(U) BA'QUBAH CARTOON DEMONSTRATION LARGEST IN OVER A YEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L KIRKUK 000040 SIPDIS SIPDIS BAGHDAD FOR POLMIL, POL, PAO AND NCT E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/22/2016 TAGS: PGOV KISL PHUM KDEM PINS IZ SUBJECT: (U) BA'QUBAH CARTOON DEMONSTRATION LARGEST IN OVER A YEAR CLASSIFIED BY: Scott Dean, Regional Coordinator (Acting),Reo Kirkuk, Department of State . REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (U) This is a SET Ba'qubah cable. ¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY. A February 19 demonstration in Ba'qubah protesting Danish cartoons and the alleged 2004 British beating of students in al-Amarah amassed one of the largest crowds Ba'qubah has seen in a demonstration to date. The numbers may imply a considerable degree of popular interest in the cartoons; a more proximate reason for the large crowd may be the participation, for the first time, of secondary school students (who formed a substantial majority of the overall number of protesters) in the protest. END SUMMARY. ¶3. (U) On the morning of February 19, a large crowd of demonstrators gathered in downtown Ba'qubah carrying banners with religious slogans written on them and chanting against the Danish cartoons and the alleged abuse by British forces against students (recently released on video). All of our involved contacts, both within and outside of the demonstration, have assured us that there were no anti-American slogans on the banners or in the chants. Counts of the crowd ranged from 500 to 2000, but the estimates of most of our contacts put the number of demonstrators at approximately 1200. U.S. Army estimates put the crowd at well under 1000. The protest was generally peaceful, though the crowd threw rocks on two occasions - at SET convoy (on its way to a meeting that was aborted, as the crowd was blocking the road) and later at a convoy of CF military police. ¶4. (C) Two student organizations were behind the February 19 demonstration: the IIP-dominated Diyala University Student Union (Diyala IIP Chairman Hamdi al-Zubaydi denies any IIP foreknowledge of or involvement in the demonstration) and the Student and Youth Guild, a Diyala-wide organization incorporating students of intermediate schools, secondary schools, and vocational institutes whose members range in age from 15 to 45. Unsurprisingly, the demonstrators (as at almost all demonstrations in Ba'qubah) were drawn primarily from the membership of these two groups. Diyala University Student Union President Ra'ad Majid claims to have been taken by surprise (NOTE: though he clearly seemed gratified) by the size of the demonstration and the level of media coverage that it had received. Diyala Governor Ra'ad al-Mullah Jawad al-Timimi, who had granted the protest organizers a permit, had calculated in a February 15 meeting with SET that 100-150 protesters would show up. Diyala IIP Chairman Hamdi Hassun al-Zubaydi denies any advance knowledge of the demonstration - much IIP less support. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: The size of the February 19 demonstration appears to have surprised all involved - for good reason. Previous demonstrations protesting emotionally charged events, such as the November 12 arrest of 300 Sunni leaders by the MOI and the MARAM protests against the December election results, produced crowds of a few hundred at most. The cartoon protest likely drew larger-than-average numbers of the usual suspects (university students, young adults, etc.). However, the addition of intermediate and secondary school students - the majority of the crowd - is what raised the size of the crowd to such an impressive (for Ba'qubah) level. (This may also explain the relatively undisciplined nature of their behavior towards CF vehicles.) We expect to see more participation by the Student and Youth Guild in future demonstrations, and perhaps increased competition among the political parties in Diyala over the Guild's leadership. END COMMENT. ORESTE