KIRKUK RULING COALITION AGAINST BAKER-HAMILTON REPORT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KIRKUK 000174 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/I - KHOURY-KINCANNON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PBTS PINR IZ SUBJECT: KIRKUK RULING COALITION AGAINST BAKER-HAMILTON REPORT KIRKUK 00000174 001.2 OF 002 Sensitive but unclassified; please handle accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On October 10 key representatives of the ruling PUK/KDP-dominated local government demarched the REO, and on October 11 affiliated NGO's held a demonstration in front of our gate, about the Iraq Study Group (ISG) Report. In the PUK/KDP's view, the ISG report was biased in favor of Baghdad. They strongly objected to any proposal to modify the constitution, and changes to Iraqi Constitution Article 140 on the final status of Kirkuk would cross a "red line." Many of the representatives objected to characterization of Kirkuk as a "powder keg," and others expressed affront that "outsiders," whether Baghdad-by-fiat, the UN -- or especially Iraq's neighbors-- could hold sway in Kirkuk's final status determination. Some also seized on the report's recommendation for dialog with Baathists, arguing that they represented few, if any, residents in Kirkuk while more broadly such a move could only reward terrorism and encourage militarization by other rejectionists. The underlying motive for the multi-day push was to gauge any change in U.S. attitudes toward "Kurdistan." REO Director affirmed that the ISG's recommendations would be taken into consideration but do not represent U.S. policy. While the speakers included Arabs and Turcoman, principal political leaders of those groups in Kirkuk (most of whom favor delay of Article 140 implementation in favor of a negotiated power-sharing arrangement) have not yet publicly commented on the ISG report. It is likely that they were the intended audience for the noisy 300+ member PUK/KDP-sponsored demonstration in front of the REO condemning the ISG report. END SUMMARY. KIRKUK LOCAL GOVERNMENT DECAMPS TO THE REO~ -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) On October 10, REO-Kirkuk entertained an ad hoc meeting of the Kirkuk Provincial Council (PC),led by its Chairman, Rizgar Ali Hamajan, who was accompanied by two locally-based members of the national Article 140 Commission (which lays out the mechanism for resolving the status of Kirkuk) and almost 30 PC members (all from the ruling PUK/KDP-dominated "Kirkuk Brotherhood List" -KBL). Rizgar Ali stated his concerns about the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group (ISG) Report, keying on similar themes laid out by Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and Kurdistan Regional Government President Masoud Barzani who have dominated local media on the subject over the last few days. Token representatives of all KBL stripes -- an Arab, a Turcoman, a Christian and a woman - spoke during the REO meeting. ¶3. (SBU) In the view of the PUK/KDP representatives, the ISG report was biased in favor of Baghdad and a centralized government over the regions and federalism. Specifically, they insisted that natural resource policies (read "Kurdistan"-based oil reserves) were a partnership between the regions and the central government. Rizgar Ali (and others) said they were insulted by terms like "time bomb" and "powder keg" to describe the situation in Kirkuk. Kirkuk was a multi-ethnic city, and its problems were being addressed according to democratic means that were laid out and protected by a constitution that enjoyed national consensus. What would be explosive would be if "someone" were to try to supplant the democratic process now in motion, they said. A KDP representative went further in saying that now Kurds were America's best allies, if the U.S. tried to subvert Article 140, it risked becoming their "worst enemy." ¶4. (SBU) Rizgar Ali and the other speakers were careful to stress the historically close ties between the local community and the U.S. Most spoke at length about their own personal cooperation. Rizgar Ali said he considered the REO and the PRT "part of his own family." Speakers also agreed that the U.S. troop presence was part of the equation for success as well. For Rizgar Ali, that was why the ISG recommendations came as a shock. Noting that none of the ISG team had visited the region, Rizgar Ali asked point-blank who provided Messrs.Baker and Hamilton the information by which they reached their conclusions. Rizgar Ali insisted that he had never heard these views from the State Department. Other speakers claimed that the constitution itself was the product of direct American involvement and coaching, so there was understandable confusion as to why the U.S. might now want to distance itself from some of its content. ¶5. (SBU) All were vehement that Article 140 be implemented as written, without delay and without "outside interference." A Turcoman representative speaking in Kurdish called Article 140 "a local solution to a local issue." Rizgar Ali warned that interference with Article 140 implementation would be crossing a "red line." Some also seized on the report's recommendation to KIRKUK 00000174 002.2 OF 002 hold dialog with Baathists, arguing that Baathists represented few, if any, people in Kirkuk. More broadly, they asserted, such a move could only reward terrorism and encourage militarization by other rejectionists. Rizgar Ali said the PC would follow up with a written summary of their views. ~FOLLOWED BY A PUBLIC DEMONSTRATION OUTSIDE THE GATES -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶6. (U) On October 11, a clearly-scripted demonstration of about 350 marchers made up of students and NGOs falling loosely under the KBL banner (comment: we understand that buses were paid for by the KDP) marched to the gates of the REO. REO Director invited three representatives of the group (one from the PUK, KDP, and a Turcoman) into the compound. Their views mirrored those expressed by the PC. The group presented a letter outlining their concerns addressed to President Bush, the U.S. Congress and the ISG. The gathering, while noisy, was well-behaved and followed closely the parameters worked out by local security, which cordoned off streets and followed the group at a discreet distance. The local police commander escorted the demonstration leaders into the REO compound. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (SBU) This was only the second time Rizgar Ali ever came to the REO (the first was in March of this year following a fatal shooting incident involving REO contract security). While individuals and small groups from the PC are regular guests here, the presence of the KBL's "A" list amounted to a de facto PC meeting. Similarly, public demonstrations at the REO gates are uncommon. The underlying motive for the multi-day push was to take measure of any changing attitudes of the U.S. toward "Kurdistan." REO Director affirmed that the ISG's recommendations would be taken into consideration but do not represent U.S. policy. That we received both a local government delegation and one from the demonstrators attests that we also listen to the views expressed locally. For now, local media is carrying that message. While some of the speakers included Arabs and Turcoman, principal political leaders of those groups here (most of whom favor delay of Article 140 implementation in favor of a negotiated power-sharing arrangement) have not yet publicly pronounced on the ISG report. It is likely that they, not us, were the real audience for the noisy 300+ member PUK/KDP-sponsored demonstration in front of the REO condemning the ISG report. SCOTT