FREEDOM AGENDA: EMBASSY ANALYSIS OF ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 002774 SIPDIS SIPDIS NOFORN FOR NEA/ARP E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KU FREEDOM AGENDA SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA: EMBASSY ANALYSIS OF ELECTION RETURNS SHOWS 60 PERCENT OF REGISTERED WOMEN VOTED REF: A. KUWAIT 2602 ¶B. KUWAIT 2600 Classified By: CDA Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C/NF) Summary and Comment: Kuwaiti news media reported that only 35% of eligible women voted in the June 29 Parliamentary elections. Post's statistical analysis puts the number at approximately 60%. Although Islamists made gains in the National Assembly, a close look at the voting numbers shows that women defied expectations that they would vote in a more pro-Islamist way. In some districts they displayed a more liberal leaning. And even where their voting helped Islamist candidates, it is not clear whether these were votes for Islamism or votes for reform, since the Islamists favor reforming Kuwait's electoral districts. The election results could be used to support the theory that women voted according to their male relatives' wishes, though alternative explanations could also explain the similarity in men's and women's voting. Only a qualitative study of voters' behavior could lend any weight to this theory. Election statistics confirm that the size of the current electoral districts opens the possibility of electoral corruption, though the extent to which this happened is not known. End Summary and Comment. Women's Participation Underreported -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Kuwaiti media sources reported, presumably based on information from government sources, that 35% of women participated in the June 29 parliamentary elections. Post reported this figure in reftels, but noted that its onsite observations suggested that 35% was too low. Several Kuwaiti Arabic dailies subsequently printed detailed tables of the voting, broken down by polling station. Since polling stations were gender-segregated, the numbers give exact results as to how many men and women voted. Post performed a data analysis of the information as published and found that the original figure of 35% grossly underreported the number of women who voted. (Note: the numbers contained minor inconsistencies, but give an accurate general picture. End Note.) The 194,910 women who were registered to vote cast 199,373 votes. Each voter can vote for up to two candidates. Assuming that each woman voted for two candidates, this would put participation at 51%. ¶3. (C/NF) A significant number of voters only vote for one candidate if they do not want to give any of his or her competitors votes, and some women cast empty ballots either in protest or in error. Figures on the numbers who voted for fewer than two candidates have only been made available for several districts. In district 1, 14% of people voted this way, while in district 4, the only district where a higher percentage of women than men voted, 28% of people voted for only one candidate. District 9 is the only district where these figures were made available for women and men. 22.7% of women in this district voted for only one candidate, raising the women's participation figures from 61.7% if we assume every voter voted twice to 69.6%. Statistics on empty ballots are insufficient to measure their effect. But overall, it is reasonable to assume that women's participation statistics will be 6 - 10% higher than the 51.1% mentioned above. Post's analysis, albeit based on unofficial numbers, is that just under 60% of eligible women voters cast ballots. Kuwait University Professor Jassem Karam, who is Kuwait's foremost expert on the electoral districts, independently arrived at the conclusion that 58% of women voted. Karam told Poloff that he did not understand why the lower figure had been previously reported. Karam noted that he and Professor Shamlan Al-Eissa have begun a major study to analyze Kuwaitis' voting behavior in these elections. They expect to publish the results early in 2007. Karam also noted that full and accurate statistics should be available within a month. Women Did Not Vote Heavily for Islamists -------------- ¶4. (C/NF) Many Kuwaitis predicted that women's participation would actually help Islamist candidates. A cursory look at the election results might support that conclusion since Islamists increased their representation in the National Assembly by approximately 10%, depending how one classifies the new MPs. A closer look reveals that women did not vote more conservatively than men overall. For instance, in district 7, a bastion of Islamism, voters re-elected the two Islamist incumbents. Women voted slightly more liberally KUWAIT 00002774 002 OF 003 than men. Adel Al-Sarawi, who had barely beaten ex-soccer star Abdullah Al-Ma'youf in 2003 for second place, came in first with 34.7% of the male vote and 33.4% of the female vote. Ultra-conservative Waleed Al-Tabtabaei slipped to second this year with 30.4% of the male vote and 29.6% of the female vote. Al-Ma'youf, a pro-Government candidate, won 21.6% of the male vote and 21.2% of the female vote. Meanwhile, Aisha Al-Rushaid, an outspoken liberal and the only woman running in the district, got 2.5% of the male vote and 4.8% of the female vote. In district 5, liberal women's rights advocate Ali Al-Rashed came in first, taking 25.3% of the women's vote and 22.9% of the men's vote, while Salafi Islamist Ahmad Baqer garnered 19.3% of the women's vote and 20.1% of the men's. ¶5. (C/NF) Women helped Islamists in some districts. In district 18, Muslim Brother Jamaan Al-Hirbish polled 23.5% of the women's vote and 22.1% of the men's vote. His victory is especially noteworthy because second-place finisher Khalaf Al-Dmaithir (who will still be in the National Assembly) had come in first in every election since 1981. Dmaithir, a classic pro-Government service deputy, won 20.6% of the men's vote and 16.9% of the women's vote. It is not clear, however, whether these numbers point to an Islamist bent among women. Dmaithir's low numbers among women relative to Al-Hirbish's numbers may signify that women were more likely to vote for change. In this election, the biggest issue was reduction of corruption and redistricting. Since the Islamists are reformists on these issues, it is hard to know whether votes for Islamists were votes for Islamism or votes for reform. One very liberal young woman from Al-Tabtabaei's district voted for him, much to her chagrin, because she felt that he was the most likely candidate to vote for electoral redistricting. ¶6. (C/NF) In general, votes in Kuwait are not easy to interpret. Voters may vote for a candidate based on tribal connections despite differences in political views. Others may not vote for the candidate they prefer because they see him/her as unlikely to be elected. Many voters vote for the candidate they believe will provide the most services rather than on the basis of positions on big-picture political issues. And, as with any political system, voters may vote for a candidate with whom they agree on one important issue even though they disagree with his/her views on other issues. Finally, being able to vote for two candidates introduces further strategic dimensions to voting. Despite the difficulty of discerning the meaning of votes from raw numbers, the numbers strongly suggest that women did not provide a major boost for the Islamists. Did Women Vote According to Male Relatives' Instructions? -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C/NF) Overall, it is striking how similarly men and women seem to have voted. According to Post calculations, 6 of the 25 districts had a gender gap of less than one percent, 11 districts had a gender gap between one and two percent, and 7 districts had a gender gap between two and three percent. District 24, with a 4.1% gap, is the only district where the gap exceeded 3 percent. This would seem to support another of the commonly offered theories in these elections, i.e. that women would vote according to the wishes of their fathers, brothers, husbands, or other male relatives. It is impossible to know, however, what went on in women's minds as they voted. An alternate theory to that of women voting according to men's wishes is that women sufficiently influenced the campaigns so that male candidates had to take positions that addressed women's concerns. Thus, on election day there were few candidates who stood out as especially different from the perspective of men or women. ¶8. (C/NF) It is somewhat surprising that of those who voted for women's rights in 2005, eight lost compared to 11 who were re-elected. Two lost in tribal primaries, which are illegal and in which women do not participate. Meanwhile, of those who voted against women's political rights, only 5 lost re-election bids as compared to 16 who won. One candidate who voted against women's political rights lost in a primary. This could be used as further evidence that women were voting along the same lines as men, though causal statements are difficult to prove. Many of those who voted against women's voting rights have come out in favor of constituency reform, which will probably be the only way women will be elected. So they may end up helping women into office despite their initial opposition. Women will have more to base their decisions on in the next parliamentary elections, when they will be able to evaluate the men they voted for. That may be a stronger indication of women's political KUWAIT 00002774 003 OF 003 independence than this initial trial. Stats Suggest Why Reformers Want Redistricting -------------- - ¶9. (C/NF) Reformers complain that small districts mean candidates win by such small margins that dispensing of favors and money for votes is rampant. The election statistics bear this out. There were seven districts in which the difference between the second and third place winners -- i.e. the margin for getting into Parliament -- was less than 200 voters. In 14 of the 25 districts, the margin between the second and third place candidates was less than 500 votes. If, as many suggest, some voters are willing to accept money in exchange for their vote, the cost of buying 500 votes is well within the budgets of many of the candidates. And it should be noted that the size of the districts in this election more than doubled because of women's votes. There were widespread reports of electoral corruption, though the amount of vote-buying that actually occurred is unknowable. Media campaigns and many candidates made it a major campaign issue, which may have led to a decrease in the incidence of electoral corruption this year. ********************************************* * For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s Visit Kuwait's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ ********************************************* * TUELLER