ELECTIONS: PPRD SURPRISINGLY COMPETITIVE IN GRAND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 000793 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KPKO CG UG RW ELECTIONS SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: PPRD SURPRISINGLY COMPETITIVE IN GRAND NORD Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (C) Summary: North Kivu's "Grand Nord" region, the assumed stronghold of candidates and political parties of Nande tribal origin, is undergoing a political transformation of sorts in the months leading up to the DRC's July 30 presidential and legislative elections. Long a power base for national politicians such as Mbusa Nyamwisi and Pierre Pay-Pay (both Nande),the Grand Nord appears to be making room for the distinctly non-Nande People's Party for Reconstruction and Development (PPRD),the party backing DRC President Joseph Kabila. This emerging support for the PPRD may come at the expense of the RCD-K/ML party of Nyamwisi. As a result, the region remains politically active, although fears of post-election violence and foreign interference are widespread. End summary. ¶2. (U) During a May 4-6 visit to North Kivu province, PolOff and EconOff met with a variety of regional authorities and political actors, including officials from the Catholic Church, civil society, political parties and the business community. EmbOffs visited the towns of Beni, Kasindi and Butembo, all of which are situated in North Kivu's "Grand Nord," a region dominated by the Nande tribe. The Nande pride themselves on their enterprise, having created for themselves a regional business network largely without any input from state authorities. (Note: Economic conditions in North Kivu among the Nande community will be reported septel. End note.) The Grand Nord is politically active, with the area serving as a launching pad for the political ambitions of various Nande politicians. -------------- SHIFTING NANDE ALLIANCES -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The dominant political party of the Grand Nord has been the Rally for Congolese Democracy-Kisangani/Liberation Movement (RCD-K/ML),led by former rebel leader and current Minister of Regional Cooperation Mbusa Nyamwisi, himself a Nande. The RCD-K/ML is largely a party built on ethnic Nande identity, garnering little support outside of North Kivu. Yet because of the economic power of the Nande in the region, RCD-K/ML has been able to build a national name for itself, albeit a small one compared to other DRC political parties. Nyamwisi, in an effort to broaden his party's appeal, is running as a candidate for president under the banner of "Forces for Renewal," a coalition of Congolese political parties. (Note: Former National Assembly President Olivier Kamitatu -- who hails from Bandundu province -- and his party, the Alliance for the Renewal of Congo -- are also members of this larger alliance. In the Grand Nord, though, it has been the RCD-K/ML dominating the political scene. End note.) ¶4. (SBU) Despite the past popularity of Nyamwisi, his position as the pre-eminent political leader of the Nande has been challenged in recent months by the candidacy of former Mobutu-period minister Pierre Pay-Pay, also a Nande. Several political observers in North Kivu told PolOff that Nyamwisi's support among the Nande population has been slipping recently because he has not visited the region since announcing his candidacy for president earlier this year. The assistant Bishop of Butembo, Monsignor Emmanuel, speculated that those who would normally support Nyamwisi may now instead consider voting for Pay-Pay for this perceived "slight" by Nyamwisi. PolOff was hard-pressed, however, to discover any visible signs of support for Pay-Pay's Coalition of Congolese Democrats (CODECO) party; in fact, during a four-hour drive between Beni, Kasindi and Butembo, not a single CODECO party flag was seen flying along the route. In addition, the MONUC-Beni Head of Office said Pay-Pay has not visited the region recently either. (Note: Kamitatu and his ARC party were originally aligned with Pay-Pay. While some form of alliance may still exist between them, relations have cooled since ARC has joined Nyamwisi's Forces of Renewal coalition. In any case, alliances will continue to shift in the pre-election period. End note.) ¶5. (C) Part of the reason for Nyamwisi and RCD-K/ML's reported loss of support in North Kivu may lie in the lack of political effectiveness among the party's local officials. PolOff met May 5 in Beni with a delegation of RCD-K/ML representatives, including the local executive secretary in charge of mobilization and an RCD-K/ML candidate for the National Assembly. While the delegates were confident of their chances and eager to begin participating in an electoral campaign, they demonstrated little knowledge or understanding of what would be required to win the elections. The officials routinely complained they lacked adequate financial resources to mount an effective campaign, especially against better-financed political adversaries (i.e., the PPRD),and one legislative candidate directly solicited support from the USG. (Note: Such solicitation, however, is not unique to the RCD-K/ML, as politicians from nearly every party routinely ask Western officials for some form of assistance. End note.) In addition, the officials could not articulate a specific party platform or set of campaign promises, aside from general declarations of "economic reconstruction." -------------- PPRD SUPPORT STRONGER THAN EXPECTED -------------- ¶6. (C) The apparent weakness of the RCD-K/ML and CODECO in the Grand Nord became evident by the surprisingly strong show of support for the People's Party for Reconstruction and Development (PPRD),the political "home" of President Joseph Kabila. Throughout the region, the bright yellow flag of the PPRD could be seen almost everywhere. Between Beni, Kasindi and Butembo, for example, PolOff counted along the main road more than 40 PPRD flags, slightly more than the number of RCD-K/ML flags. In the town of Beni, dozens of youths were seen walking the streets in brand new t-shirts emblazoned with the PPRD logo and a picture of President Kabila. The appearance of both the flags and t-shirts can mostly be attributed to the visit of PPRD General Secretary Vital Kamerhe, who had arrived in Beni May 4 and spoke to a crowd of several hundred during his tour of eastern DRC. RCD-K/ML officials that PolOff spoke to charged that Kamerhe had paid people to show up for the rally with the t-shirts. Nonetheless, RCD-K/ML officials said they considered the PPRD to be their main political opponent in the coming elections -- a sign perhaps that their former dominance is indeed being challenged. Members of Beni's civil society, Monsignor Emmanuel in Butembo, and the Mayor of Butembo, Zebedee Wabunga Sunda, all said the PPRD was well-positioned in the region, and could very well win a majority of legislative seats in Grand Nord districts. -------------- OTHER MINOR PLAYERS -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Aside from the RCD-K/ML and the PPRD, there are a few other, smaller actors vying for political space in the Grand Nord. The most prominent of these parties (again, as evidenced by the number of flags seen flying in the area) is the Convention of Federalists for Christian Democracy (COFEDEC),one of the signatories of the Sun City Accords. The MONUC-Beni Head of Office said COFEDEC enjoys a substantial degree of support among the local population, but others PolOff spoke to considered the party to be strongly allied with the PPRD. Also present in the Grand Nord are the larger Congolese political parties of the Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD, the party of Vice President Azarias Ruberwa) and the Congolese Liberation Movement (MLC, led by Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba). These two parties, though, appear to have a much weaker base in the area, though they are expected to win a handful of seats in the National Assembly from Grand Nord districts. As noted, nowhere to be found in the Grand Nord were flags or signs of support for Pay-Pay's CODECO party. Also missing were any flags of Kamitatu's ARC, which is presumably a critical ally of RCD-K/ML and Nyamwisi's "Forces of Renewal." (Note: The lack of ARC flags in the area, though, may have simply been part of Kamitatu's agreement with Nyamwisi not to complete directly against RCD-K/ML in the Grand Nord. In any case, no voters PolOff met spoke of supporting ARC or Kamitatu. End note.) -------------- FEAR OF SPOILERS AFTER ELECTIONS -------------- ¶8. (U) Throughout the Grand Nord, those potential voters PolOff encountered expressed a strong desire to participate in elections and bring an end to the current transitional government. Many officials, including the local coordinators of the Independent Electoral Commission in Beni and Butembo, pointed to the higher-than-average voter turnout rates during the country's December constitutional referendum. Nearly all Congolese PolOff met said they planned on voting in the July 30 and were confident elections would take place. ¶9. (C) Nearly all voters expressed their fears about the post-election period, when potential "spoilers" may attempt to overturn election results by force of arms. Of particular concern was the question of who controlled elements of the Armed Forces of the DRC (FARDC) stationed in the Grand Nord. These FARDC troops -- members of the 88th and 89th Brigades -- have not yet been through the integration process and are suspected to be under the control of certain Congolese politicians whose loyalties may not lie with the DRC. One persistent rumor shared with PolOff by the local president of Butembo's civil society, as well as regional coordinators of the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI),was that Nyamwisi ultimately controlled these FARDC troops, and might use them to his advantage after elections if he loses. RCD-K/ML officials, however, strongly denied such allegations. This suspicion, however, may give voters another reason to shift their allegiance to other parties. ¶10. (C) Others in Beni and Butembo said they worried about the threats posed by foreign armed groups, particularly the Allied Democratic Forces/National Army for the Liberation of Uganda (ADF/NALU) and the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). The mayors of both Beni and Butembo said they were concerned that not enough was being done by MONUC and the international community to prevent the governments of Uganda or Rwanda from interfering before and after the DRC's elections. MONUC officials said such groups pose a certain security risk to the region, but added that they did not believe they would attempt to prevent elections from taking place. -------------- -------------- COMMENT: PPRD POISED FOR A STRONG SHOWING IN THE GRAND NORD -------------- -------------- ¶11. (C) The PPRD seems to be well-positioned in a region that usually does not support outsiders (i.e., those not of Nande origin). The Nande community itself is divided over two "favorite sons," Nyamwisi and Pay-Pay, providing an opportunity for the PPRD (and thus, President Kabila) to make inroads there. The depth of support for the PPRD in the Grand Nord may not be especially deep, but as the best-financed Congolese political party, it stands a chance of winning National Assembly seats in these districts. The unofficial "flag count" in the Grand Nord would indicated the PPRD has worked its way to a position of relative parity (or at least, visibility) against the traditional favorite, RCD-K/ML. While the PPRD may not possess a political platform any more defined than that of RCD-K/ML (that is, no platform at all), the relative disorganization on the part of the Nyamwisi's party has opened up opportunities for the PPRD. The Nande of the Grand Nord are committed to the electoral process and will likely turn out in significant numbers to vote on July ¶30. End comment. MEECE