C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 004071

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/IR AND NEA/ARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR KU KUWAIT IRAN RELATIONS
SUBJECT: GCC ADVISOR: VISIT TO ISFAHAN NUCLEAR FACILITY
CONFIRMS SUSPICIONS; GCC MORE AWARE OF IRANIAN THREAT

REF: A. KUWAIT 3618

B. KUWAIT 1346

C. KUWAIT 677

Classified By: CDA Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C/NF) Summary: In an October 9 meeting with PolChief,
Advisor to the GCC Secretary General Dr. Sami Al-Faraj shared
his impressions of a two-day conference sponsored by the
Expediency Council he attended in April that included a visit
to the Isfahan nuclear facility. Al-Faraj, who regularly
travels to Iran, noted the large number of military personnel
in Tehran and particularly at the Isfahan nuclear facility,
which left the conference participants doubting the facility
was being used solely for peaceful purposes. Speakers at the
conference, including Rafsanjani and Larijani, blamed
problems in the region on the presence of foreign troops.
Notably absent was any mention of the GCC, Egypt, or Jordan
in discussions on regional issues. Al-Faraj also commented
on the GCC's reaction to regional developments. He said the
recent Israel-Hizballah conflict crystallized GCC countries'
awareness of the seriousness of the Iranian threat and
strengthened their commitment to providing economic
assistance to Iraq to counter Iranian influence there.
Initially wary, GCC countries are increasingly accepting of a
Shi'a government in Iraq and have been reassured by senior
Iraqi Shi'a clerics' calls for moderation and calm, he
concluded. End summary.

Read Out of Visit to Iran
--------------


2. (C/NF) PolChief met October 9 with Dr. Sami Al-Faraj, an
advisor to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretary
General and the founder and director of the Kuwait Center for
Strategic Studies (KCSS), a private strategic research and
consulting firm. In April, Al-Faraj attended a two-day
conference in Iran sponsored by the Expediency Council and
organized by the Pugwash Conferences of Science and World
Affairs, a Nobel Prize-winning NGO opposed to nuclear
weapons, along with approximately 30 other participants from
around the regio

n, including several Indian and Iraqi nuclear
scientists. The first day featured lectures by more than 30
leading Iranian officials, including former president
Rafsanjani and Ali Larijani, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator.



3. (C/NF) Al-Faraj said there was some "slight" difference
in the views presented -- for example, Rafsanjani tried to
take credit for Iran's nuclear program -- but all the
speakers blamed the region's problems on the presence of
foreign troops, a view he said was "completely at odds" with
that of Gulf countries. Al-Faraj said "pragmatists" like
Rafsanjani and Larijani presented stronger arguments than
more hard-line speakers, while military and intelligence
officials tended to contradict themselves. He cited an
example of one intelligence official who claimed Iran had no
presence in Iraq, but later said with assurance that there
were 41 Sunni terrorists groups in Iraq.


4. (C/NF) Al-Faraj said the speakers' arguments all seemed
to be based on some fundamental, unquestioned assumptions,
such as that any U.S. attack on Iran would be of a limited
nature against the country's nuclear facilities, and that
Iran would take its nuclear program "underground." Al-Faraj
was also struck by the speakers' complete silence on the
Gulf. He said Iranian officials only talked about the U.S.,
Britain, and Iraq when discussing the region; the GCC, Egypt,
and Jordan were never mentioned. When visiting Abu Dhabi
days after the conference, Larijani delivered a very
different message to GCC countries, Al-Faraj claimed.


5. (C/NF) On the last day of the conference, the group was
taken on an unannounced visit to the Isfahan nuclear
facility. Accompanying them were military personnel, who
radioed ahead to block traffic on the roads and intersections
they passed through. Al-Faraj said there was a "strong"
military presence at the facility, leaving the conference
participants convinced that the facility had some sort of
military function. Al-Faraj, who visits Iran several times a
year, was surprised by the lack of Basij and IRGC forces on
the streets, despite a media report the week before he left
saying these forces were cracking down on dress code
violators, something he saw no evidence to support.

Growing Awareness of Iranian Threat, But Still Unprepared
-------------- --------------


6. (C/NF) Prior to the recent Israel-Hizballah conflict, GCC

KUWAIT 00004071 002 OF 002


countries were reluctant to confront Iran over its nuclear
program or policies in the region, Al-Faraj said. Now, there
is an increasing awareness that something must be done --
"politically, strategically, economically, or militarily" --
to contain Iran regionally, or, as he put it, to "clip the
claws of the lion." According to Al-Faraj, this awareness
had been growing since the beginning of the year, but
crystallized with the conflict in Lebanon. Kuwait became
more fully aware of the threat from Iran during Ahmadinejad's
visit in February (ref C), he said. The Kuwaiti leadership
wanted to know if Ahmadinejad was really serious and were
convinced in their meetings with him that he was "seriously
crazy," Al-Faraj claimed. He noted that the afternoon
Ahmadinejad left Kuwait, the Amir instructed Kuwait's
emergency services agencies to begin emergency/disaster
planning preparations (ref B). (Note: Al-Faraj later
provided some consulting on this planning process. End note.)


7. (C/NF) Despite this increased awareness, Al-Faraj
believed Kuwait was "woefully unprepared" to deal with the
threat from Iran. (Comment: Al-Faraj describes himself as a
pessimist and admits that he generally presents the
"worst-case scenario," which is likely reflected in his
analysis. End comment.) He was "absolutely certain that
Iranian intelligence forces have the capacity to strike
exposed targets in Kuwait," and said Kuwait lacked the
resources to deal with large-scale demonstrations of the
"80,000" Iranian expatriate workers in Kuwait. (Comment:
Other contacts, including Iranian expats, estimate the
Iranian population in Kuwait to be between fifty and sixty
thousand. It is unlikely that this community, the majority
of whom are manual laborers, would participate in pro-Iran
demonstrations if tensions escalate. End comment.) He
"(did) not believe the GCC has the capability to effectively
police a sanctions area." Al-Faraj claimed there was a "lack
of seriousness" about the Iranian threat among some senior
Kuwaiti ministerial officials, who were hesitant to pursue
contingency planning in the hope that the problem would
resolve itself. Al-Faraj dismissed reports that Kuwait has
drafted a Non-Aggression Agreement with Iran (ref A) as
"nonsense."


8. (C/NF) Despite the convergence of views on Iran, Al-Faraj
complained about GCC countries' lack of strategic vision and
noted that the GCC position on Iran was often contradictory.
For example, while the GCC supports a peaceful resolution to
tensions over Iran's nuclear program, Gulf countries oppose
the P5 1 incentive package, not wanting Iran to have these
benefits, he claimed. In addition, Al-Faraj said some
smaller GCC countries are concerned that Iran will be
weakened too much, leaving Saudi Arabia in a stronger
position in the Gulf. "While government officials in GCC
countries will not yet admit it, there is a growing awareness
that they will ultimately have to choose between a nuclear
Iran and a non-nuclear Iran, between Iran and the U.S. There
is no question what they will choose: they would sell Iran in
a heartbeat. Ultimately, your objectives and ours are the
same," he concluded.

GCC Can and Should Play Stronger Role in Iraq
--------------


9. (C/NF) Al-Faraj said the Lebanon conflict also increased
GCC countries' "seriousness" about providing economic
assistance to Iraq to counter Iranian influence there. He
believed the GCC could play a much more constructive role in
Iraq's economic development, which would consequently
increase the GCC's clout and influence in the country.
According to him, Gulf states were initially wary of a
Shi'a-dominated government, but have been reassured by senior
Iraqi Shi'a clerics' calls for calm and moderation, and have
slowly acquiesced to the idea of a Shi'a-led Iraq. GCC
countries can always appeal to Iraqis' Arab identity to draw
them away from Iran, Al-Faraj said.

********************************************* *
For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s

Visit Kuwait's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/
********************************************* *
Tueller