KUWAITIS TELL NEA PDAS JEFFREY INCREASED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 004625 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS FOR NEA/ARP AND NEA/IR AND A/S WELCH E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2016 TAGS: PREL IZ IR KU KUWAIT IRAN RELATIONS KUWAIT-IRAQ RELATIONS SUBJECT: KUWAITIS TELL NEA PDAS JEFFREY INCREASED COOPERATION AND CONSULTATION ARE KEYS TO CONFRONTING IRAN Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C/NF) Summary: During his December 9 visit to Kuwait, PDAS Jeffrey met with a number of prominent Kuwaitis to discuss Iraq and Iran. The Kuwaitis expressed concern about rising Iranian influence in the region and emphasized the need for international cooperation. They agreed that the GCC should play a more active role in Iraq and in confronting Iran, but differed as to what approach would be most effective. The Kuwaitis repeatedly stressed the need for the U.S. to coordinate with its Arab allies on regional policies and, equally as important, make clear to Arab publics that the U.S. was listening to Arab leaders' advice rather than dictating its own, unilateral policies to them. Former GCC Secretary General Abdullah Bishara characterized regional SIPDIS tensions as a conflict between the forces of moderation - Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the GCC, the Lebanese government, Mahmoud Abbas - and the forces of extremism. End summary. ¶2. (C/NF) During a December 9 visit to Kuwait, PDAS James Jeffery met with former GCC Secretary General Abdullah Bishara; Ambassador Khaled Al-Babtain, the outgoing Director of the Americas Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; MP Mohammed Jassem Al-Sager, the head of Parliament's Foreign Relations Committee; and leaders of the Islamic Constitutional Movement (ICM),the political arm of the Kuwaiti Muslim Brotherhood. He also participated in a roundtable lunch discussion with five prominent Kuwaiti intellectuals and academics. The major theme of the visit was that Iran presents a grave danger to the region and that coordinated action on the part of the international community is the only way to effectively deal with the Iranian threat. International Cooperation is Key to Confronting Iran -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C/NF) Al-Babtain and Bishara agreed that Kuwait could act as a useful conduit to the Iranian regime. Bishara cited strong, unified international cooperation as the key to successfully confronting Iran. He questioned the effectiveness of the IAEA in exposing Iran's lies and called the EU "toothless and flabby-bellied." He also criticized the weakness and disunity of the GCC. Bishara said he favored the GCC coming out with a strong statement that Iran is a threat and sending an envoy to Iran to state that the GCC supports the Security Council, the IAEA, and Europe. He expressed pessimism about GCC unity, however, noting that Qatar is more worried about Saudi Arabia than Iran and that Oman does not share Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain's fears about Iranian power and intentions. ¶4. (C/NF) Bishara also criticized NATO, saying that it had not broken out of its Cold War mentality and realized the importance of "oil politics." It is time, he said, for NATO to take an active role in securing the stability of the Gulf. Finally, Bishara said he favors a strong Security Council resolution against Iran but emphasized the importance of a public relations campaign to convince Gulf Arabs that it would not have negative effects on GCC countries. Al-Babtain said the key to American success vis-a-vis Iran was coordinating with the Arab world on finding a solution to Iraq's instability. Such coordination would show Iran that the U.S. is not alone and this would "scare" Iran. Kuwait Strategy towards Iran: Confrontation vs. Conversation -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C/NF) Bishara criticized Kuwait's Foreign Minister for publicly focusing on the environmental dangers of Iran's nuclear program rather than the security dimensions of the threat. Kuwait, argued Bishara, should publicly state its private analysis that Iran poses a major security threat to the Gulf. Meanwhile, Al-Babtain said that following Bishara's advice would cause Kuwait to lose the significant access it now has to the Iranian government. He argued that the Iranians know what the Kuwaitis mean when they talk about the environment, and that GOK officials are very frank in bilateral meetings with Iran. If Kuwait confronted Iran publicly, the U.S. would lose a valuable means of dialogue with the Iranians. Bishara supported the idea of Shaykh Sabah visiting Iran because, he said, no other Gulf leader could convey the right message to the Iranian leadership. ¶6. (C/NF) Bishara and Al-Babtain agreed that Kuwait had an important role to play as a mediator in the GCC between Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Bishara said that Kuwait had been given this mandate at the GCC Consultative meeting in May. He added that Amir Shaykh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah was taking an KUWAIT 00004625 002 OF 003 active role in bridging differences but without much result. How to Fix Iraq: Coordinate with Regional Allies -------------- --- ¶7. (C/NF) Al-Babtain expressed the need for the U.S. to coordinate its efforts with the Arab world, and especially the Gulf, in the strongest terms. He stressed repeatedly that the U.S. has made decisions regarding Iraq and Iran by itself and then imposed them on the countries in the region. This has led to many mistakes that could have been avoided by consulting with regional allies who understand the region better than the U.S. does. He added that the very perception that the U.S. dictates policy to its allies stymies its efforts. ¶8. (C/NF) Al-Babtain suggested forming a joint committee of Americans and Gulf Arabs that would come up with policy recommendations for Iraq. He said that the committee's recommendations could be vetted by participating governments behind the scenes but in public the committee would appear as an independent body. If the U.S. were to then act on these recommendations it would signal an Arab-U.S. alliance on Iraq. ¶9. (C/NF) National Assembly Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Al-Sager criticized the U.S. for its lack of coordination with the neighboring countries as well. This lack of coordination, he said, had led to decisions like dissolving the army and opening the borders to let 200,000 Iranians enter Baghdad and change it from a Sunni to a Shi'a city. Al-Sager recently returned from a business trip to Iraq to deal with his family's vast date farms near Basra. He saw many pictures of Khomeini and said he felt that Iran was in control. He views Iraq as a chaotic place that needs to be controlled by force. As he put it, "Iraq needed freedom, not democracy," and urged the U.S. to increase its troop levels in Iraq. ¶10. (C/NF) The five prominent Kuwaiti intellectuals attending a roundtable lunch with PDAS Jeffrey echoed these views. Former Minister of Information Dr. Saad bin Teflah stressed that the GCC should not be excluded from any potential U.S.-Iranian or U.S.-Syrian negotiations, arguing that this would strengthen Iran and Syria at the expense of the GCC. The Kuwaitis urged the U.S. to consider the GCC as a "serious partner" and argued that the GCC could and should play a more active role in Iraq, particularly by funding economic development and promoting investment. Dr. Sami Al-Faraj, the Director of the Kuwait Center for Strategic Studies and an advisor to the GCC Secretary General, said the U.S. should rely more on the GCC's economic strength and noted that GCC investment in southern Iraq in particular could serve as a balance to Iranian influence there. General Ali Al-Mumin (Ret.),Kuwait's Ambassador-designate to Iraq and a Shi'a, agreed on the need for more GCC investment in Iraq, though he emphasized that it should not just be focused on southern Iraq. He said Iraqis received Iranian aid "with suspicion" and would welcome more assistance from GCC countries. Al-Mumin added that ongoing security problems were not a valid excuse for low levels of aid project execution since other countries were active in Iraq. Former State Minister for Foreign Affairs Sulaiman Majed Al-Shaheen emphasized that the people in the Gulf need to be reassured that a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq does not mean it is withdrawing from the region. Iran and Iraq's Wider Regional Effect -------------- ¶11. (C/NF) Bishara characterized the Middle East as in the throes of a region-wide battle. The battle is not between Shi'a and Sunni, but rather between the forces of moderation (the GCC, Egypt, Jordan, Fouad Siniora's government in Lebanon, and Mahmoud Abbas) and those of extremism (Iran, Hizballah, Syria, Hamas, and, albeit less menacingly, Yemen). The battlegrounds are Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq. Bishara said that Hassan Nasrallah had passed the point of no return with Siniora by accusing him of collusion with Israel, a claim which precluded any reconciliation. He called on the U.S. and EU to make strong public statements supporting Siniora's government, the fall of which he said would be a major blow to the forces of moderation. ¶12. (C/NF) Al-Sager echoed Bishara's concern about Lebanon, calling Hezbollah a poison and recounting how Saddam Hussein and Michel Aoun had both told him personally that Saddam had armed Aoun in the 1980s. Al-Babtain focused more on the KUWAIT 00004625 003 OF 003 Palestinian issue, suggesting that Iran was using it to its advantage. For Al-Babtain, a key step toward U.S. success in the Middle East is helping Mahmoud Abbas' government. If Abbas cannot show any gains from his moderate stance, Al-Babtain argued, he will only lose power. ¶13. (C/NF) Bishara characterized a fragile balance of power in the Gulf that was maintained by the Arab Gulf States' soft power (i.e. the internal stability provided by their legitimacy) and external hard power (the British until the 1960s and the Americans since the 1990s). The vacuum of hard power in the 1980s led to war, and Iranian nuclear power would pose an unprecedented challenge to the regional order. ¶14. (U) This cable was sent after PDAS Jeffrey departed from Post. ********************************************* * For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s Visit Kuwait's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ ********************************************* * LEBARON