KUWAITI STRATEGIC EXPERT: SMILES FOR RAFSANJANI,

C O N F I D E N T I A L KUWAIT 001346 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/ARP AND NEA/IR, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2016 TAGS: PREL IR KU KUWAIT IRAN RELATIONS SUBJECT: KUWAITI STRATEGIC EXPERT: SMILES FOR RAFSANJANI, BUT GOK PREPARING CONTINGENCY PLANS REF: A. KUWAIT 1342 ¶B. KUWAIT 1319 ¶C. KUWAIT 86 Classified By: DCM Matt Tueller for reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Dr. Sami Al-Faraj, Director of the Kuwait Center for Strategic Studies (KCSS),a private research institute, told Poloff April 18 that Chairman of Iran's Expediency Council Hashemi Rafsanjani, who concludes a three-day visit to Kuwait April 18, conveyed a veiled threat to the Kuwaiti leadership. While assuring the GOK Iran's nuclear program was for peaceful purposes and Iran did not anticipate U.S. military action, Al-Faraj said Rafsanjani cautioned, "Our actions depend on your actions." (Comment: Al-Faraj attributed this information to newspaper reports on Rafsanjani's visit, not first hand information. End comment.) Al-Faraj believed Kuwait would "play the diplomatic card to the very end," but in the meantime was preparing for the worst case scenario. ¶2. (C) "Despite the smiles (between Kuwaiti and Iranian officials)," Al-Faraj claimed Kuwait was taking the Iranian nuclear issue "seriously" and was actively preparing contingency plans for a possible U.S.-Iran military confrontation. According to him, the GOK was particularly concerned about an Iranian strike on U.S. forces in southern Kuwait and the impact on the nearby Shuwaiba industrial area; terrorist attacks by Iranian agents or by Iranian sympathizers acting alone; and, of greatest concern, large scale demonstrations by either Iranian expatriates in Kuwait or Kuwaitis sympathetic to the Iranian cause, a situation Al-Faraj claimed the GOK had "no idea" how to handle. "This is our nightmare," he concluded. ¶3. (C) Al-Faraj, who regularly advises GOK ministries on strategic issues, claimed the Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR) had recently taken radiation samples around the country to establish a baseline to use in measuring any possible future radiation contamination. In addition, he said Kuwait was stockpiling medical supplies for emergency services and would conduct military maneuvers April 30 to test new computer systems, communications equipment, and operating procedures. Al-Faraj noted that KCSS had recently completed a study examining five probable outcomes of the Iranian nuclear crisis and outlining possible Kuwaiti contingency plans. Al-Faraj claimed the study was provided to senior Kuwaiti military and Ministry of Interior officials and would be used in developing training simulations. ¶4. (C) Bio Comment: As Director of KCSS, Al-Faraj regularly teaches training courses for Kuwaiti military and MOI officials. Al-Faraj also writes studies on key strategic issues, which he claims are used by GOK officials for planning purposes. While closely connected with Kuwait's strategic community, Al-Faraj does not speak for the GOK, nor does he appear to have regular, direct access to key Kuwaiti decision makers. Al-Faraj told Poloff he would visit Iran next week at the invitation of the Iranian Expediency Council. ********************************************* * For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s Visit Kuwait's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ ********************************************* * LEBARON