(SBU) KURDS EXPECT SHIITES WILL AGREE KIRKUK CAN JOIN KRG

C O N F I D E N T I A L KIRKUK 000011 SIPDIS SIPDIS POL, ECON, NCT E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/28/2016 TAGS: PGOV PNAT EFIN PREL IZ SUBJECT: (SBU) KURDS EXPECT SHIITES WILL AGREE KIRKUK CAN JOIN KRG REF: 05 KIRKUK 285 CLASSIFIED BY: RBELL, PRC, PRC, DOS. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION. Kurdistan Regional Government-Sulaymaniyah (KRG-S) leaders complained to RC and DRC January 26 that the December elections had cheated the Kurds out of seats, though this would not prevent the Kurdish alliance from participating in the government. PUK Dep GenSec Noshirwan Mustafa seemed to think the U.S. had created the compensatory seat mechanism to move seats from, e.g., the Kurds to smaller parties. KRG-S PM Omar Fattah reported that the Kurdistan Islamic Union would vote with the Kurdish Alliance on major votes, but not join the alliance itself. Mustafa predicted the Kurds would avoid an Iraqi civil war over Kirkuk by guaranteeing minorities rights in the KRG constitution. The Arab district of Hawijah could split off to remain in Arab hands as part of the deal to join Kirkuk to the KRG. He predicted the status of Kirkuk would not be a controversial point in government formation negotiations: both Kurds and Shiites wanted to go back to 1968 provincial boundaries. END SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION. (C) DECEMBER ELECTIONS CHEAT KURDS? -------------- ¶2. (C) Both Fattah and Mustafa complained to RC and DRC January 26 that the December elections had cheated the Kurds out of seats. The PM charged that the Kurds lost six seats (from 59 to 53) because the IECI had changed voting districts and thrown out returns. He said this would not prevent the Kurdish Alliance from participating in the government. Mustafa charged the compensatory seat mechanism had moved four seats from the Kurds to smaller parties; he clearly thought the U.S. had created this mechanism at Kurdish expense to manipulate the outcome of the election, but seemed willing to accept this grudgingly. When RC explained the electoral commission (IECI)'s formula for allocating compensatory seats, it was plain that this was news to Mustafa. ¶3. (C) PM Fattah reported that the Kurdistan Islamic Union would vote with the Kurdish Alliance on major votes, but not join the alliance itself. ¶4. (C) Mustafa argued the new national government should divide cabinet seats both according to a party's number of votes and an ethnicity's percentage of the population. He thought a national unity government could move forward on agreed elements such as economic development, but not on disputed points such as ownership of natural resources and federalism. (U) PRIORITIES FOR A NEW NATIONAL GOVERNMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) Mustafa said the Kurds would avoid an Iraqi civil war over Kirkuk: the Kurds were the strongest party in Kirkuk and they wanted a peaceful transition (to KRG rule). The Kurds could avoid problems by guaranteeing minority rights in the KRG constitution, e.g., through autonomy along the lines of the Ottoman millet system with limited self-rule, right to use of language, and by promising certain political jobs to ethnicities, as in Lebanon. The Kurds were not hard over on Kirkuk province's borders: Hawijah could split off to remain in Arab hands as part of the deal to join Kirkuk to the KRG. ¶6. (C) Mustafa predicted the status of Kirkuk would not be a controversial point in negotiations to form a new national government. Both the Kurds and the Shiites wanted to go back to 1968 provincial boundaries, so both would turn a blind eye to this in government formation negotiations. ¶7. (C) When asked, Mustafa said that the new government should spur the Iraqi Property Claims Commission (IPCC) in 2006 and ¶2007. He was unconcerned that the national government had not budgeted enough to compensate claimants: the KRG had a $5 billion annual budget from monthly revenues and could contribute funds; KRG revenues would increase if oil production rose. ¶8. (SBU) When asked why the KRG had opened an education office in Qarah Hanjir (inside Kirkuk province),PM Fattah said it was to pay and otherwise deal with (Kurdish) teachers that the KRG had sent to Kirkuk province to fill the void left by the local authorities' failure to hire enough teachers. BELL