UDPS SAYS VIOLENCE "INEVITABLE" AFTER ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 000988 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS SUBJECT: UDPS SAYS VIOLENCE "INEVITABLE" AFTER ELECTIONS REF: A. KINSHASA 976 ¶B. KINSHASA 834 Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (C) Summary: A top-ranking official with the opposition Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) said June 21 that violence will be "inevitable" in the DRC after the country's elections, and that his party will take "no responsibility" for what will take place. Claiming that the international community has already determined the winner of the DRC's July 30 elections, UDPS National Committee President Valentin Mubake said the country is a "volcano waiting to erupt" and no foreign forces will able to prevent or control the expected violence. The UDPS official, however, did say the party would take part in the electoral process, but only if there were negotiations among the political class to address "certain problems" with the transitional government and the elections, including the reopening of the voter registration process. End summary. -------------- VIOLENCE IS "INEVITABLE" -------------- ¶2. (C) PolOff met June 21 with Valentin Mubake, President of the National Committee of the UDPS, to discuss the party's position on the elections and its intentions regarding potential violence around the July 30 elections. Over the course of the three-hour meeting, Mubake repeatedly warned that the DRC would inevitably descend into chaos after elections, primarily because the electoral process is not "credible," and the outcome has already been determined by the international community. When asked about the UDPS's role in inciting or supporting such violence, Mubake said these threats would be coming from "others," not his party. Moreover, Mubake said since the UDPS is outside the political process, it has "no responsibility" to prevent such actions from occurring. Mubake told PolOff to consider what he said as a "warning, not a threat." ¶3. (C) Mubake said the political climate in the DRC is one filled with hate and ethnic tensions being fanned by those currently in power in the transitional government. Describing the country as a "volcano waiting to erupt," Mubake said Congolese voters will not accept election results because they will not be credible. Mubake claimed the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) and its president, Abbe Apollinaire Malu Malu, were ultimately controlled by 
President Kabila and his political party, the People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD). Mubake said the international community -- including the United States -- has told the CEI what to do and when to hold elections, and has rigged the electoral system so Kabila will win. As a result, Mubake said people's votes will not matter since the system is "fixed." Mubake claimed PPRD officials, in particular the party's Secretary General Vital Kamehre, is handing out money and buying votes in the eastern part of the country. Mubake said there is no way for Kabila to win legitimately, and "no one" thinks the President could do so without paying off voters. ¶4. (C) Consequently, Mubake said those who lose in the July 30 elections will incite violence and take up arms, claiming the vote was manipulated and unfair. In addition, those who do win will do nothing to appease the losers and will instead say they are the absolute rulers of the country, further heightening tensions. With regard to the European Union force being sent to Kinshasa to help MONUC secure elections, Mubake said "no foreign troops will be able to stop" any of this from happening. Mubake said he envisioned the DRC becoming what he called "five Ituris," referring to the volatile northeastern region of the DRC. -------------- THE UDPS "SOLUTION" -------------- ¶5. (C) Mubake did say, however, that certain steps could be taken to avoid such consequences. First, Mubake claimed UDPS President Etienne Tshisekedi could alone "pacify the entire country, even without MONUC." Mubake extolled the UDPS leader as a man of many talents who has been "painted as the devil" by the international community. As such, the international community has "rejected" Tshisekedi and instead embraced the "real devil" of Kabila and the rest of the transitional government. Ultimately, Mubake said, Tshisekedi must be KINSHASA 00000988 002 OF 003 brought back into the political process in order for it to be deemed legitimate. He added that the UDPS has not chosen to boycott the process, but rather, it has been excluded by those in power as well as the international community. Because of this exclusion, Mubake said the UDPS has no responsibility or role to play in convincing voters to choose candidates or parties opposing Kabila. ¶6. (C) Mubake claimed the UDPS would participate in the electoral process if a "dialogue" among the DRC's political class was held and achieved certain goals. Mubake proposed a two-week meeting with the transitional government and other political actors that would focus on only two topics. First, the meeting would deal with how the country could move towards elections with all parties "appeased." The second topic would address the question of how the government would be managed after elections but before the installation of a new president and prime minister. When pressed for details on what exactly "appeasement" entailed, Mubake said certainly the problem of security would have to be addressed, particularly in terms of voter intimidation and personal security for presidential candidates. Mubake admitted as well that in order for there to be "appeasement," the voter registration process would need to be reopened by the CEI. (Note: The CEI has said repeatedly it will not restart voter registration, as the process would be too costly and time-consuming, and lead to further major delays in the elections. End note.) Mubake said, however, that he did not believe such a meeting could ever take place because Kabila and Vice President Bemba would never agree to meet each other and discuss such issues. (Note: This prediction was immediately proven wrong, as Kabila and Bemba, along with the other three vice presidents, met the same day during the "inter-institutional" dialogue, ref A. End note.) Thus, Mubake said he really saw no way for the UDPS to take part in the elections. ¶7. (C) Mubake also said it did not matter if this "dialogue" resulted in a change of the election date past July 30, because the elections have already been set beyond June 30, the official end of the transitional government set by the 2003 Sun City Accords. Mubake said that because the deadline was missed, it is absolutely necessary to negotiate a further extension of the transitional government to legitimize the electoral process. Mubake could not suggest, however, any timeline for when elections could be held and thus how much longer the transition process would need to continue. -------------- INTERNATIONAL "INTERFERENCE" -------------- ¶8. (C) Mubake spent much of the meeting criticizing what he claimed was the "interference" of the international community in the DRC's elections process. Mubake showed PolOff a photocopy of a memo he claimed was written by European Union Ambassador to the DRC Carlo diFilipi that stated the Congolese were "not capable" of running elections by themselves. Mubake said such statements proved the international community, particularly the European Union, consider the Congolese as "sheep waiting to be led." Mubake added that this also proved the international community does not want credible elections in the DRC and that it has already chosen Kabila as its candidate. Mubake alleged as well that the USG was supporting Kabila, though Mubake could not provide any evidence. Nonetheless, Mubake said the USG was the only actor who had the "legitimacy" to resolve the current political crisis, and urged the USG to "distinguish itself positively" in the DRC's affairs. Otherwise, he warned, the problems that will arise after elections are the fault of the international community, and thus its responsibility to resolve. -------------- TAKE MONSENGWO SERIOUSLY -------------- ¶9. (C) Mubake and PolOff also discussed the comments of Kisangani Archbishop Laurent Monsengwo, the president of the National Episcopal Conference of the Congo (CENCO) (ref B). Mubake said Monsengwo carefully chose his words when writing about the possibility of a "new war" in the DRC if no "dialogue" were held before elections. Mubake explained that Monsengwo meant his words as a warning, but said as well they could be considered a threat. Mubake said the Church is a very powerful force in the DRC, perhaps more so than any political party, and Monsengwo's words reach every corner of KINSHASA 00000988 003 OF 003 the DRC. Consequently, people listen and follow the direction of Monsengwo and CENCO. Mubake said that even though the international community has "ignored" the UDPS and its warnings about violence and discord, it should take seriously what Monsengwo is saying, because it will happen. -------------- - COMMENT: UDPS IS THE PROBLEM, NOT THE SOLUTION -------------- - ¶10. (C) Comment: Mubake, who represents the more obstructionist and militant wing of the UDPS, wanted to send a clear message that if the UDPS is not appeased -- which would be impossible in any case -- there will be violence in the DRC. But for Mubake to claim the UDPS has no responsibility in stemming "inevitable" post-election violence because it has been "excluded" from the process is false. The UDPS excluded itself, despite numerous and repeated entreaties from the international community, including Kofi Annan. It has played its cards very poorly, and now is threatening violence as an act of final desperation and cynicism. ¶11. (C) Comment, continued: As for Mubake's proposed "dialogue," it is clear such an idea is untenable as the stated goals would be impossible to achieve. The UDPS still insists that voter registration must be restarted, a demand which the CEI has rightly rejected because of the logistical problems and delays it would cause. Continuing to push for such conditions, while knowing full well they will be rejected, demonstrates the UDPS has no intention of participating in elections or in working to make them more "credible," which it claims must be done. Furthermore, Mubake's claim that it does not matter if elections are held after July 30 indicates the UDPS is not interested in elections ever taking place, despite the overwhelming will of Congolese voters to the contrary. Moreover, Kabila and the four vice presidents declared this week after the June 21 inter-institutional meeting (reftel) that elections will take place on July 30. Discussions are continuing, and once again the UDPS has missed the train. End comment. MEECE