandate. In his view, it took five
years to develop the framework for a joint Ukrainian-Polish
battalion to participate in the NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR),
so it was likely that a similar period would likely be needed
to establish any GUAM peacekeeping force.


7. (U) In fact, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry touted the
crisis response "Rough and Ready 06" exercise with the
California Air National Guard as an example of military
cooperation among GUAM members, reinforcing perceptions that
GUAM members were working toward a joint peacekeeping
capability. The civil-military search and rescue exercise,
held in Odesa September 17-20, had 12 participants each from
Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Moldova; 180 from Ukraine; and over
60 from the U.S.

Status of the Secretariat
--------------


8. (U) Ukraine's strong support for GUAM has translated into
its strong support for the establishment of a permanent
secretariat. According to Koziy, renovation of the 1,000

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square meter premises in downtown Kyiv that will house the
GUAM Secretariat should be finished in early 2007.
Completion of the premises had received an additional push
because of President Yushchenko's personal interest in the
project. Even if the building is not completed on schedule,
Koziy suggested that the GUAM Secretariat staff could operate
temporarily in the existing GUAM Information Office premises
in the Shevchenko University International Relations
Institute. He said there would be a meeting of National
Coordinators on November 27 or 28 in Tblisi and a Ministerial
meeting on December 4 or 5 in Brussels to approve the final
documents required to establish the Secretariat formally.


9. (SBU) When asked if the Ministry of Interior (MoI) would
assume responsibility for the Virtual Law Enforcement Center
(VLEC) from the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) -- an
arrangement that would be more in keeping with EU law
enforcement norms -- Koziy replied that, while MFA was in
favor of MoI control, the current arrangement could not be
changed because of legal restrictions. Robert Peacock,
coordinator for the Euro-Atlantic Advisory Team in Kyiv,
noted the location of Ukraine's VLEC in the SBU headquarters
building has a tendency to inhibit its use by other agencies.


Operational Snafus and Political Complications
-------------- -


10. (C) Ukraine, however, is fumbling with the operational
steps necessary to make the regional organization an
operating reality. Concern about raising GUAM's profile has
led the Government to delay seeking Rada approval of the
documents needed to make GUAM a functioning entity. And with
Rada consideration of the GUAM Charter delayed due to
domestic political considerations, the GUAM Secretariat is
unlikely to open in January 2007 as planned. (Embassy note:
The Communist Party is already a vocal opponent of GUAM. And
since a vote on the GUAM charter has the potential to split
the ruling coalition, something that has not yet happened in
the Rada, the MFA is delaying consideration of the bill until
other controversial issues are voted upon.)


11. (C) In an October 27 meeting with Ambassador and
PolCouns, Ukrainian DFM Andriy Veselovskiy said the GUAM
Charter had not been put to a vote in the parliament (Rada)
because parties in the ruling coalition, namely the
Communists and the Socialists, who were opposed to Ukraine's
entry into NATO could view a strengthened GUAM as a NATO
"Trojan horse." The MFA said that the coalition's leading
Party of Regions might choose to vote against the GUAM
charter rather than split the ruling coalition. Thus,
Veselovskiy preferred to delay the vote until another issue
was considered, i.e. WTO-related legislation, that was
contentious for the ruling coalition with the hope that a
vote on GUAM would not become a test-case for the coalition's
unity.


12. (C) During an October 30 meeting, Georgian Embassy Senior
Counselor Levan Nizharadze told us that he was worried about
the prospects of getting the GUAM Charter approved by the
Rada in time for the Secretariat to open as planned. He said
that the Party of Regions government may be tempted to slow
GUAM progress in an effort to gain leverage with the

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Russians, and feels that the Ukrainians will need a "nudge"
from the U.S. to keep GUAM on track. Nizharadze does not
think that the Secretariat can function without an approved
charter since the organization would be unable to approve a
budget.


13. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor