PUK LEADERSHIP: PARTY CHANGE, KRG UNITY, IRAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIRKUK 000117 SIPDIS SIPDIS BAGHDAD FOR POL, ECON, IRMO, NCT E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/13/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PNAT KDEM KCOR EPET IZ IN SUBJECT: PUK LEADERSHIP: PARTY CHANGE, KRG UNITY, IRAN KIRKUK 00000117 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Scott Dean, Regional Coordinator (Acting),Reo Kirkuk, Department of State . REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary. On May 31 PUK party leader Noshirwan Mustafa informed PRT/REO POLOFS that the number of new KRG ministries was linked to building support for the Kurds on the 2007 Kirkuk Referendum. Further, the PUK would soon hold a congress to restructure the party to adapt to the new political realities in Iraq. Finally, he likened the oil crises in Basra - and pending inability to pay government salaries - to the state collapse in Somalia. In a separate meeting, Sulaymaniyah Governor Dana expressed concern over the disparity between Iran-Iraq border posts. End Summary. Excess of Ministries Linked to Kirkuk Referendum -------------- --- ¶2. (C) In a meeting with PRT Leader, Acting REO Coordinator and IPAO, Noshirwan Mustafa admitted the excessive forty-two ministries created as part of a unified KRG were part of a political strategy to build alliances with non-Kurd minorities. (NOTE: Smaller parties - composed mainly of Turkoman, Christians, Yezidis, and Faily Kurds - nearly doubled their representation from 6 to 11 ministries in the new government. END NOTE.) Once the 2007 referendum returned Kirkuk to the Kurdistan Region the number would be reduced. ¶3. (C) Discussing Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's program for implementing Article 140, Mustafa said the first period of normalization entailed the return of IDP's and settlers to Kirkuk with compensation and the restoration of the Kirkuk Governorate to pre-1968 boundaries. In the next step, an outside party such as the United Nations would supervise a census, after which the referendum would be held. The KRG had already appointed Dr. Mohammad Ihsan as minister for areas such as Kirkuk that were outside the Kurdistan Region. He added that Baghdad must follow through on ensuring a timely referendum as per Article 140. ¶4. (C) Mustafa admitted the fourteen Kirkuk Provincial Council members who were currently demanding Kirkuk become a federated province were a problem. He felt that non-Kurds in Kirkuk, such as Arabs who opposed Article 140 and the restoration of boundaries to pre-1968 status, should move to Mosul or Tikrit. Legal Issues at Heart of Full KRG Unification -------------- ¶5. (C) Mustafa said that before unifying the remaining ministries, conflicting laws between Sulaymaniyah and Erbil needed rectification, e.g. taxation, investment, and the personal status laws. These were technical issues that, once resolved, would open the way for the ministries of Justice and Finance to unite. The Peshmerga ministries were the most difficult to merge because they had been enemies for over thirty years. He said they wanted to avoid a scenario similar to the unification of East and West Germany where one side was absorbed - or "eaten" - by the other. ¶6. (SBU) Mustafa said that the new ministries were meeting regularly in Erbil. Although some employees had been let go, all continued to receive full salaries. If the leadership provided a good example, he felt confident the combined KDP-PUK workforce would work together. Security Concerns Override Corruption for Investors -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Mustafa said foreign companies were not investing in the Kurdistan Region because of the overall perception of poor security in Iraq, not because of corruption. He said the KRG faced an unknown future because large companies such as GE or British Shell were not differentiating between the two when it came to security. "We can say we are fighting corruption however they still would not come." He added that hundreds of Sunni and Shia Arabs were working in Sulaymaniyah as doctors, engineers, and professors, because it was safer than Baghdad. ¶9. (SBU) To address investor concerns with infrastructure, he said a committee in parliament was drafting a new Investment Law. At a recent meeting in Kuwait with potential investors, banking, land, and investment laws dominated the discussion. Reorganizing the PUK -------------- ¶10. (C) Mustafa said the PUK would soon hold a Party Congress in KIRKUK 00000117 002.2 OF 002 order to rethink the direction and mission of the party. Party members would elect participants, with representation for every 1,000 members. The goals of the congress include: - Adapting the party platform to the post-Saddam era; - Shifting the party structure from a communism-based Politburo to one that distributed power throughout the organization; and - Reorganizing the leadership to include women and young people by replacing the 'revolutionary' governing model with a parliamentary methodology. ¶11. (C) Mustafa said the demonstrations in Halabja and Kalar woke up both the KDP and PUK to the extent of public dissatisfaction with the status quo. Further, Islamic parties such as the KIU were growing in popularity because of the lack of services, party-based corruption, and poverty. He said the parties had not distributed services, including access to health, education, housing, and electricity, equally. Basra Oil Crisis - Precursor to a Somalia -------------- ¶12. (C) Mustafa stressed the importance of securing Basra for all of Iraq, stating that Basra's petrol revenues provided the majority of government salaries throughout the country. The provinces were working as independent states because the interruption of oil flow had dissolved unity. He said Iraq now faced a state collapse similar to Somalia. Sulaymaniyah Governor Raises Border Disparity issue -------------- -------------- ¶13. (C) Sulaymaniyah Governor Dana raised in a separate meeting his concern over the disparity between conditions along the Iraq-Iran border. He said that over the 415km where Sulaymaniyah bordered Iran, Iraq had only 15 poorly maintained police stations that had not been improved since the Peshmerga era; and yet Iran had invested more into upgrading the roads, providing troops with rockets, etc. Dana said the disparity opened up the border to drugs, smuggling, and cross-border terrorism. Biographic Note: -------------- ¶14. (C) Noshirwan Mustafa is one of the most respected senior PUK politburo members and widely expected to be one of those vying to replace Talabani. He is considered the thinker of the PUK and the only one who can rein in Kosrat Rasoul. He speaks English well, however prefers to use translators for more sensitive topics. Comment: -------------- ¶15. (C) Both the KDP and PUK must adapt their parties to a new post-Saddam, post-Peshmerga Kurdistan. The increased popularity of the Islamic parties seems more daunting to the parties than general unrest over corruption and continuing poverty; however the impetus to update their agendas, however motivated, is heartening. Dana's concern over Sulaymaniyah's loosely guarded border is in the domain of the Ministry of Interior in Baghdad, but without an MOI office in the region itself, the issue will probably not be addressed any time soon. End comment. BIGUS