GCC ADVISOR: IRAN TOP ISSUE ON AGENDA OF THE MAY 6

C O N F I D E N T I A L KUWAIT 001568 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/IR AND NEA/ARP, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2016 TAGS: PREL IR KU KUWAIT IRAN RELATIONS SUBJECT: GCC ADVISOR: IRAN TOP ISSUE ON AGENDA OF THE MAY 6 GCC SUMMIT IN RIYADH REF: A. KUWAIT 1519 ¶B. KUWAIT 1451 ¶C. KUWAIT 1346 ¶D. KUWAIT 1319 Classified By: Political Counselor Natalie E. Brown for reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Dr. Yacoub Al-Hayati, one of Kuwait's five members on the Gulf Cooperation Council's (GCC) 30-member Advisory Committee, told Poloff May 2 that Iran's nuclear program would dominate the agenda of the "six-hour" GCC Consultative Summit scheduled to be held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on May 6. Al-Hayati said GCC states "did not trust the Iranians" and were privately united in their opposition to Iran's nuclear program, but were nonetheless hesitant to publicly confront Iran partly because they did not want to be labeled pro-Israel. Gulf countries wanted "to completely exhaust diplomatic options" to remove any pretext Iran could use to justify its nuclear program, Al-Hayati explained. He criticized GCC states, however, for failing to exert unified diplomatic pressure on Iran and continuing to deal with Iran individually. According to Al-Hayati, no communique will be issued after the May 6 summit. ¶2. (C) Al-Hayati reported that the "American interests" Iran threatened to attack if the U.S. attacks its nuclear facilities were interpreted in Kuwait as 1) the American people, and 2) U.S. economic and military interests, like oil installations and U.S. military facilities in the Gulf. He believed Gulf states would be the "victims" of any confrontation between the U.S. and Iran, and said Iranian-backed terrorist attacks in Kuwait would "definitely" be a threat if such a confrontation took place. Noting that "Iranian positions change on a regular basis," Al-Hayati predicted Iran would back down "within a year" in the face of international pressure over its nuclear program. ¶3. (SBU) Former GCC Secretary General Abdullah Bishara similarly criticized GCC hesitancy to openly condemn Iran's nuclear program in a May 1 article in the Arabic daily Al-Watan. Bishara, who is also one of Kuwait's GCC Advisory Council members, claimed Gulf countries have not clearly communicated their concerns in private meetings with Iranian officials, and warned that Iran would exploit GCC hesitancy to "promote its own ideas and programs." Bishara agreed that Iran would dominate the agenda of the May 6 GCC Consultative Summit. "One Crown for One Hundred Turbans" -------------- ¶4. (C) Al-Hayati said he was invited by Prime Minister Shaykh Nasser Mohammed Al-Sabah to a meeting with former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani during Rafsanjani's recent trip to Kuwait (reftels). Characterizing Rafsanjani as a "fox," Al-Hayati asserted that the former Iranian President, whom he claimed to know personally, had maintained "interests" with Saddam Hussein through the two leaders' sons during the Iran-Iraq War. Al-Hayati concluded that the Iranians had traded "one crown (the Shah) for one hundred turbans." ********************************************* * For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s Visit Kuwait's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ ********************************************* * LEBARON