(SBU) TURCOMAN FRONT FEELS CHEATED, BUT SAYS ELECTION A STEP

UNCLAS KIRKUK 000019 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/I E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ SUBJECT: (SBU) TURCOMAN FRONT FEELS CHEATED, BUT SAYS ELECTION A STEP FORWARD REF: 05 KIRKUK 284, 289 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION: Iraqi Turcoman Front (ITF) leader Sadettin Ergech called on Regional Coordinator (RC) and UK Consul General January 28. Ergech was the only person running as a Turcoman who won a seat in the December national legislative elections (some Turcomans running with UIA and other lists were also elected). Ergech and his delegation complained that the allocation of compensatory seats was unfair, but they did not seem to grasp the formula. They appealed for US and UK help in getting the ITF a second (compensatory) seat in the Council of Representatives; this appeal met with no sympathy. Encouragingly, the ITF's bottom line was that the elections were a step forward for Iraq. END SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION. ¶2. (SBU) At the time of the elections, the ITF was very upset about alleged Kurdish fraud (reftels). Ergech and other Turcoman leaders claimed their young people, disillusioned with them, were on the verge of taking up arms to defend Turcoman interests. In the January 28 meeting, Ergech exhibited conflicting sentiments: he was still unhappy at what he called massive fraud by the Kurds and unfair allocation of seats by the electoral commission (IECI); he still claimed his followers were deeply dissatisfied; at the same time, he was visibly proud of having been elected to the Council of Representatives. His main objective for the meeting was to enlist US and UK help to gain a compensatory seat for the ITF, in order to reflect more accurately the Turcoman share of Iraq's population. ¶3. (SBU) RC and UK CG stressed that: -- the international election experts had concluded that there was electoral fraud but that it did not substantially affect the outcome; -- there is no evidence that the IECI misapplied the formula for allocating compensatory seats. (RC explained the formula at some length, showing that inevitably somebody wins a higher percentage of seats than votes, and vice versa. As long as the formula is applied faithfully for all parties, it is not unfair.) ¶4. (SBU) RC quoted one of the IECI's FAQ to the effect that in an election, there is no guaranteed representation for minorities or anyone else, it all depends on how the voting goes. ¶5. (SBU) As the meeting drew to a close, the ITF delegation affirmed that, for all its faults, the December election had been a step forward in the establishment of democracy in Iraq. They said they would remain engaged in the political process. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: The ITF leaders seem to have come into the meeting without understanding the formula for allocating compensatory seats, and without grasping the more general point that whenever you draw a line, somebody is going to just barely cross it and somebody is going to fall just short - the problem is inherent in having a line, it is not a matter of where you draw it. (We have encountered similar incomprehension on the part of some surprisingly senior Kurdish figures.) ¶7. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED: RC was left with the impression that Ergech and his colleagues were probing to see if they could improve their position in the Council of Representatives, and to see how the US and UK assessed the elections. It is possible they actually learned something from the discussion. BELL