IRAQ DEBT FORGIVENESS: "A BLOODY, UPHILL BATTLE"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 004438 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE PASS TO USAID, NEA/ARP FOR JACKSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2011 TAGS: EAID ECON EFIN IZ KU SUBJECT: IRAQ DEBT FORGIVENESS: "A BLOODY, UPHILL BATTLE" REF: A. KUWAIT 4311 ¶B. KUWAIT 4119 Classified By: Economic Counselor Timothy Lenderking for Reasons 1.4 (b ) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Director General of the Arab Fund expressed pessimism November 12 about the prospects for Iraq debt forgiveness on the part of the GOK. He said there was virtually no public support for the measure in Kuwait, and he did not believe the senior Kuwaiti leadership, especially the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, were willing to expend the political capital necessary to ride the issue through a resistant and highly politicized National Assembly. The only glimmer of hope, he said, was for Kuwait to make a "goodwill" gesture to Iraq, but this would be more modest than writing off Iraqi debt. In terms of ending Iraq's suspension from the Arab Fund due to arrears, Al-Hamad said the GOI owed the Fund an answer on the terms of repayment negotiated with the GOI Planning Minister on the margins of the October 31 Iraq Compact meeting, but in the meantime Al-Hamad was taking steps to gain approval from the Fund's governing board should the GOI follow through. Al-Hamad commented briefly on aid to the Palestinians, saying Abu Mazen was one of the few bright lights on the Palestinian political scene and needed international support, but Al-Hamad expressed disgust with Hamas and the remaining Palestinian leadership for squandering opportunities to improve the lives of the Palestinian people. He said the U.S. missed a major opportunity to send a positive signal to the Arab world in vetoing the latest UNSCR condemning violence in Gaza; steps like these come back to haunt the U.S., he argued, when the U.S. seeks support in the Arab world on other issues, such as Iraqi debt. Al-Hamad said he would travel to London this week to attend the donors Conference on Yemen. End Summary. Forgiving Iraqi Debt -------------- ¶2. (C) During a November 12 meeting to follow up on issues discussed with Treasury Deputy Secretary Kimmitt on the margins of the Iraq Compact (Ref A),Abdelatif Al-Hamad, Director General of the Arab Fund, told Econcouns that the chance of Kuwait forgiving Iraqi debt any time in the near future was extremely low. (Note: Kuwait claims $17 billion in debt owed from loans made to Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War, the largest of any country. The exact amount is not known, and the claims come from various government ministries and agencies, with no single ministry taking responsibility for all debt claims. End Note). He said there were several reasons for this: first, Kuwaitis have not forgotten Iraq's occupation of Kuwait. Not only did Iraq invade Kuwait in 1990, but even during the Iran-Iraq War when Kuwait was making huge loans to support Iraq (note: Al-Hamad was Kuwait's Finance Minister from 1981-1983),the Iraqis' attitude toward Kuwait was, "Where's the money?" The Iraqis had no understanding of the need for laws, parliamentary action, and transparent institutions, he said. Second, Kuwaiti citizens want to see the GOK reduce their own debt prior to that of the Iraqis. When the Kuwait Investment Authority drew down its Future Reserves Fund to finance Kuwait reconstruction after the first Gulf War, a debt was incurred, and "that debt must be repaid" to maintain the credibility and transparency of Kuwaiti financial institutions. Given the sensitivity of the Iraq issue among the Kuwaiti public, Al-Hamad said the senior Kuwaiti leadership -- namely, the Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister -- would have to do considerable heavy lifting to push debt forgiveness through a very reluctant National Assembly, and the relationship between the senior leadership and the National Assembly is "not that strong." "I am not saying the door is totally locked," Al-Hamad said, "but getting in would be a bloody, uphill battle." U.S. support for the issue would also not be popular in Kuwait, he predicted. ¶3. (C) That said, Al-Hamad stated that Kuwaitis recognize the strategic importance of Iraq and understand the importance of creating good will with Iraq. Kuwait could and probably should consider a "goodwill gesture" toward Iraq, but Al-Hamad said writing off the entire debt was more than he could foresee at present. Reinstating Iraq in the Arab Fund -------------- ¶4. (C) Al-Hamad said he had not heard back from the GOI since his late October meeting with Iraqi Planning Minister Baban concerning a repayment plan to pay down Iraq's arrears KUWAIT 00004438 002 OF 002 to the Fund (and thereby lift Iraq's suspension and open up possibilities for additional Arab Fund assistance). He had given Baban and his delegation a one-page memorandum outlining the terms of the repayment, and now the ball was in Iraq's court to respond. In the meantime, Al-Hamad said he was working with the Arab Fund's governing board to gain approval to proceed once he heard back from the GOI. He expected a decision at the Fund's December 22 board meeting. Iraq Compact -------------- ¶5. (C) Al-Hamad said he had not received any communication from the UN concerning the October 31 Iraq Compact meeting, either a revised draft compact document to review or an invitation to future ICI events. He reiterated the difficulty of being able to attend events he hears about only at the last minute. Disgusted with the Palestinians, Disappointed with U.S. Veto -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Turning to Arab Fund assistance to the Palestinians, Al-Hamad noted that the Fund continued to provide 10% of its annual revenues to the Palestinians, or about USD 50-60 million per year. The money goes only to the recipients, he said, not to the government or Hamas. He was despondent that the Fund's assistance seemed to have done so little to ameliorate the living conditions of ordinary Palestinians, due in part to terrible leadership on the part of both Fatah and Hamas. Abu Mazen was one of the only bright lights among the leadership and deserved continued international support. Israeli actions and U.S. acquiescence exacerbated the problem, he said. The best project funded by the Arab Fund, he thought, was support to Palestinian universities, which aimed at keeping 100,000 students in school, off the streets, and away from extremists. Al-Hamad added he was particularly disappointed the U.S. had vetoed the latest UN resolution condemning the recent violence in Gaza. "These decisions come back to haunt the U.S.," Al-Hamad said, when the U.S. seeks support from the Arab world for its priorities, including on issues such as Iraqi debt. With the veto, the U.S. missed an opportunity to send a very positive signal to the Arab world, he said. Yemen Donors Conference -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Al-Hamad confirmed he would travel to London for the November 15 donors conference on Yemen. We have heard the DG of the Kuwait Fund will also attend, along with senior GOK officials. ********************************************* * For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s Visit Kuwait's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ ********************************************* LeBaron