SENIOR SCIRI LEADER AMMAR AL-HAKIM VISITS KUWAIT,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 004076 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/I AND NEA/ARP E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR IZ KU KUWAIT IRAQ RELATIONS SUBJECT: SENIOR SCIRI LEADER AMMAR AL-HAKIM VISITS KUWAIT, PROMOTES FEDERALISM IN IRAQ REF: A. KUWAIT 4071 ¶B. KUWAIT 678 Classified By: CDA Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C/NF) Summary and comment: Ammar Al-Hakim, the son of SCIRI leader Abdulaziz Al-Hakim and a top SCIRI leader himself, arrived in Kuwait October 8 for meetings with the Amir, Prime Minister, Foreign Minister, and other Kuwaiti government officials. Al-Hakim likely tried to assuage Kuwaiti fears regarding an autonomous Shi'a super-region, a development some Kuwaitis have viewed with apprehension. According to Dr. Abdullah Sahar, a Shi'a political science professor at Kuwait University, the Al-Hakims have been invited to Kuwait during Ramadan for the last 17 years. Sahar said the ruling family has "good relations" with "most" of the Shi'a clergy in Iraq, as evidenced by Kuwait's $10 million donation for the rebuilding of the Shi'a shrine in Samarra after its destruction by terrorists in February. He believed Al-Hakim's argument for federalism would be well-received in Kuwait, which Sahar said stood to benefit from Iraq being divided into smaller, weaker states. Ultimately, Kuwait would prefer a Shi'a-dominated democracy to any form of dictatorship in Iraq, he concluded. ¶2. (C/NF) Comment: As Sahar suggested, many Kuwaitis are relatively unconcerned about the potential emergence of a largely autonomous Shi'a region in southern Iraq. The notable exceptions are among Salafi Islamists and Kuwait's military and security services, where there is considerable apprehension about Shi'a intentions and Iranian influence in southern Iraq. However, there are some signs that overall the Kuwaiti government is more prepared to accept and work with a strong, Shi'a-led government in Iraq than they have been in the past, in part as a response to rising concerns about Iranian influence in the region (ref B). End summary and comment. Ammar Al-Hakim's Visit to Kuwait -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Ammar Abdulaziz Al-Hakim, the son of Abdulaziz Al-Hakim, the head of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI),and the Secretary General of the Iraqi Shaheed Al-Mirhab Islamic Institute arrived in Kuwait October 8 for meetings with the Kuwaiti leadership. His meetings have included Amir Shaykh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah, Prime Minister Shaykh Nasser Mohammed Al-Sabah, Foreign Minister Shyakh Dr. Mohammed Al-Sabah, and State Minister for Amiri Diwan Affairs Shaykh Nasser Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah. After meeting with the Amir, Al-Hakim told reporters that the adoption of a federalist system in Iraq was the best solution to the country's current problems. ¶4. (SBU) At an October 10 reception hosted by the Kuwait Journalists' Association, Al-Hakim said "Iraq respects Kuwait's sovereignty and recognizes its independence" and criticized Saddam-era Iraqi curricula that refer to Kuwait as a province of Iraq. He expressed optimism for stability in Iraq, noting that Iraq's political parties and tribes were meeting together, something very difficult in the months after Saddam's fall. Al-Hakim said Iraq must become "a unified, federal state" and stressed the importance of "disarming the militia." He concluded by encouraging investment in Iraq, which he argued would contribute to the country's stability. Al-Hakim also visited the diwaniyas (traditional salons) of Jawad Bukhamseen, a prominent Shi'a businessman; Sayed Mohammed Baqer Al-Mohri, a leading Kuwaiti Shi'a cleric; and MP Dr. Nasser Al-Sane, the Assistant Secretary General of the Islamic Constitutional Movement SIPDIS (ICM),the political arm of the Kuwaiti Muslim Brotherhood. He last visited Kuwait in April. Historically Good Relations with Iraqi Shi'a Clergy -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C/NF) According to Dr. Abdullah Sahar, a Shi'a political science professor at Kuwait University who follows Shi'a-Sunni relations in Kuwait, the Amir has invited the leaders of the Al-Hakim family to spend the last 10 days of Ramadan in Kuwait annually for the last 17 years. In previous years, Mohammed Baqer Al-Hakim and Abdulaziz Al-Hakim have gone, but due to Mohammed's assassination in 2003 and Abdulaziz's political preoccupations, for the last two years Ammar has visited instead. Sahar, who met with Ammar during his visit to Kuwait last year, described him as "a very nice guy who tries to play a moderate role." He added that the Kuwaiti leadership views him as "a promising leader." Sahar claimed the Al-Sabah family has good KUWAIT 00004076 002 OF 002 relations with "most" of the Shi'a clergy in Iraq, based largely on historical ties. He cited as an example Ammar's grandfather, Ayatollah Muhsin Al-Hakim's fatwa (religious edict) forbidding former Iraqi Prime Minister Abdul Karim Qassim from invading Kuwait in the late 1950s. Likewise, Iraqi Shi'a clergy have "no problem" with Kuwait and respect the Kuwaiti leadership, Sahar claimed, noting the Kuwaiti government's $10 million donation to restore the Shi'a shrine in Samarra, Iraq, which was almost completely destroyed in a terrorist attack in February (reftel). The Benefits of "Federalism" -------------- ¶6. (C/NF) Sahar believed Ammar Al-Hakim's argument for "federalism" in Iraq would be well-received in Kuwait. Federalism has to be sold to neighboring countries and Kuwait is an easy place to start, Sahar argued, explaining that due to the Iraqi invasion in 1990, Kuwait was the only Arab country that did not see the Iraqi government through a sectarian lens. "Officially, the GOK does not support federalism (in Iraq),but in reality the division of Iraq into smaller states would benefit Kuwait" for two reasons: 1) by making them weaker and less of a threat, and 2) due to the historically good relations between Kuwait's leaders and the Shi'a clergy in Iraq, he said. Sahar noted that, after all, all the Iraqi leaders who have or planned to invade Kuwait were Sunni. The Kuwaiti leadership has always viewed dictatorship in Iraq to be a greater threat than sectarianism and would prefer a democratic government dominated by the Shi'a to any form of dictatorship, he concluded. ********************************************* * For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s Visit Kuwait's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ ********************************************* * Tueller