WHAT HAPPENS NEXT IN KUWAIT?: EXPECTED SUCCESSION

UNCLAS KUWAIT 000259 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/ARPI, NSC FOR RAMCHAND, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KU SUCCESSION SUBJECT: WHAT HAPPENS NEXT IN KUWAIT?: EXPECTED SUCCESSION TIMELINE REF: KUWAIT 233 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (U) The Council of Ministers nominated Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah Al-Jaber Al-Sabah as the 15th Amir of Kuwait during an emergency meeting the evening of January 24, hours after Parliament unanimously voted Amir-designate Shaykh Saad Al-Salem Al-Sabah medically incapable of holding the position (reftel). Though only a simple majority (33 votes) is needed, Parliament is expected to unanimously confirm the nomination on January 29. This session is likely to be followed immediately by another to administer the Amiri oath, allowing Shaykh Sabah to officially assume the position. Once confirmed, Shaykh Sabah has two days for "consultations" before appointing a new Prime Minister. The Prime Minister then has two weeks to form a new Cabinet. Shaykh Sabah will have one year to appoint a new Crown Prince, though many expect a nomination much sooner. The Crown Prince must be approved by a majority of the National Assembly. ¶2. (SBU) Parliament resorted to relieving Shaykh Saad of his position when the arrival of the promised letter of abdication was repeatedly delayed by Shaykh Saad's wife, Shaykha Latifa, who reportedly demanded 10 million KD ($340 million) annually, the retaining of the titles of "First Lady" and "the wife of His Highness the Amir," the use of the private Amiri plane, and the appointment of her son Shaykh Fahad Al-Saad Al-Salem Al-Sabah as a governmental advisor in exchange for the letter. Shaykh Latifa finally relented, but the letter arrived at Parliament minutes after voting began. In his "acceptance" speech, Shaykh Sabah recognized Shaykh Saad's dedication to "Kuwait and its people" and the "heroic role" he played during the Iraqi invasion, but stressed that his removal was necessary to protect the "security, stability, and interests" of Kuwait. He said he regretted the delay in signing the abdication letter caused "by ladies and kids," but praised Parliament's adherence to constitutional procedures to "bring the country to safety." ¶3. (U) Kuwaitis point out that the leadership crisis was resolved in accordance with the constitution, an indication of the strength and resilience of the constitutional process in Kuwait, which, according to some contacts, surprised even Kuwaitis. Mohammed Al-Jassem, the former editor-in-chief of Al-Watan and a vocal government critic, argued in a January 25 article posted on his website that the public debate over succession and the reliance on Parliament to resolve the controversy broke social taboos against criticizing the ruling family and set a precedence for greater parliamentary involvement in political decision-making. He predicted Parliament would be less hesitant to publicly question the next Prime Minister. Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Mohammed Al-Sager told the Ambassador that he for one was not embarrassed by the difficulties in naming the new Amir, noting that Kuwait obeyed "a constitutional process" in the leadership transition, unlike Syria, for example, where a cabal installed Assad's son. ********************************************* Visit Embassy Kuwait's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website ********************************************* LeBaron