FREEDOM AGENDA: PARLIAMENT LEADERS DISCUSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 001570 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/ARP, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KU FREEDOM AGENDA SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA: PARLIAMENT LEADERS DISCUSS ELECTORAL DISTRICT REFORMS WITH AMBASSADOR, CABINET STILL DIVIDED REF: KUWAIT 1317 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In a May 2 meeting, the Cabinet failed to agree on whether to support a reduction in the number of electoral constituencies from 25 to ten or five. Parliamentary debate on the issue, scheduled for May 15, could be postponed if the Government's proposal is further delayed. National Assembly Speaker Jassem Al-Khorafi, Deputy National Assembly Speaker Mishari Al-Anjari, and Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee Mohammed Jassem Al-Sager shared their views on reduction proposals and the May 15 session during separate meetings on May 3 with the Ambassador. Al-Anjari characterized the debate as "a battle between corruption and reform," and argued that Ministers opposing the reform would do everything they could to block its implementation. Al-Sager said, "There is no way to proceed with democracy (in Kuwait) without electoral reform." He agreed with Al-Anjari that powerful Ministers opposed the reform for fear of losing power to Parliament. Al-Khorafi believed the Government would ultimately back ten constituencies and predicted the May 15 session would be delayed. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) In a five hour meeting on May 2, the Cabinet failed to agree on a proposal to reduce the number of electoral constituencies from the current 25. Debate centered over whether to support five or ten constituencies. According to many contacts and local media reports, Energy Minister Shaykh Ahmed Al-Fahd Al-Sabah, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of State for National Assembly Affairs/Cabinet Affairs Mohammed Sharar, Commerce Minister Yousef Al-Zalzalah, and "one or two other Ministers" support ten constituencies, while the other Ministers support five. ¶3. (SBU) The National Assembly is scheduled to debate the issue on May 15 (reftel),however, this could be postponed if the Government does not submit its proposal in time. Supporters of the reform argue the reduction would dramatically reduce corrupt electoral practices rumored to be widespread. Local political associations, NGOs, and many of the 29 members of Parliament (MPs) who openly support the reform have been organizing almost nightly rallies in favor of a reduction; most support five constituencies. The Cabinet is scheduled to debate the issue again during an extraordinary session on May 5. "A Battle Between Corruption and Reform" -------------- ¶4. (C) The Ambassador met separately May 3 with National Assembly Speaker Jassem Al-Khorafi, Deputy National Assembly Speaker Mishari Al-Anjari, and Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee Mohammed Jassem Al-Sager to hear their views on electoral reform and their predictions for the May 15 session. Al-Anjari characterized the debate over the reduction as "a battle between corruption and reform." He claimed Shaykh Ahmed, Sharar, and Al-Zalzalah only supported ten constituencies as a "tactic" to block any reduction proposal from being passed. "Even if the Government has good intentions on May 15," the three Ministers would do everything they could to block the reform, Al-Anjari argued. "If the reform is not passed, the Amir will lose the confidence of the entire Parliament," he concluded. ¶5. (C) Al-Sager, who like Al-Anjari supports five constituencies, argued that the two most important political reforms in Kuwait were reducing the number of electoral constituencies and permitting the formation of political parties. Highlighting widespread Government/Parliament corruption, he stressed that there was "no way to proceed with democracy (in Kuwait) without electoral reform. It is no longer a matter of convincing, it is a matter of wanting reform or not." He claimed those opposing the reform, whom he called "The Corrupted," were "telling the ruling family that if five constituencies were adopted, they would have to deal with a strong National Assembly, more powerful liberals and Islamists, and the possibility of a non-Al-Sabah Prime Minister being appointed." He said "they" were also afraid of losing influence in the National Assembly. Both Al-Sager and Al-Anjari said Al-Khorafi also opposed the reform, despite his public support for ten constituencies. Ten a Legitimate Reform? -------------- ¶6. (C) Although he believed the fewer constituencies the better, Al-Anjari argued that ten would be better than the KUWAIT 00001570 002 OF 002 current 25, and that further reduction could be achieved over time. He cautioned, however, that with ten constituencies there would be more dispute over gerrymandering. Al-Sager also said ten constituencies would be better than 25, but warned that "after four years it will be much worse" due to representational inequities between the ten districts. He said one constituency would be best, but believed there was "no chance" this would be adopted. Skepticism about May 15 Session -------------- ¶7. (C) Al-Khorafi believed the Cabinet would ultimately agree to support ten constituencies. He noted, though, that there would still be disagreement over the geographic distribution of the larger constituencies, indicating the issue could be further delayed. Al-Khorafi said he supported ten constituencies because under a five constituency system tribes and sectarian groups would be forced to hold election primaries to choose a candidate(s) to represent them. He added that to jump from 25 to five would "leave a large question mark" on electoral outcomes, particularly given the uncertain impact of women voting. (Note: Women were given full political rights in May 2005. They will vote in national elections for the first time in 2007. End note.) The Speaker predicted on May 15 the Government would support a motion to further delay parliamentary debate of the issue. He concluded, though, that if the electoral system was not changed before the 2007 parliamentary elections, it would be very difficult to change afterwards. Al-Khorafi also noted a proposal being floated to expand the parliament to sixty members, requiring a constitutional change, in order to simplify reduction of the number of districts. He noted hesitation, however, to open up the constitution, since this could lead to other, unrelated demands for changes in the constitution. ¶8. (C) Many contacts are skeptical the reform will be passed on May 15. Dr. Ahmed Al-Baghdadi, a liberal columnist and former political science professor, told Poloff May 1 that "corruption is an institution in Kuwait." He did not believe the Government was serious about the reduction, noting that it would lose influence in Parliament if the reform was implemented. Dr. Ali Al-Zo'bi, an expert on Kuwait's electoral system, told Poloff in a separate meeting on May 1 that nothing would happen on May 15. "The Government is not serious about the reduction," he explained. Former Shi'a MP Dr. Yacoub Al-Hayati told Poloff May 2 that since the Government and the National Assembly were "very corrupt," for them to debate electoral reform was a "conflict of interests." "It is like they are declaring a war on themselves," he explained. Al-Hayati also predicted the National Assembly would not pass a reduction proposal on May ¶15. ¶9. (C) COMMENT: While skepticism about the outcome of the debate is understandable, we have been struck by the very active discussion of this issue and the widespread public demand for reform. The government will play a credibility price if it ducks this reform again. ********************************************* * For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s Visit Kuwait's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ ********************************************* * LEBARON